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Bank of Canada is more worried than usual about debt loads

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The Bank of Canada is more worried than it was last year about household debt loads, and is concerned about the abilities for households to stay on top of them in the coming years once mortgages renew at higher rates.

That’s one of the main takeaways of the bank’s Financial System Review, an annual assessment of various risks the bank deems to be of concern to the stability of Canada’s financial system.

While the bank highlighted the risks of cybersecurity attacks, the ongoing global banking crisis and climate change, the risk presented by growing mortgage debt was a recurring theme throughout the document.

After slashing them in the early days of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate aggressively last year.

While the move appears to have achieved its desired effect of bringing down inflation, it came with the collateral damage of walloping variable rate mortgages, as the bank’s rate moved from barely above zero in early 2022 to 4.5 per cent presently.



While only about one-quarter of mortgage holders have a variable rate loan, the effect of rate hikes has been dramatic, adding thousands of dollars to the periodic payments in many cases and extending the life of the loan by years if not decades.

In 2019, less than one-fifth of new mortgages were amortized for longer than 25 years. Last year, almost half of new loans were stretched out over a longer period.

Existing mortgages, many of which have been insulated from rate hikes so far, will start to feel their impact in the coming years as they renew, and the bank is worried about what might happen when they do.

“The decline in house prices has also reduced homeowner equity, and some signs of financial stress — particularly among recent homebuyers — are beginning to appear,” the bank said.

By the end of 2026, nearly all mortgage holders will have seen their payments increase. The bank says if rates evolve the way financial markets expect, the typical mortgage payment will be about 20 per cent higher over the next three years.

Financial stresses appearing

The numbers show that the financial stresses on households that the bank is worried about are already starting to appear.

The average debt service ratio — the percentage of a household’s total income that goes toward paying their mortgage — rose from 16 per cent to more than 19 per cent last year. That’s the highest level on record in at least a decade.

And the percentage of all mortgages where the DSR is in excess of 25 per cent skyrocketed, from 12 per cent in 2021 to 29 per cent by the end of last year.

 

Rising mortgage rates ward off potential homebuyers

4 months ago

Duration 2:04

Higher mortgage rates are dissuading potential homebuyers across Canada, according to new housing numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association, while some sellers are failing to turn a profit on previously high-priced properties.

Given the amount of money it’s taking to cover the mortgage, it’s no surprise that many of those households are having a harder time staying on top of their other debts.

The bank says that households that took on a mortgage since 2020 are carrying about 17 per cent more credit card debt on average than those that took out a mortgage in the three years leading up to the pandemic. Arrears on credit cards have also been rising and are close to pre-pandemic levels.

Royce Mendes, an economist with Desjardins, recently warned about the looming risk of mortgage debt, calling it a “ticking time bomb” in a report last week. It’s clear the central bank is thinking the same thing, he said Thursday.

“The Bank of Canada is worried about the same thing we are: mortgage renewals a few years in the future.”

Robert Kavcic, an economist with Bank of Montreal, said in a report to clients that while debt loads of all forms are indeed ticking higher, he doesn’t expect it to become a major shock to the system because higher rates are being absorbed slowly.

“The characteristics of the Canadian mortgage market have been extremely important in containing the early damage from the tightening cycle (e.g., the lack of immediate payment shock is a key reason we are not seeing forced selling in the housing market),” he said.

“It buys households and the economy time to absorb higher rates … the mortgage market is not a time bomb, but more of persistent headwind that will blow for a few years going forward.”

 

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Tampa Bay Lightning select Victor Hedman as captain, succeeding Steven Stamkos

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TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.

Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.

“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”

The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.

Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.

___

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Toronto FC Jason Hernandez looks to clean up salary cap and open up the future

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TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.

That has been easier said than done this season.

Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.

But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.

“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”

The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.

Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.

“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”

While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.

TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”

“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.

While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.

“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”

Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.

Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.

MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.

Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.

Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.

There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.

Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.

Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.

Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.

Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.

The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.

While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.

Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.

“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.

“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.

But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.

“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”

After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024



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Canada’s Hughes may be what International team has been missing at Presidents Cup

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Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.

Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.

His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.

“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.

“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”

Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.

Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.

However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).

“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.

“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”

It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.

“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”

This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.

“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour

“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”

Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.

He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.

“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”

An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.

Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.

“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”

DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.

KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.

CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.

LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.

EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.



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