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Bank of Canada keeps its foot on the gas, but hints at changes to come – Financial Post

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Kevin Carmichael: Intends to keep up bond buying but policy-makers are feeling better about economy’s prospects

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Canada’s central bank is getting ready to take its foot off the gas, but it intends to proceed at full throttle for now.

The Bank of Canada acknowledged it had underestimated the economy’s ability to power through the second wave of COVID-19 infections, scrapping its January prediction that gross domestic product (GDP) would contract in the first quarter of 2021.

“Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected,” the central bank said in an updated policy statement on March 10. “Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.”

Indeed. GDP jumped to an annual rate of 9.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, forcing Bay Street economists to upgrade their outlooks for 2021. Commodity prices have surged along with the global recovery, allowing Canada to record a rare trade surplus in January — and the widest one since July 2014. The real-estate market is so hot that Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem last month said he was starting to see early signs of “excess exuberance.”

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Still, the hole left by the COVID-19 crisis is immense and the climb out will be long. The Bank of Canada reiterated that it currently intends to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 per cent until sometime in 2023, and that it will continue to create money to purchase at least $4-billion worth of Government of Canada bonds each week “until the recovery is well underway.”

Policy-makers observed that the labour market is “a long way from recovery,” and they said the spread of COVID-19 variants represents a significant threat. There was speculation on Bay Street that the central bank would clearly state its intention to taper its bond purchases, but the central bank isn’t ready to make such a hard pivot. Things could still take a turn for the worse.

“We don’t get the bullishness around the Canadian economy versus the U.S. economy,” said Tom O’Gorman, director of fixed income at Franklin Templeton Canada. “It just doesn’t make sense when one economy (Canada) is based on residential housing and latent consumer consumption, versus the U.S., where you are way ahead with vaccines.”

Canada will benefit from the U.S. recovery, of course. President Joe Biden’s US$1.9-trillion stimulus package, which cleared Congress on March 10, will increase economic output in Canada and Mexico by between 0.5 and one percentage point, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a revised forecast this week.

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The OECD sees Canada’s GDP expanding 4.7 per cent this year, a 1.2-percentage-point increase from its previous outlook in December. That would only partially make up for 2020’s historic 5.4-per-cent drop, which explains why the central bank is inclined to let the economy run hot until inflation becomes a significant problem.

Macklem and his deputies on the Governing Council mostly brushed aside worries about inflation. They attributed the recent jump in bond yields to repricing related to the “improved U.S. growth outlook.”

They observed that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is on the low side of their comfort zone, adding they expect economic weakness will continue to exert downward pressure on prices for a while yet. They are also betting that a strong recovery leads to new capacity that will absorb increased demand.

“A more resilient Canadian economy implies less scarring from the pandemic, which suggests growth can be stronger without becoming inflationary,” Sri Thanabalasingam, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a research note. “This offers room for the bank to maintain monetary stimulus at its current level.”


  1. Bank of Canada maintains interest rate: Read the official statement


  2. Investors brace for Bank of Canada taper


  3. OECD doubles U.S. growth forecast, predicting boom will spill over into Canada

To be sure, the Bank of Canada is keeping an eye on the economic dashboard, where more and more indicators are coming up positive. Policy-makers reiterated that their pledge to keep the benchmark rate near zero until 2023 is based on their outlook in January, which is now outdated. A continued run of strong numbers could force a tweak to the timing of higher interest rates.

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Macklem and his deputies also re-upped a hint that they could be getting closer to tapering their asset purchases, which will probably precede an interest-rate increase. “As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required,” they said.

The central bank now expects growth in the first quarter, rather than a contraction, so it is clearly gaining confidence in the recovery. Policy-makers next meet to discuss interest rates in April. If current trends continue, a policy adjustment could occur then.

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter:

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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