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Bank of Canada keeps its foot on the gas, but hints at changes to come – Financial Post

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Kevin Carmichael: Intends to keep up bond buying but policy-makers are feeling better about economy’s prospects

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Canada’s central bank is getting ready to take its foot off the gas, but it intends to proceed at full throttle for now.

The Bank of Canada acknowledged it had underestimated the economy’s ability to power through the second wave of COVID-19 infections, scrapping its January prediction that gross domestic product (GDP) would contract in the first quarter of 2021.

“Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected,” the central bank said in an updated policy statement on March 10. “Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.”

Indeed. GDP jumped to an annual rate of 9.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, forcing Bay Street economists to upgrade their outlooks for 2021. Commodity prices have surged along with the global recovery, allowing Canada to record a rare trade surplus in January — and the widest one since July 2014. The real-estate market is so hot that Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem last month said he was starting to see early signs of “excess exuberance.”

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Still, the hole left by the COVID-19 crisis is immense and the climb out will be long. The Bank of Canada reiterated that it currently intends to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 per cent until sometime in 2023, and that it will continue to create money to purchase at least $4-billion worth of Government of Canada bonds each week “until the recovery is well underway.”

Policy-makers observed that the labour market is “a long way from recovery,” and they said the spread of COVID-19 variants represents a significant threat. There was speculation on Bay Street that the central bank would clearly state its intention to taper its bond purchases, but the central bank isn’t ready to make such a hard pivot. Things could still take a turn for the worse.

“We don’t get the bullishness around the Canadian economy versus the U.S. economy,” said Tom O’Gorman, director of fixed income at Franklin Templeton Canada. “It just doesn’t make sense when one economy (Canada) is based on residential housing and latent consumer consumption, versus the U.S., where you are way ahead with vaccines.”

Canada will benefit from the U.S. recovery, of course. President Joe Biden’s US$1.9-trillion stimulus package, which cleared Congress on March 10, will increase economic output in Canada and Mexico by between 0.5 and one percentage point, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a revised forecast this week.

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The OECD sees Canada’s GDP expanding 4.7 per cent this year, a 1.2-percentage-point increase from its previous outlook in December. That would only partially make up for 2020’s historic 5.4-per-cent drop, which explains why the central bank is inclined to let the economy run hot until inflation becomes a significant problem.

Macklem and his deputies on the Governing Council mostly brushed aside worries about inflation. They attributed the recent jump in bond yields to repricing related to the “improved U.S. growth outlook.”

They observed that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is on the low side of their comfort zone, adding they expect economic weakness will continue to exert downward pressure on prices for a while yet. They are also betting that a strong recovery leads to new capacity that will absorb increased demand.

“A more resilient Canadian economy implies less scarring from the pandemic, which suggests growth can be stronger without becoming inflationary,” Sri Thanabalasingam, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a research note. “This offers room for the bank to maintain monetary stimulus at its current level.”


  1. Bank of Canada maintains interest rate: Read the official statement


  2. Investors brace for Bank of Canada taper


  3. OECD doubles U.S. growth forecast, predicting boom will spill over into Canada

To be sure, the Bank of Canada is keeping an eye on the economic dashboard, where more and more indicators are coming up positive. Policy-makers reiterated that their pledge to keep the benchmark rate near zero until 2023 is based on their outlook in January, which is now outdated. A continued run of strong numbers could force a tweak to the timing of higher interest rates.

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Macklem and his deputies also re-upped a hint that they could be getting closer to tapering their asset purchases, which will probably precede an interest-rate increase. “As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required,” they said.

The central bank now expects growth in the first quarter, rather than a contraction, so it is clearly gaining confidence in the recovery. Policy-makers next meet to discuss interest rates in April. If current trends continue, a policy adjustment could occur then.

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter:

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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