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Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut on persistent slowdown

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Stephen Poloz, one of the few central bankers to resist the global push toward easier monetary policy last year, said the door is open for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates if the current economic slowdown persists.

The governor, speaking to reporters after a rate decision Wednesday that left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent, said growing slack in the economy threatens to dampen inflation pressures. The central bank chose not to cut, however, because policy makers didn’t want to fuel household debt levels that remain a vulnerability to the economy.

“I’m not saying that the door is not open to an interest rate cut, obviously it is, it is open,” Poloz said when pressed on the issue, adding borrowing costs remain “appropriate” for the time being.

The more negative outlook is a departure from recent communications in which officials sought to accentuate the positives of an economy that had been running near capacity and was deemed resilient in the face of global uncertainty. Wednesday’s decision still leaves the Bank of Canada with the highest policy rate among major advanced economies, but the downturn in domestic economic data since the end of last year has clearly spooked policy makers.

Canada’s currency sold off after the decision, depreciating as much as 0.6 per cent to $1.3146 against its U.S. counterpart at 12:33 p.m. Toronto time. Two-year government bond yields dropped 7 basis points to 1.58 per cent. Investors ramped up bets for rate cuts over the next year, with a move fully priced in over the next 12 months. On Tuesday, markets were pricing in a 50 per cent chance.

Poloz is ‘keeping the door open’ for future rate cuts: Frances Donald

The Bank of Canada has held rates at 1.7 per cent, but Frances Donald, chief economist and head of Macro Strategy at Manulife Investment Management, says that Governer Stephen Poloz is “keeping the door open” for future rate cuts. She says this decision signals deepening concerns over the state of the economy.

Heightened Concern

At its decision Wednesday, which kept rates steady for a 10th straight decision, the Bank of Canada expressed heightened concern about an economy that may have stalled in the fourth quarter. Policy makers revised near-term growth projections and expressed concern global weakness may be spreading to households, affecting domestic spending more than thought. They also seem to be entertaining the idea that underlying factors may be behind the slowdown, rather than temporary drivers.

It’s a change in tone that reflects a shift in growth risks in recent months from global to domestic. Three months ago, the central bank was highlighting the nation’s resiliency to elevated international risks. Snce then domestic economic concerns have come to the forefront.

“In determining the future path for the Bank’s policy interest rate, Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast,” policy makers said in the rate statement. “In assessing incoming data, the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.”

The near-term slowdown coupled with a slight upward revision to potential growth prompted the central bank to increase its estimate for the amount of slack in the economy — from about 0.25% of output in the third quarter to about 0.75 per cent. The bank also projected the economy will be in a state of excess capacity through the end of 2021. That build up in slack — which bolsters the case for a rate cut — is being weighed against the possibility that lower interest rates will fuel financial vulnerabilities, Poloz said at the press conference.

All things considered, “it was Governing Council’s view that the balance of risks does not warrant lower interest rates at this time,” Poloz said. “Clearly, this balance can change over time as the data evolve.”

The bank has been here before. In October, officials acknowledged they considered an “insurance” rate cut to counter growing risks associated with global trade tensions, ultimately deciding against it. Poloz indicated the motives for a future move would now be different.

‘Meaningful Shortfall’

If the bank cuts in the future, “it would not be a cut against a hypothetical or a possibility” rather it would mean that the forecast was showing a “meaningful shortfall on our inflation target,” he said.

Even while cutting near-term forecasts, long-term estimates for growth were mostly unchanged from October, with a slightly lower growth forecast in 2020 of 1.6 per cent, but 2021 faster than previously forecast at two per cent.

This suggests the base case scenario at the bank remains that the slowdown that began in the second half of last year will be temporary. The Bank of Canada anticipates that over the next two years household spending will pick up, helped in part by a recent tax cut, as will exports and business investment. It also anticipates inflation will stay around the  target over the projection horizon.

–With assistance from Shelly Hagan.

Should household debt levels prevent the Bank of Canada from cutting rates?

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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