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Bank of Canada raises interest rate again — but the pace of hikes may be slowing

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Canada’s central bank continued its campaign to wrestle high inflation into submission on Wednesday, raising its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s rate — officially known as the target for the overnight rate — is the amount that retail banks are charged for short-term loans.

But it filters down into the economy by influencing the rates that Canadians get from their own lenders on things like savings accounts and mortgages.

After slashing its lending rate to near zero early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the bank has raised its benchmark rate six times since March, as it scrambles to rein in inflation, which has run up to its highest level in decades.

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While the move will likely help bring down the cost of living in the long run by compelling Canadians to spend and borrow less, it will only increase the pain for consumers and businesses that are already feeling the pain of inflation and higher borrowing costs.

The bank was widely expected to raise its rate, as the country’s inflation rate is still more than twice as high as the range it likes to see. But the increase of 50 basis points is less than the 75 points that some economists and investors were anticipating.

 

How will this rate hike affect you?

 

On the streets of Toronto, Canadians told CBC News how the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates will impact their finances.

That could be a sign the central bank is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, but in its statement, the bank made it clear that rates “will need to rise further.”

Karyne Charbonneau, executive director of economics at CIBC Capital Markets, said the bank’s decision to slow the pace of its rate increases means “we are getting closer to the end of the hiking cycle and … steps of 75 basis points are now behind us.”

But she thinks another half percentage point is likely coming, and “rates will have to stay at that level at least through the end of 2023 to help bring inflation back down to target.”

The goal of the bank’s rate hikes is to bring down demand for all kinds of goods and services that have seen a surge in recent months. The most direct impact of the increases so far has been on the mortgage market, where the price to borrow money has roughly tripled since February.

Generally speaking, a 50-point hike in the bank’s rate, such as the one announced on Wednesday, will add about $30 per month to every variable rate loan, for every $100,000 owed. As an example, a borrower who was paying 4.25 per cent on a standard $400,000 mortgage will see their monthly payment go from $2,159 before to $2,270 after, which works out to an extra $1,300 a year — and that’s on top of the five previous rate hikes this year.

Ahmad Syed and his wife, Hira Ahmad, recently purchased a home in Elmsdale, N.S. They were pre-approved for a variable rate mortgage in February and took possession in June, and say the speed at which the numbers have changed in six short months has taken their breath away.

Ahmad Syed, left, and his wife, Hira Ahmad, who recently purchased a home in Nova Scotia, say they’re shocked at the pace of increases to their mortgage rate. (Eric Woolliscroft/CBC)

Their home loan now costs them an extra $1,000 more every month than they had planned. And while they are keeping their heads above water for now, they’ve had to cut their other spending categories down to nothing, cancelling plans for a new car and rethinking travel plans.

“I’m not sure how the average Canadian is going to pay their mortgage now because if it keeps increasing like this, it will be very difficult,” Syed said.

They feel like innocent victims of the central bank’s fight against inflation. “Who is responsible for the inflation in the first place?” Ahmad asked. “Why should I be paying for all these mistakes? The Bank of Canada is punishing us for something that we didn’t do.”

Rate hike won’t help combat food inflation

Food prices have been a major source of pain for consumers of late, with grocery prices increasing at a pace of more than 11 per cent in the last year, according to the latest Statistics Canada numbers.

Many, including federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, have put the blame for high food prices at the feet of corporate profiteering, using the term “greedflation” in a series of social media posts.

Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said that argument doesn’t add up, since food prices are up by far more in other countries than they are in Canada. “I know that food prices are high and rising and this is causing pain, but there are important macro drivers to consider that don’t make it quite as simple as playing the blame game and bashing corporations,” he said.

 

Interest rate hike less than expected but still ‘significant,’ says economist

Derek Burleton, chief economist for TD Bank, reacts to the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis-point interest rate increase and how high he anticipates it may go.

CBC News asked the central bank why Canadians should expect this rate hike to bring down food prices when the previous ones offered little relief in the grocery aisle, and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said the bank is keeping a close eye on what extent food companies will pass on the cost savings they are starting to see in their supply chain.

“Our goal of getting the excess demand out of the economy … will help to restore the competitive pressure and will prevent retailers from from just passing through all the costs,” she said. “[It] will bring the competition back. That’ll put downward pressure on prices.”

‘No easy outs’

Bank officials made it clear in a press conference following the decision that they are trying to find a balance between doing too much versus too little to fight inflation. They acknowledged the task will be a difficult and possibly painful one.

“There are no easy outs to restoring price stability,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said. “If we don’t do enough, Canadians will continue to endure the hardship of high inflation. And they will come to expect persistently high inflation, which will require much higher interest rates and potentially a severe recession to control inflation,” he said.

“Nobody wants that.”

Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist at Desjardins, said he expects the central bank to raise its benchmark rate again at its next policy meeting in December, but he’d be surprised if there are more beyond that.

“Right now, with inflation having peaked, it is … time to really hit the pause button and really be open to the possibility of having to roll back some of those hikes in 2023, if inflation moderates faster than expected or we see a recession that is perhaps more severe than we hoped for,” he told CBC News in an interview.

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Gildan replacing five directors ahead of AGM, will back two Browning West nominees – Yahoo Canada Finance

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MONTREAL — Gildan Activewear Inc. is making changes to its board of directors in an attempt to head off a move by an activist shareholder looking to replace a majority of the board at its annual meeting next month.

U.S. investment firm Browning West wants to replace eight of Gildan’s 12 directors with its own nominees in a move to bring back founder Glenn Chamandy as chief executive.

Gildan, which announced late last year that Chamandy would be replaced by Vince Tyra, said Monday it will replace five members of its board of directors ahead of its annual meeting set for May 28.

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It also says current board members Luc Jobin and Chris Shackelton will not run for re-election and that it will recommend shareholders vote for Karen Stuckey and J.P. Towner, who are two of Browning West’s eight nominees.

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The new directors who will join the Gildan board on May 1 are Tim Hodgson, Lee Bird, Jane Craighead, Lynn Loewen and Les Viner. They will replace Donald Berg, Maryse Bertrand, Shirley Cunningham, Charles Herington and Craig Leavitt.

Hodgson, who served as chief executive of Goldman Sachs Canada from 2005 to 2010, is expected to replace Berg as chair.

“I look forward to working with this highly qualified board and management team to realize the full benefits of Vince’s ambitious yet realistic plan to drive growth by enhancing the Gildan sustainable growth strategy,” Hodgson said in a statement.

“The refreshed board and I fully believe in Vince and his talented team as well as Gildan’s leading market position and growth prospects.”

Gildan has been embroiled in controversy ever since it announced Chamandy was being replaced by Tyra.

The company has said Chamandy had no credible long-term strategy and had lost the board’s confidence. But several of Gildan’s investors have criticized the company for the move and called for his return.

Those investors include the company’s largest shareholder, Jarislowsky Fraser, as well as Browning West and Turtle Creek Asset Management.

In announcing the board changes, Gildan said it met with shareholders including those who Browning West has counted as supportive.

“Our slate strikes a balance between ensuring the board retains historical continuity during a period of transition and provides fresh perspectives to ensure it continues to serve its important oversight function on behalf of all shareholders,” the company said.

Gildan said last month that it has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider a “non-binding expression of interest” from an unnamed potential purchaser and contact other potential bidders.

But Browning West and Turtle Creek have said the current board cannot be trusted to oversee a sale of the company.

The company said Monday that there continues to be external interest in acquiring the company and the process is ongoing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 22, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GIL)

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Ottawa puts up $50M in federal budget to hedge against job-stealing AI – CP24

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Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press


Published Sunday, April 21, 2024 4:02PM EDT


Last Updated Sunday, April 21, 2024 4:04PM EDT

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Worried artificial intelligence is coming for your job? So is the federal government — enough, at least, to set aside $50 million for skills retraining for workers.

One of the centrepiece promises in the federal budget released Tuesday was $2.3 billion in investments aiming to boost adoption of the technology and the artificial intelligence industry in Canada.

But tucked alongside that was a promise to invest $50 million over four years “to support workers who may be impacted by AI.” Workers in “potentially disrupted sectors and communities” will receive new skills training through the Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

“There is a significant transformation of the economy and society on the horizon around artificial intelligence,” said Joel Blit, an associate professor of economics at the University of Waterloo.

Some jobs will be lost, others will be created, “but there’s going to be a transition period that could be somewhat chaotic.”

While jokes about robots coming to take jobs predate the emergence of generative AI systems in late 2022, the widespread availability of systems like ChatGPT made those fears real for many, even as workers across industries began integrating the technology into their workday.

In June 2023, a briefing note for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland warned the impact of generative AI “will be felt across all industries and around 40 per cent of all working hours could be impacted.”

“Banking, insurance and energy appear to have higher potential for automation compared to other sectors,” says the note, obtained through access to information and citing information from Accenture.

“This could have substantial impacts on jobs and skills requirements.”

The budget only singles out “creative industries” as an affected sector that will be covered by the program. In February, the Canadian TV, film, and music industries asked MPs for protection against AI, saying the tech threatens their livelihood and reputations.

Finance Canada did not respond to questions asking what other sectors or types of jobs would be covered under the program.

“The creative industries was used as an illustrative example, and not intended as an exclusion of other affected areas,” deputy Finance spokesperson Caroline Thériault said in a statement.

In an interview earlier this year, Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said unions representing actors and directors have been very worried about how their likenesses or their work could be used by AI systems. But the “reality is that we have to look at the implication of AI in all jobs,” she said.

Blit explained large language models and other generative AI can write, come up with new ideas and then test those ideas, analyze data, as well as generate computer programming code, music, images, and video.

Those set to be affected are individuals in white-collar professions, like people working in marketing, health care, law and accounting.

In the longer run, “it’s actually quite hard to predict who is going to be impacted,” he said. “What’s going to happen is that entire industries, entire processes are going to be reimagined around this new technology.”

AI is an issue “across sectors, but certainly clerical and customer service jobs are more vulnerable,” Hugh Pouliot, a spokesperson for the Canadian Union of Public Employees, said in an email.

The federal government has used AI in nearly 300 projects and initiatives, new research published earlier this month revealed.

According to Viet Vu, manager of economic research at Toronto Metropolitan University’s the Dais, the impact of AI on workers in a sector like the creative industry doesn’t have to be negative.

“That’s only the case if you adopt it irresponsibly,” he said, pointing out creative professionals have been adopting new digital tools in their work for years.

He noted only four per cent of Canadian businesses are using any kind of artificial intelligence or machine learning. “And so we’re really not there yet for these frontier models and frontier technologies” to be making an impact.

When it comes to the question of how AI will affect the labour market, it’s more useful to think about what types of tasks technology can do better, as opposed to whether it will replace entire jobs, Vu said.

“A job is composed of so many different tasks that sometimes even if a new technology comes along and 20, 30 per cent of your job can be done using AI, you still have that 60, 70 per cent left,” he said.

“So it’s rare that (an) entire occupation is actually sort of erased out of existence because of technology.”

Finance Canada also did not respond to questions about what new skills the workers would be learning.

Vu said there are two types of skills it makes sense to focus on in retraining — computational thinking, or understanding how computers operate and make decisions, and skills dealing with data.

There is no AI system in the world that does not use data, he said. “And so being able to actually understand how data is curated, how data is used, even some basic data analytics skills, will go a really long way.”

But given the scope of the change the AI technology is set to trigger, critics say a lot more than $50 million will be necessary.

Blit said the money is a good first step but won’t be “close to enough” when it comes to the scale of the coming transformation, which will be comparable to globalization or the adoption of computers.

Valerio De Stefano, Canada research chair in innovation law and society at York University, agreed more resources will be necessary.

“Jobs may be reduced to an extent that reskilling may be insufficient,” and the government should look at “forms of unconditional income support such as basic income,” he said.

The government should also consider demanding AI companies “contribute directly to pay for any social initiative that takes care of people who lose their jobs to technology” and asking “employers who reduce payrolls and increase profits thanks to AI to do the same.”

“Otherwise, society will end up subsidizing tech businesses and other companies as they increase profit without giving back enough for technology to benefit us all.”

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Honda to build electric vehicles and battery plant in Ontario, sources say – Global News

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Honda Canada is set to build an electric vehicle battery plant near its auto manufacturing facility in Alliston, Ont., where it also plans to produce fully electric vehicles, The Canadian Press has learned.

Senior sources with information on the project confirmed the federal and Ontario governments will make the announcement this week, but were not yet able to give any dollar figures.

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However, comments Monday from Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli suggest it is a project worth around $14 billion or $15 billion.

Ford told a First Nations conference that there will be an announcement this week about a new deal he said will be double the size of a Volkswagen deal announced last year. That EV battery plant set to be built in St. Thomas, Ont., comes with a $7-billion capital price tag.

Fedeli would not confirm if Ford was referencing Honda, but spoke coyly after question period Monday about the amount of electric vehicle investment in the province.

“We went from zero to $28 billion in three years and if the premier, if his comments are correct, then next week, we’ll be announcing $43 billion … in and around there,” he said.

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The Honda facility will be the third electric vehicle battery plant in Ontario, following in the footsteps of Volkswagen and a Stellantis LG plant in Windsor, and while those two deals involved billions of dollars in production subsidies as a way of competing with the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, Honda’s is expected to involve capital commitments and tax credits.


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Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s recent budget announced a 10-per-cent Electric Vehicle Supply Chain investment tax credit on the cost of buildings related to EV production as long as the business invests in assembly, battery production and cathode active material production in Canada.

That’s on top of an existing 30-per-cent Clean Technology Manufacturing investment tax credit on the cost of investments in new machinery and equipment.

Honda’s deal also involves two key parts suppliers for their batteries — cathodes and separators — with the locations of those facilities elsewhere in Ontario set to be announced at a later date.

The deal comes after years of meetings and discussions between Honda executives and the Ontario government, the sources said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Doug Ford and Honda executives were on hand in March 2022 in Alliston when the Japanese automaker announced hybrid production at the facility, with $131.6 million in assistance from each of the two levels of government.

Around the time of that announcement, conversations began about a larger potential investment into electric vehicles, the sources said, and negotiations began that summer.

Fedeli travelled to Japan that fall, the first of three visits to meet with Honda Motor executives about the project. Senior officials from the company in Japan also travelled to Toronto three times to meet with government officials, including twice with Ford.

During a trip by the Honda executives to Toronto in March 2023, Ontario officials including Fedeli pitched the province as a prime destination for electric vehicle and battery investments, part of a strong push from the government to make Ford’s vision of an end-to-end electric vehicle supply chain in the province a reality.

Negotiations took a major step forward that July, when Ontario sent a formal letter to Honda Canada, signalling its willingness to offer incentives for a battery plant and EV production. Honda Canada executives then met with Ford in November and December.

The latter meeting sealed the deal, the sources said.

Honda approached the federal government a few months ago, a senior government official said, and Freeland led her government’s negotiations with the company.

The project is expected to involve the construction of several plants, according to the source.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa.

&copy 2024 The Canadian Press

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