Bank of Canada rate hike seen as 'canary in a coal mine' as Fed decision looms | Canada News Media
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Bank of Canada rate hike seen as ‘canary in a coal mine’ as Fed decision looms

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The Bank of Canada‘s surprise decision to raise its benchmark interest rate June 7 sent ripples through global bond markets and has added an extra dose of uncertainty to the upcoming June 14 rate announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Both the Canadian and Australian central banks surprised markets by raising rates last week, leading to a slump in global bonds and speculation that the Fed might follow suit. The Fed, however, has been vocal in signalling that it will hold this week, with markets placing odds of a hold at 75 per cent. That looked even more likely after May inflation checked in Tuesday at four per cent, the lowest level in two years.

But the Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point hike to 4.75 per cent ended what had been a five-month pause, suggesting to some that the economic winds were changing, and increasing the potential the Fed isn’t done raising rates.

What happened?

Following the Bank of Canada’s announcement, the yield on two-year Canadian bonds tacked on more than 20 basis points.

Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said the central bank’s decision “blew a foul stench over world bond markets.”

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, said that by not waiting until July and appearing to be less patient, the Bank of Canada had also made another move upward more likely.

“Bond yields in both countries could see further upward pressure from here to September, as markets will price in risks of subsequent hikes for a while, and will also feel the impact of a rush of U.S. Treasury supply as the government replenishes its cash position with the debt ceiling deal now achieved,” he said.

What did the Canadian hike signal?

Though the direct impact was limited, ending the pause launched in January gave markets something of a reality check in terms of the risks surrounding the outlook for major central banks such as the Fed, said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC. Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images files

“Market participants are viewing the Bank of Canada’s return to rate hikes as a bit of a canary in a coal mine,” Mendes said, adding that the Bank of Canada’s move could be a leading indicator of what other central banks might have to do to contain inflationary pressures.

Canada, however, did not act alone. Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking last week against consensus expectations of a hold was also a major part of the reaction from global markets.

“It’s this sort of accumulation of evidence that maybe central banks across the world are going to have to do a bit more in order to get inflation under control, which has had this effect on global markets,” Brown said.

Is it unusual for global markets to react to a Canadian rate hike? Why is this time different?

Mendes said it’s somewhat unusual for markets to be reacting so strongly to developments here in Canada. However, he said the Bank of Canada has been at times a leader in terms of changing the global narrative surrounding monetary policy and this could be one of those times.

The Bank of Canada was certainly seen as leading the selloff in global developed markets’ sovereign bonds immediately after the announcement of a rate hike, he added.

“Canada is typically a relatively small jurisdiction and so it doesn’t take up too much space in the minds of investors, but given that the decision by the Bank of Canada could have implications for other central banks, it is being seen by traders as a potential turning point in central bank policy,” Mendes said.

While normally unusual for relatively small central banks to be dictating global market moves to this extent, the Bank of Canada was one of the most aggressive central banks among advanced economies in terms of hiking last year, he said. The Bank of Canada hiking 100 basis point hike in July last year sent shockwaves through global markets as well because it suggested that all central banks would have to follow similar aggressive strategies, Brown added.

“There’s not been a major effect but it certainly has pushed the investor consensus more towards this idea that the Fed will probably need to hike again in July and certainly that rate cuts will probably come a bit later than previously expected,” he said.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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