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Bank of Canada says cap on foreign students to relieve some pressure in housing market

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A for rent sign hangs outside a home in Toronto on July 12, 2022.COLE BURSTON/The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada said on Wednesday that new limits on international students will bring some relief to the housing market, which has seen explosive growth in rents and become a major source of inflationary pressure.

On Monday, the federal government announced that it was temporarily capping the number of study visas issued to foreign students. This year, Ottawa will approve roughly 360,000 permits, a decrease of 35 per cent from 2023. Because the visas will be allotted to the provinces on a per capita basis, B.C. and Ontario – which host the overwhelming majority of international students – will experience a drastic pullback in new enrolments.

“What’s happened in the Canadian economy over the last year is we had a particularly big surge in population growth through immigration. It came at a time when there was constrained supply” in the housing market, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said at a press conference on Wednesday, shortly after the central bank announced it was holding its benchmark interest rate at 5 per cent.

“The policies that were announced are on their way to sort of relieving some of that pressure,” she added. “We’ll see how they play out.”

The Bank of Canada delved into persistently high shelter inflation in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which was published alongside the rate decision. Rents have risen by 7.7 per cent over the past year, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index, more than double the general inflation rate.

The combination of a long-standing shortage of homes and stronger demand from newcomers has driven the overall housing vacancy rate to record lows, leading to higher rents and keeping real estate at elevated prices, the bank said in its report.

The trouble is that these supply-and-demand fundamentals are expected to persist. “While recent government actions should help moderate some of these constraints, the imbalances are expected to be resolved only gradually,” the bank’s report said.

Over the 12 months to Oct. 1, 2023, the Canadian population rose by roughly 1.25 million people, or 3.2 per cent, the strongest pace of growth since the 1950s. Most of that increase came from temporary residents, such as international students and foreign workers, who tend to rent.

“There’s little mystery behind the ongoing surge in rents,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said in a recent note to investors, pointing to “rollicking population growth.”

The federal government recently told The Globe and Mail that slightly more than one million people held valid study permits at the end of last year, more than half of whom were in Ontario. This amounts to a significant increase from around 350,000 in 2015.

Economists at some of Canada’s major banks have recently called on the federal government to rein in the number of newcomers, particularly when it comes to temporary residents, for whom there were no permit limits until Ottawa’s recent action on students.

The Bank of Canada expects the housing market will continue to present a challenge in wrestling inflation back to its 2-per-cent target.

In December, shelter inflation rose 6 per cent on a year-over-year basis, according to Statscan. Beyond rents, the sharp increase in mortgage interest payments – which have increased by nearly 30 per cent over the past year – has made a large contribution to above-target inflation.

“Over the next few years, shelter services price inflation is expected to decline modestly and act as a material headwind against the return of inflation to the 2-per-cent target,” the central bank’s MPR said.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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