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Bank of Canada says full recovery from virus will take two years

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The Bank of Canada pledged for the first time to keep interest rates at historically low levels for years to come to help spur the nation’s economic recovery.

At a decision Wednesday, the central bank left its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent, what policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem consider the lowest it can go. They also promised to keep the benchmark there until unemployment falls closer to pre-pandemic levels and inflation returns sustainably to their 2 per cent target. That would suggest rates won’t rise until after 2022, based on the bank’s new quarterly forecasts.

The move is the strongest commitment yet by the central bank that it will do whatever it takes to help Canada emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. Calling the hole left in the economy by COVID-19 the steepest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression, policy makers hope the certainty of low interest rates will spur households and businesses to borrow and spend.

“Our message to Canadians is that interest rates are very low and they are going to be there for a long time,” Macklem told reporters after the policy statement. “We have been unusually clear about the future path of interest rates.”

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The Canadian dollar rose after the statement, trading at $1.3513 per U.S. dollar at 12:40 p.m. Toronto time. That’s up 0.8 per cent from Tuesday.

Macklem’s pledge, referred to as forward guidance by economists, specifically commits the Bank of Canada not to raise its policy rate “until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 per cent inflation target is sustainably achieved.” That likely means the unemployment rate, which is also now at historically high levels of above 12 per cent, would need to fall sharply. Companies, many of which have had to close or shut down partially because of pandemic lockdowns, also would need to be operating at near full capacity. It’s a scenario the central bank isn’t anticipating will happen before at least 2023.

The governor didn’t give a specific time period when that would happen, only to say that there needs to be evidence slack has been absorbed, adding that would be a “long ways off.” In its forecasts, the central bank projects inflation to average 0.6 per cent in 2020, 1.2 per cent in 2021 and 1.7 per cent in 2022. The Bank of Canada is mandated to target inflation at around 2 per cent.

While Canadians don’t have access to the central bank’s 0.25 per cent policy rate, the benchmark does dictate what households and businesses pay on loans. Interest rates that commercial banks give to their prime customers are typically just over 2 percentage points above the policy rate.

The crisis has already taken the bank into uncharted waters. It was forced to cut the benchmark rate to near zero, injected hundreds of billions in cash into financial markets and made the first-ever foray into large-scale asset purchases of government bonds.

In its policy statement, the bank reiterated its commitment to continue buying at least $5 billion (US$3.7 billion) a week in Canadian government bonds until the recovery is “well underway” — in order to reinforce its rate-freeze promise. Macklem said he expects the recovery will have reached that state before the economy fully returns to full capacity, suggesting the central bank expects to begin paring back asset purchases before it raises interest rates.

For the Bank of Canada, it’s part of a transition away from emergency measures first deployed to ease stresses in financial markets, toward policy tools that ensure the economy is flush with cheap money even as market functioning returns to normal. Canada joins the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in providing explicit forward guidance. While the Federal Reserve hasn’t adopted the practice yet, a number of officials have expressed support for moving toward explicit guidance in the U.S.

While its foray into quantitative easing is new, it’s not the first time the Bank of Canada has offered up forward guidance to keep rates low — doing so during the 2009 recession.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“In his first meeting at the helm of the Bank of Canada, Governor Tiff Macklem employed a new form of the conditional commitment that featured so prominently in BoC communications in 2009 and 2010.”

–Andrew Husby, Bloomberg Economics

Macklem, who took over from Stephen Poloz as governor last month, sought to emphasize how the recovery will be slow and gradual.

Canada’s economy will need two years to fully bounce back, the bank said. It acknowledged the initial rebound from COVID-19 lockdowns has been strong, but it also painted a picture of a slow return to pre-pandemic levels of activity, persistent excess capacity, muted price pressures and plenty of uncertainty. Consumers are expected to remain cautious and business investment weak.

“The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures,” policy makers said in the statement.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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