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Bank of Canada seen cutting bond purchases further as lockdowns ease

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Canada’s trailblazing central bank is likely to cut its bond-buying program again this year, possibly as soon as July, as provinces ease curbs to contain the coronavirus pandemic and inflation pressures build, analysts said.

Strategists from half of Canada’s six largest banks expect the Bank of Canada to dial back its bond purchases to C$2 billion ($1.65 billion) per week or less – from the current level of C$3 billion per week – at the central bank’s July policy announcement, while the remainder see a reduction in October.

By April next year or earlier, purchases are likely to be C$1 billion per week or less, and continue for some time to offset the amount of bonds maturing on the central bank’s balance sheet, the analysts said this week.

In April, the BoC became the first major central bank to cut back on pandemic-era money-printing stimulus programs and signaled it could begin raising its key interest rate from the current floor of 0.25% in the second half of next year.

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It said further cuts to bond purchases would be guided by its assessment of the “strength and durability” of economic recovery.

“When we get to July we will be presumably through these third-wave lockdowns and the economy looks to be further along its path towards full recovery,” said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities. That would imply “just a little bit less support from the BoC is needed,” he added.

In recent days, Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario, Canada’s three most populous provinces, have announced plans to ease restrictions.

Despite lockdowns, Canadian inflation rose in April at the fastest annual pace in a decade, moving above the top of the BoC’s target range of 1% to 3%. While that could be put down to a comparison with weak prices one year ago, not so for a monthly rise that was hotter than expected.

The central bank is due to have in hand the May inflation report as well as quarterly business and household surveys before its July meeting.

The surveys are likely “to further reinforce upside pressure on consumers’ and businesses’ inflation expectations,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has not signaled it is ready to dial back quantitative easing but that may not deter the BoC.

Canada’s economy is “importing some easing from the Fed,” Kelvin said. “The more QE that the Federal Reserve does, the less QE the BoC needs to do.”

($1 = 1.2108 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Richard Chang)

Economy

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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