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Bank of Canada signals worries about inflation, but keeps rate on hold – Financial Post

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If not for worries about inflation, Canada’s outlook would be almost entirely positive, though the floods in British Columbia and the new COVID-19 variant certainly raise questions about the immediate future, and “could weigh on growth by compounding supply chain disruptions and reducing demand for some services,” the Bank of Canada said.

Still, the economic impact could be fleeting. The destruction caused by the floods will reduce gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, but rebuilding efforts will provide a temporary GDP jolt in the first half of next year. Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE on Dec. 8 said trials suggest a third dose of their vaccine will neutralize Omicron, giving a lift to global financial markets, since the news provided a reminder that science and economies have become progressively better at adapting to new waves of COVID-19 infections.

Regardless, Canada’s economy will be confronting those headwinds at full throttle. Exports surged 6.4 per cent in October from September, to a record $56.1 billion, according to Statistics Canada on Dec. 7. The trade data followed more evidence that the country’s labour market is well on its way to the “complete” recovery Macklem has said he wants to orchestrate.

Statistics Canada on Dec. 3 said employers added 154,000 positions last month, pushing employment to where it would have been if the trend in February 2020 hadn’t been interrupted by the COVID-19 crisis. The jobless rate plunged to six per cent, a level some economists associate with full employment, a theoretical condition where everyone who wants a job has one, and additional hiring would put upward pressure on inflation.

“Recent economic indicators suggest the economy had considerable momentum into the fourth quarter,” the central bank said. “This includes broad-based job gains in recent months that have brought the employment rate essentially back to its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies remain elevated and wage growth has also picked up.”

Mounting evidence that the recovery from the pandemic recession is secure will allow policy-makers to shift their attention to prices. A year ago, the worry was deflation, which is why the central bank dropped its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 per cent and began creating billions of dollars per week to purchase government bonds, an aggressive form of monetary policy called quantitative easing (QE). The strategy successfully staved off disinflationary forces, but timing the return to normalcy was always going to be difficult.

The Bank of Canada began by slowly tapering its bond purchases before abruptly ending the program in October as year-over-year changes in the CPI approached five per cent, well in excess of the central bank’s target of about two per cent.

Macklem, who took over from Stephen Poloz in June 2020, wasn’t around for the most intense phase of the pandemic. His contribution was to make an explicit promise to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero until at least the second half of 2022, unusual clarity for a central bank meant to give businesses and households confidence they could borrow at low rates for an extended period.

But as growth picked up, it became clear the economy wouldn’t require interest rates at an emergency setting for such a lengthy period of time. At the same time the Bank of Canada ended QE in October, it also advanced the timeline for raising interest rates by three months, rewriting the official guidance to state that increases would likely start at some point during the middle two quarters of 2022.

Macklem and his deputies repeated that commitment on Dec. 8 almost word for word. The value of the Canadian dollar fell, suggesting investors were disappointed the Bank of Canada didn’t open the door to raising rates sooner than the second quarter. “We will provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target,” the central bank reiterated in its new statement.

Saying more would have been difficult without a new economic forecast. The Bank of Canada has made a point of tying its guidance to its quarterly outlooks; specifically, its estimate of when GDP will reach the level policy-makers associate with “full capacity,” which is essentially the maximum output policy-makers think the economy can generate without stoking inflation.

The most recent revisions prompted the October pivot, and the central bank won’t update its forecasts again until late January. The next three interest-rate announcements are scheduled for Jan. 24, March 2 and April 13. Most Bay Street economists assume the first interest-rate increase will come in April, but that will depend on the forecast the central bank generates when it runs the numbers a month from now.

“We think there’s risk that the economy reaches full capacity even sooner given rapid improvement in the labour market,” said Josh Nye, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada. “The BoC was held back by Omicron uncertainty, but today’s statement suggests that as long as that risk doesn’t intensify in the next seven weeks, the BoC will sound more hawkish in January.”

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: carmichaelkevin

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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