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Bank of Canada surveys show how Canadians are gearing up for a possible recession

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Businesses and consumers alike are trimming their spending plans as higher interest rates bite and a possible recession looms, according to new surveys from the Bank of Canada.

The central bank’s fourth-quarter surveys of business and consumer sentiments, published Monday, showed an overall dour outlook for 2023, with the majority of both polled cohorts indicating they expect a recession in the next 12 months.

Businesses are expecting sales to slow down for the fourth consecutive quarter, citing concerns about the impact of high interest rates on both their operations and consumers’ spending plans.

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Still-high inflation, especially when it comes to food, is forcing Canadians to rein in household spending, the surveys showed.

High interest rates are especially hurting consumers with variable-rate mortgages or other kinds of debt, according to the Bank of Canada. Respondents to the survey indicated high rates were forcing them to put off larger purchases or cut down on recreational spending.

 

What do the surveys say about inflation expectations?

Inflation expectations from both consumers and businesses are still relatively high for the next year, with labour market pressures, the war in Ukraine and elevated energy prices fuelling that belief.

However, a majority of both consumers and businesses expect inflation to return to the Bank of Canada’s target of one-to-three per cent within five years, the surveys showed.

The central bank has said in its own forecasts it expects inflation to return to target by the end of 2024.

Businesses are reporting that two major source of inflations, global supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages have shown signs of improvement in the past three months.

“Although still above pre-pandemic levels, the number of businesses reporting labour and supply chain bottlenecks as obstacles to meeting an unanticipated increase in demand has declined,” the bank wrote in its report. “This suggests that the gap between demand and supply is narrowing.”

Businesses expect slower price growth as global commodity prices and consumer demand drop.

The bank’s surveys suggest businesses expect they’ll be able to return to “pre-pandemic practices” for pricing.

“This includes reducing the size and frequency of price increases compared with the past 12 months,” the bank said in its report.

Businesses have faced pressure to raise wages in Canada’s tight labour market over recent months, but the bank’s surveys show that may be easing.

While wage growth expectations remain above pre-pandemic levels, fewer businesses than last quarter said they are raising wages faster to retain workers, according to the surveys. Hiring intentions have also moderated.

 

What does this mean for interest rates?

The central bank uses quarterly surveys of business and consumer sentiment, alongside other economic data, in deciding where to take its benchmark interest rate, which currently sits at 4.25 per cent after a cumulative increase of 400 basis points in 2022.

While the story for much of last year was not a question of if the central bank would raise rates, but how much, policymakers left the door open to a pause starting in 2023. Future interest rate decisions will be “data dependent,” the bank said in December.

Inflation expectations are as much a data input for the central bank as inflation itself, experts say.

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, told Global News in a recent interview that when the central bank sees easing growth expectations for both inflation and wages, that’s a sign it can consider pausing interest rate hikes.

“When all of those things start to come together, that’s when we’ll start to get a prolonged pause by the bank,” he said.

CIBC Executive Director of Economics Karyne Charbonneau said in a note to clients Monday morning that the expectations data in the Bank of Canada’s latest surveys should give policymakers some leeway at their next interest rate decision on Jan. 25.

“With no worsening of the situation on the expectations front, that leaves the Bank of Canada with the space to focus on incoming data in determining the path for interest rates,” she wrote.

Like many big bank economists in Canada, Charbonneau expects the central bank will raise rates another quarter of a percentage point next week. She added the caveat that unexpectedly high inflation readings on Tuesday or stronger than expected retail figures released Friday could push the Bank of Canada to take a larger step with its benchmark rate.

 

What does this mean for a recession?

In the same way that expectations for inflation can have a tangible impact on price growth itself, Bartlett added that believing a recession is coming can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Canadians have heard a growing chorus of economists, policymakers and other commentators in the media warn of a recession for months now, and that rhetoric can push consumers and businesses alike to rein in their spending plans, he said.

With businesses reducing their spending, investment and hiring plans in response to economic headwinds, the ingredients for a recession and a pronounced slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) becomes all the more likely, according to Bartlett.

“As more constraint is shown by households and businesses in terms of investment and spending and that sort of thing, ultimately that tends to weigh on economic activity and reduce real GDP growth in a broad-based way,” he said.

Desjardins, like some other economic forecasters, has called for Canada to face a mild recession in 2023.

 

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Canada Child Benefit payment on Friday | CTV News – CTV News Toronto

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More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.

The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.

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The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.

For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.

That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.

The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.

To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.

The next payment date will take place on May 17. 

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Capital gains tax change draws ire from some Canadian entrepreneurs worried it will worsen brain drain – CBC.ca

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A chorus of Canadian entrepreneurs and investors is blasting the federal government’s budget for expanding a tax on the rich. They say it will lead to brain drain and further degrade Canada’s already poor productivity.

In the 2024 budget unveiled Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government would increase the inclusion rate of the capital gains tax from 50 per cent to 67 per cent for businesses and trusts, generating an estimated $19 billion in new revenue.

Capital gains are the profits that individuals or businesses make from selling an asset — like a stock or a second home. Individuals are subject to the new changes on any profits over $250,000.

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The government estimates that the changes would impact 40,000 individuals (or 0.13 per cent of Canadians in any given year) and 307,000 companies in Canada.

However, some members of the business community say that expanding the taxable amount will devastate productivity, investment and entrepreneurship in Canada, and might even compel some of the country’s talent and startups to take their business elsewhere.

WATCH | The federal budget hikes capital gains inclusion rate: 

Federal budget adds billions in spending, hikes capital gains tax

3 days ago

Duration 6:14

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled the government’s 2024 federal budget, with spending targeted at young voters and a plan to raise capital gains taxes for some of the wealthiest Canadians.

Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators (CCI), said the capital gains tax has overshadowed parts of the federal budget that the business community would otherwise be excited about.

“There were definitely some other stars in the budget that were interesting,” he said. “However, the … capital gains piece really is the sun, and it’s daylight. So this is really the only thing that innovators can see.”

The CCI has written and is circulating an open letter signed by more than 1,000 people in the Canadian business community to Trudeau’s government asking it to scrap the tax change.

Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke and president Harley Finkelstein also weighed in on the proposed hike on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Former finance minister Bill Morneau said his successor’s budget disincentivizes businesses from investing in the country’s innovation sector: “It’s probably very troubling for many investors.”

Canada’s productivity — a measure that compares economic output to hours worked — has been relatively poor for decades. It underperforms against the OECD average and against several other G7 countries, including the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan, on the measure. 

Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers sounded the alarm on Canada’s lagging productivity in a speech last month, saying the country’s need to increase the rate had reached emergency levels, following one of the weakest years for the economy in recent memory.

The government said it was proposing the tax change to make life more affordable for younger generations and fund efforts to boost housing supply — and that it would support productivity growth.

A challenge for investors, founders and workers

The change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access funding in a high interest rate environment, said Bergen.

He questioned whether investors will want to fund Canadian companies if the government’s taxation policies make it difficult for those firms to grow — and whether founders might just pack up.

The expanded inclusion rate “is just one of the other potential concerns that firms are going to have as they’re looking to grow their companies.”

A man with short brown hair wearing a light blue suit jacket looks directly at the camera, with a white background behind him.
Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators, said the proposed change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access and raise financing in a high interest rate environment. (Submitted by Benjamin Bergen)

He said the rejigged tax is also an affront to high-skilled workers from low-innovation sectors who might have taken the risk of joining a startup for the opportunity, even taking a lower wage on the chance that a firm’s stock options grow in value.

But Lindsay Tedds, an associate economics professor at the University of Calgary, said the tax change is one of the most misunderstood parts of the federal budget — and that its impact on the country’s talent has been overstated.

“This is not a major innovation-biting tax change treatment,” Tedds said. “In fact, when you talk to real grassroots entrepreneurs that are setting up businesses, tax rates do not come into their decision.”

As for productivity, Tedds said Canadians might see improvements in the long run “to the degree that some of our productivity problems are driven by stresses like housing affordability, access to child care, things like that.”

‘One foot on the gas, one foot on the brake’

Some say the government is sending mixed messages to entrepreneurs by touting tailored tax breaks — like the Canada Entrepreneurs’ Incentive, which reduces the capital gains inclusion rate to 33 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million — while introducing measures they say would dampen investment and innovation.

“They seem to have one foot on the gas, one foot on the brake on the very same file,” said Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

WATCH | Could the capital gains tax changes impact small businesses?: 

How could capital gains tax increases impact Canadian small businesses? | Power & Politics

2 days ago

Duration 12:18

Some business groups are worried that new capital gains tax changes could hurt economic growth. But according to Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez, most Canadians won’t be impacted by that change — and it’s a move to create fairness.

A founder may be able to sell their successful company with a lower capital gains treatment than otherwise possible, he said.

“At the same time, though, big chunks of it may be subject to a higher rate of capital gains inclusion.”

Selling a company can fund an individual’s retirement, he said, which is why it’s one of the first things founders consider when they think about capital gains.

LISTEN | What does a hike on the capital gains tax mean?: 

Mainstreet NS7:03Ottawa is proposing a hike to capital gains tax. What does that mean?

Tuesday’s federal budget includes nearly $53 billion in new spending over the next five years with a clear focus on affordability and housing. To help pay for some of that new spending, Ottawa is proposing a hike to the capital gains tax. Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University, joins host Jeff Douglas to explain.

Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, says he was disappointed by the change — and that it sends the wrong message to Canadian industries like his own.

He wants to see the government commit to more tax credit proposals like the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses, which he said would incentivize business owners to stay and help make Canada competitive with the U.S.

“We’ve had a lot of difficulties attracting investment over the years. I don’t think this will make it any better.”

Tech titan says change will only impact richest of the rich

A man sits on an orange couch in an office.
Ali Asaria, the CEO of Transformation Lab and former CEO of Tulip Retail, told CBC News that the proposed change to the capital gains tax is ‘going to really affect the richest of the rich people.’ (Tulip Retail)

Toronto tech entrepreneur Ali Asaria will be one of those subject to the expanded capital gains inclusion rate — but he says it’s only fair.

“It’s going to really affect the richest of the rich people,” Asaria, CEO of open source platform Transformer Lab and founder of well.ca, told CBC News.

“The capital gains exemption is probably the largest tax break that I’ve ever received in my life,” he said. “So I know a lot about what that benefit can look like, but I’ve also always felt like it was probably one of the most unfair parts of the tax code today.”

While Asaria said Canada needs to continue encouraging talent to take risks and build companies in the country, taxation policies aren’t the most major problem.

“I think that the biggest central issue to the reason why people will leave Canada is bigger issues, like housing,” he said.

“How do we make it easier to live in Canada so that we can all invest in ourselves and invest in our companies? That’s a more important question than, ‘How do we help the top 0.13 per cent of Canadians make more money?'”

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Canada Child Benefit payment on Friday | CTV News – CTV News Toronto

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More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.

The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.

300x250x1

The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.

For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.

That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.

The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.

To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.

The next payment date will take place on May 17. 

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