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Bank of Canada to end emergency liquidity programs as economy improves – Global News

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The Bank of Canada says it will wind down several pandemic buying and lending programs aimed at keeping credit flowing, believing its work there is done as market conditions improve.

In a speech, deputy governor Toni Gravelle said Tuesday the bank will suspend or discontinue market liquidity-focused programs beginning early April and then into May.

He said the bank can take these steps now because corporate and provincial borrowers have “unfettered access to fully functional debt markets.”

Gravelle added that credit spreads for most of these borrowers are at or below pre-pandemic levels, making it clear the bank’s involvement is no longer required.

The details of each transaction will be made public at the end of June.

Read more:
Bank of Canada keeps key interest rate steady at 0.25%

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The central bank had said it would adjust its pandemic programs as conditions required and the announcement Tuesday adds another sign that the economy is performing better than anticipated.

One year ago, the central bank became a lender of last resort when it started buying corporate and provincial bonds, and adjusted its lending rules to banks as the economy went into a nosedive.

The idea was to keep the plumbing of the credit system free from blockages so companies could finance operations as investors got cold feet.

At the same time as it started helping banks lend money, and improve market conditions for provinces and companies issuing debt, it also started buying federal government bonds as investors sold those as well.

What started out as a market functioning program turned into a quantitative easing program, Gravelle said, meaning the bank is now using the purchases to help lower borrowing costs for households and businesses.

Read more:
Canada’s housing market showing ‘early signs’ of overheating, Bank of Canada warns

By the end of April, government of Canada bonds are expected to make up more than 70 per cent of the central bank’s balance sheet, valued at roughly $350 billion.

The central bank will eventually wind down the pace of its federal bond purchases to maintain, but no longer increase, the amount of monetary stimulus in the economy, Gravelle said in the speech to CFA Society Toronto.

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It would be some time after that the bank would look at raising its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent, which the Bank of Canada doesn’t foresee happening until 2023.






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Deloitte Canada chief economist Craig Alexander said adjustments to the quantitative-easing program will have to take into account how strong the recovery is, including how much the savings households accumulated through the pandemic gets turned into consumer spending.

“If that large pool of savings that has been accumulated suddenly starts to flood into the economy and consumers go on a buying spree, well, then obviously the Bank of Canada is going to have to accelerate the pace of their adjustment in terms of winding down the bond-buying program and raising rates.”

“It’s going to be very difficult to the Bank of Canada to time this, and a lot will depend on just how robust the recovery is.”

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Gravelle said the central bank will review the actions it took to see what, if any, changes are required to respond to future episodes of market stress.

He added that senior officials are also looking at whether the country’s financial system needs structural reforms to minimize the likelihood that the central bank would have to step in again with what Gravelle called extraordinary actions.

“When central banks provide liquidity, we have to do so in ways that don’t encourage market participants to take undue risks in normal times,” Gravelle said in the text of his speech released by the bank.

“Our actions must be targeted at specific issues and scaled back as those are resolved.”

© 2021 The Canadian Press

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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