The Bank of Canada is raising concern about the impact of higher interest rates on renters.Photo by Cole Burston /The Canadian Press
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The Bank of Canada is raising concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on renters while acknowledging that, even as most households appear to be managing increased debt servicing costs, there are still many mortgage holders who will face large payment increases when they renew over the next two-and-a-half years.
The adjustment to higher interest rates “continues to present risks to financial stability,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday as the bank released its annual report on stresses across the financial system.
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Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers, who has previously raised concerns about renters, said the data compiled suggests there is stress in these households.
“After hitting historical lows during the pandemic the share of households without a mortgage that are behind on credit card and auto loan payments has come back up to — or surpassed — typical levels,” she said. “And over the past year, the share of borrowers without a mortgage who carry a credit card balance of at least 80 per cent of their credit limit has continued to climb.”
Other issues flagged in the report included “stretched” valuations of some financial assets, a sharp rise in the use of leverage by the non-bank financial sector and risks due to the exposure to commercial real estate, where weaker demand has pushed the national office vacancy rate up to around 20 per cent.
Since the Bank of Canada began to increase interest rates in March 2022, payments have increased for about half of all outstanding mortgages. Over the next two-and-a-half years, a big share of remaining mortgages will renew and these borrowers will face even larger payment increases.
“Over the coming years, more borrowers will face pressure as they refinance existing mortgages at higher rates,” the report said. “Higher debt-servicing costs reduce a household’s financial flexibility, making them more financially vulnerable if their income declines or they face an unexpected material expense.”
The report showed that the median increase in monthly mortgage payments will be more than 20 per cent at renewal in 2025 and more than 30 per in 2026, compared with origination. For variable rate mortgages with fixed payments, the median increase will be more than 60 per cent in 2026.
“The financial pressure will increase most for households that took out a mortgage in 2021 and early 2022 when house prices were close to their peak and mortgage rates were very low,” the report said. These buyers generally took on large mortgages relative to their incomes and have seen very little increase — and potentially a decrease — in their home equity.
By the end of 2023, more than a third of new mortgages had a debt-service ratio greater than 25 per cent, double the share in 2019.
Credit arrears climbing
The Financial Stability Report said large banks with healthy capital cushions are handling the stresses in the mortgage market so far, but some smaller lenders have already seen a sharp uptick in credit arrears.
“Increased provisions for loan losses are impacting profitability but also enhancing banks’ resilience,” the report said, adding that funding for banks remains stable, though costs have increased.
The report said small and medium-sized lenders are likely seeing more mortgages in arrears because their borrowers tend to have higher risk profiles. In addition, with typically shorter terms, nearly all these borrowers have renewed. In contrast, about half of the mortgages at large banks have yet to renew.
The Financial Stability Report suggested that with conservative wage increases, most borrowers should be able to manage, and that some are increasing savings and adjusting payments, including making lump-sum contributions. A bigger shock to the financial system, including the banks, would be felt with a hit to wages from rising unemployment.
Appetite for risk rising
With many central banks considering cutting interest rates after sharp increases over the past couple of years brought down inflation, speculation about when rates will be cut, and by how much, is increasing the risks of sudden swings in asset prices, according to the Bank of Canada’s report.
“This has driven a renewed appetite for risk,” the Financial Stability Report said, adding that, in addition to pushing up the prices of a range of financial assets, it has driven down risk premiums and credit spreads in both Canada and the United States. This leaves them vulnerable to sudden repricing if the conditions on which they are predicated do not materialize.
Corporate credit spreads are now at or below levels seen on average since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the report said.
Macklem said stretched asset valuations of some financial assets, such as market prices rising beyond fundamentals, increases the risk of a sharp correction that could generate system-wide stress.
“The recent rise in the use of leverage in the non-bank financial sector could amplify the effects of such a correction,” he said.
The report noted that the use of leverage through borrowing in the repo market has risen considerably in the past 12 months, particularly among pension and hedge funds. For hedge funds, repo leverage has increased by about 75 per cent. This appears to be driven by relative-value trading strategies including an increasingly popular cash-futures basis trade in the Government of Canada bond market.
“I think it’s traders arbitraging anticipated changes in interest rates,” Rogers said in an interview. “As long as there’s a bit of room to speculate on where interest rates are heading, that trade is going to probably stay popular.”
She added that leverage is used to amplify profits, but it can work the other way around to amplify losses and volatility.
Commercial real estate exposure
The Financial Stability report said both bank and non-bank financial entities are involved in the commercial real estate sector in Canada, though there are “substantial data gaps” for non-bank financial intermediaries. For banks, this is mostly in the form of loans, including commercial mortgages and loans to real estate developers.
The commercial real estate sector accounts for about 10 per cent of the loan books of large banks in Canada, and about 20 per cent for small and medium-sized banks. This is much lower than their counterparts in the United States, where exposure of small and medium-sized lenders is around 36 per cent.
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Canada’s largest life insurance companies hold about 12 per cent of their total invested assets in the global commercial real estate sector and 70 per cent of that is held in commercial mortgages. For large pension funds, the percentage of total invested assets is 15 per cent, but about 90 per cent of the exposure reflects ownership stakes. Both hold about three per cent of their invested assets in the office subsector.
The Bank of Canada report said some pension funds and insurers have written down their exposures, but there may be more to come, particularly in the office sector, as private valuation adjustments have lagged declines in public market valuations.
Human Resources Officers must be very busy these days what with the general turnover of employees in our retail and business sectors. It is hard enough to find skilled people let alone potential employees willing to be trained. Then after the training, a few weeks go by then they come to you and ask for a raise. You refuse as there simply is no excess money in the budget and away they fly to wherever they come from, trained but not willing to put in the time to achieve that wanted raise.
I have had potentials come in and we give them a test to see if they do indeed know how to weld, polish or work with wood. 2-10 we hire, and one of those is gone in a week or two. Ask that they want overtime, and their laughter leaving the building is loud and unsettling. Housing starts are doing well but way behind because those trades needed to finish a project simply don’t come to the site, with delay after delay. Some people’s attitudes are just too funny. A recent graduate from a Ivy League university came in for an interview. The position was mid-management potential, but when we told them a three month period was needed and then they would make the big bucks they disappeared as fast as they arrived.
Government agencies are really no help, sending us people unsuited or unwilling to carry out the jobs we offer. Handing money over to staffing firms whose referrals are weak and ineffectual. Perhaps with the Fall and Winter upon us, these folks will have to find work and stop playing on the golf course or cottaging away. Tried to hire new arrivals in Canada but it is truly difficult to find someone who has a real identity card and is approved to live and work here. Who do we hire? Several years ago my father’s firm was rocking and rolling with all sorts of work. It was a summer day when the immigration officers arrived and 30+ employees hit the bricks almost immediately. The investigation that followed had threats of fines thrown at us by the officials. Good thing we kept excellent records, photos and digital copies. We had to prove the illegal documents given to us were as good as the real McCoy.
Restauranteurs, builders, manufacturers, finishers, trades-based firms, and warehousing are all suspect in hiring illegals, yet that becomes secondary as Toronto increases its minimum wage again bringing our payroll up another $120,000. Survival in Canada’s financial and business sectors is questionable for many. Good luck Chuck!. at least your carbon tax refund check should be arriving soon.
NORMAN WELLS, N.W.T. – Imperial Oil says it will temporarily reduce its fuel prices in a Northwest Territories community that has seen costs skyrocket due to low water on the Mackenzie River forcing the cancellation of the summer barge resupply season.
Imperial says in a Facebook post it will cut the air transportation portion that’s included in its wholesale price in Norman Wells for diesel fuel, or heating oil, from $3.38 per litre to $1.69 per litre, starting Tuesday.
The air transportation increase, it further states, will be implemented over a longer period.
It says Imperial is closely monitoring how much fuel needs to be airlifted to the Norman Wells area to prevent runouts until the winter road season begins and supplies can be replenished.
Gasoline and heating fuel prices approached $5 a litre at the start of this month.
Norman Wells’ town council declared a local emergency on humanitarian grounds last week as some of its 700 residents said they were facing monthly fuel bills coming to more than $5,000.
“The wholesale price increase that Imperial has applied is strictly to cover the air transportation costs. There is no Imperial profit margin included on the wholesale price. Imperial does not set prices at the retail level,” Imperial’s statement on Monday said.
The statement further said Imperial is working closely with the Northwest Territories government on ways to help residents in the near term.
“Imperial Oil’s decision to lower the price of home heating fuel offers immediate relief to residents facing financial pressures. This step reflects a swift response by Imperial Oil to discussions with the GNWT and will help ease short-term financial burdens on residents,” Caroline Wawzonek, Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance and Infrastructure, said in a news release Monday.
Wawzonek also noted the Territories government has supported the community with implementation of a fund supporting businesses and communities impacted by barge cancellations. She said there have also been increases to the Senior Home Heating Subsidy in Norman Wells, and continued support for heating costs for eligible Income Assistance recipients.
Additionally, she said the government has donated $150,000 to the Norman Wells food bank.
In its declaration of a state of emergency, the town said the mayor and council recognized the recent hike in fuel prices has strained household budgets, raised transportation costs, and affected local businesses.
It added that for the next three months, water and sewer service fees will be waived for all residents and businesses.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
TORONTO – A new report says many Canadian business leaders are worried about economic uncertainties related to the looming U.S. election.
The survey by KPMG in Canada of 735 small- and medium-sized businesses says 87 per cent fear the Canadian economy could become “collateral damage” from American protectionist policies that lead to less favourable trade deals and increased tariffs
It says that due to those concerns, 85 per cent of business leaders in Canada polled are reviewing their business strategies to prepare for a change in leadership.
The concerns are primarily being felt by larger Canadian companies and sectors that are highly integrated with the U.S. economy, such as manufacturing, automotive, transportation and warehousing, energy and natural resources, as well as technology, media and telecommunications.
Shaira Nanji, a KPMG Law partner in its tax practice, says the prospect of further changes to economic and trade policies in the U.S. means some Canadian firms will need to look for ways to mitigate added costs and take advantage of potential trade relief provisions to remain competitive.
Both presidential candidates have campaigned on protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canadian trade, and whoever takes the White House will be in charge during the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
