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Banks are being rocked again as real estate losses mount – CNN

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CNN
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Nearly a year on from a banking crisis that led to the collapse of three US regional lenders and the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse in Europe, a fresh chill is running through banks as far apart as New York, Tokyo and Zurich.

Common to all of them — mounting losses on lending to the troubled commercial property sector.

On Wednesday, shares in New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) plunged 38% after it reported a loss of $252 million for the last quarter. The regional lender set aside $552 million in the fourth quarter to absorb loan losses, up from $62 million in the previous quarter. The increase was driven partly by expected losses on a loan used to finance an office building, it said.

The lender helped drag the KBW Regional Banking Index down 6% on Wednesday, its biggest daily fall since last May — the same month California-based First Republic became the third US banking casualty last year.

The index slid further Thursday and was down 4.8% by 11.19 a.m. ET as shares in NYCB, as well as other regional banks, suffered sharp losses. NYCB’s stock fell almost 13%, Banc of California 8%, and BankUnited 8%.

A big chunk of NYCB’s losses were tied to office buildings, it said in its earnings statement. CEO Thomas Cangemi referred to “general office weaknesses throughout the country” in a call with investors.

Since the turmoil last spring, investors and regulators have been on high alert for renewed stress among banks, homing in on their exposure to the ailing commercial real estate market.

The value of many buildings has plummeted as millions of workers have stuck with pandemic-era remote working, leaving vast tranches of office space vacant or underused. At the same time, historically high interest rates have made it harder for real estate developers — who often take out huge loans to finance projects — to make good on their repayments.

On Thursday, Japan’s Aozora Bank said bad loans tied to US offices were partly to blame for its projected annual loss of 28 billion yen ($190 million) last year. The lender had previously expected to make a net profit of 24 billion yen ($160 million). The news sent its shares plunging over 21%.

The bank said it would take another year or two for the US office market to “stabilize” as more people returned to work in-person, and as the Federal Reserve moves from hiking interest rates to cutting them.

Losses are mounting in Europe, too. Swiss private bank and wealth manager Julius Baer announced Thursday that its adjusted profit had tanked 55% last year because it lost 586 million Swiss francs ($680 million) on loans made to a single “European conglomerate.” Its CEO Philipp Rickenbacher announced his departure in the wake of the losses.

Julius Baer declined to confirm the identity of the company to CNN.

But, according to a Reuters report, that company is Signa Group, an Austrian property developer that, in 2019, bought part of New York’s iconic Chrysler building. Several Signa subsidiaries filed for insolvency in December, Reuters reported.

Much bigger players are girding themselves for losses linked to commercial real estate.

Germany’s biggest lender Deutsche Bank said Thursday that it had allocated €123 million ($133 million) during the last quarter to absorb potential defaults on its US commercial real estate loans. That’s more than quadruple the amount it set aside during the same three-month period in 2022.

‘Small ripples’

Cangemi, of NYCB, said his company’s poor fourth quarter was partly the result of acquiring $13 billion worth of loans from now-failed Signature Bank, one of the three regional US lenders that collapsed during last year’s banking crisis.

Those lenders failed to anticipate and properly manage the consequences of soaring interest rates, and worried depositors frantically rushed to withdraw their cash. The old-fashioned bank runs sent financial markets into a panic that eventually pushed Credit Suisse — then one of the world’s biggest lenders — over the edge and prompted a hurried takeover by rival UBS.

Philip Lawlor, managing director of markets research at Wilshire Indexes, said the recent turbulence is unlikely to rock big, well-capitalized banks this time around.

“One should not be complacent,” he told CNN, noting that last year’s bank runs all “started with small ripples that just built and built.”

The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 leading US banks, is up 29% since hitting a low last May. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, is up 23% since a low in late March.

Both indexes were trading lower on Thursday.

“This could be sort of a replay of what we saw last year — there could be contagion — but it could be limited to a number of smaller banks and not ripple through to the systemically important ones,” Lawlor said.

CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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