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Banks set to report earnings strained by economic slowdown

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Signs of economic slowdown are growing, and Canadian banks could add more evidence this upcoming week.

The Big Six banks are set to report fourth quarter results that analysts expect to show lower earnings, more money set aside to cover bad loans, and hints of rising mortgage strain.

The results come as economic growth has rolled to a near standstill over the last several months, the engine stalled after the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate to five per cent.

Higher borrowing costs and more cautious banks mean that lending growth has slowed notably.

“The key trend in the banking industry right now is really the decrease in lending across the Canadian market,” said Shilpa Mishra, managing director in BDO’s capital advisory services.

The pace of lending growth in the third quarter was about half what it was a year ago, while it was down slightly from the previous quarter, she noted.

Not only are banks slowing the pace of new lending, but they’re setting aside more money for loans that could go or are already going bad as higher interest rates add strain to borrowers. That will be a big influence on earnings.

“We anticipate mixed results from the Canadian banks amid an increasingly uncertain environment,” said Mishra, “This is going to be primarily due to the provision for credit losses.”

RBC Capital Markets analysts are predicting total provisions for credit losses in the sector to increase 13 per cent from the previous quarter to $3.3 billion because the macroeconomic environment has worsened.

The money they’re setting aside is a big part of the reason Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman expects earnings per share to be down three per cent from the previous quarter, and seven per cent from last year.

“Over the past quarter, we have witnessed a clear deterioration in a host of Canadian macro(economic) indicators, including GDP and employment,” Grauman said in a report.

Unemployment ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 5.7 per cent in October for the fourth monthly increase, while August GDP growth was essentially flat and the flash estimate for September was also unchanged, according to Statistics Canada.

Indications of slowing can be seen in other key areas like real estate, where October home sales were down 5.6 per cent from September sales, which were down 1.9 per cent from August, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

“The economy is slowing now, with growth in gross domestic product near zero over the past several months,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said last week.

He also noted the inflation rate has fallen from 8.1 per cent in June 2022 to 3.1 per cent last month.

“This tightening of monetary policy is working, and interest rates may now be restrictive enough to get us back to price stability.”

Grauman said the bond market is pricing in a cut from the Bank of Canada by the second quarter of next year, and the U.S. Fed a quarter earlier, but he thinks that’s optimistic.

“We remain skeptical that central banks will be in a position to ease in late 2024, let alone early in the year, and continue to view the risk of higher-for-longer rates as the key macro issue facing Canadian bank stocks.”

He expects consumer finances to be increasingly strained in the higher-for-longer scenario, and will be listening for hints from bank executives of how much strain they expect from borrowers.

Waves of mortgage renewals are coming in the next few years that will push monthly payments higher, and are expected to keep pressure on borrowing.

Banks have been readying for the slowdown by cutting back on expenses, including on staff. Scotiabank said in October it was cutting about 2,700 staff, while RBC announced last quarter it had cut around 900 jobs and planned to cut upwards of 1,900 more. Other banks have also taken some charges related to staffing cuts.

Fourth quarter results could reveal further trimming, but Mishra said she expects much of those job-cutting efforts to be done.

“I don’t think there’s going to be more of that,” said Mishra. “But we’re definitely going to see more restructuring in the lending and capital market businesses and focus on profitable and higher-margin businesses.”

Overall, the shifts in the quarter will show banks preparing for rockier times, but not likely dramatic swings, she said.

“There isn’t that tsunami of distress that we were expecting, there is more focus on cash flow, liquidity management, balance sheet management.”

Scotiabank kicks off earnings on Nov. 28, CIBC, TD Bank and RBC report on Nov. 30, and BMO and National Bank report on Dec. 1.

 

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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