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Barrel of Monkeys now worth more than a barrel of Alberta oil

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The cost of buying a barrel of Canadian oil fell to less than a Barrel of Monkeys on Thursday as the oil price again crashed to record levels.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) was selling for $6.45 US a barrel Thursday, down $2.84 US from a day earlier. That’s below last week’s record when it sold for as low as $7.63 US a barrel.

The WCS price averaged $36.82 US a barrel in January, according to the province.

To put that into perspective, a barrel of Alberta oil is now worth $9.08 Cdn, which is less than a Barrel of Monkeys Game, a litre of Petrelli Extra Virgin Olive Oil or a 30-gram tube of Polysporin, each $9.99 at London Drugs.

The impact of plunging prices has forced a number of Canadian oil producers to slash their capital spending plans this year and trim back production.

But some analysts believe oil prices could still get much lower.

“Crude from Canadian oil sands could well approach zero over the coming weeks,” says a research note from JBC Energy.

“Even if cash returns turn negative, it is not a given that production will be shut in, especially in heated reservoirs at Canadian oil sand plays. But this time the situation is simply radically different.”

Others say oilsands bitumen is already worthless. That’s because WCS is a blend of bitumen and an ultra light oil that helps move the oilsands product through a pipeline. Right now, the ultra light oil is worth considerably more than WCS, which implies the value of bitumen is lower.

“Looking at bitumen pricing, it is zero to negative. So, it’s as worse as it gets,” said Martin Pelletier, a portfolio manager with TriVest Wealth Council in Calgary.

“The longer it sustains itself, it will be catastrophic for Alberta, and not just Alberta, but the rest of Canada.”

 

The industry is on ‘pins and needles’ waiting to see what kind of relief package Ottawa will unveil., according to Martin Pelletier with TriVest Wealth Counsel. (CBC)

 

Oil and gas remain one of the country’s top exports, contributing significantly to government revenues. The oilpatch is waiting to see what kind of relief package the federal government will provide.

“It’s all hands on deck for a number of these companies. It’s survival mode,” said Pelletier.

The price of West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, also fell on Thursday, to $22.60 per barrel, down $1.89 US a barrel.

Oil prices are being hit by a vicious double whammy: a crude price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and plunging demand as COVID-19 crushes consumption.

Rystad Energy, a Norway-based energy research firm, says the situation has created such a large global surplus that Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut by some 11 per cent, or 440,000 barrels per day.

The country is days away from running out of available storage capacity, it said.

The impact isn’t just being felt by oil companies but governments as well.

“Lower oil isn’t good for Canada’s trade balance, and the Alberta economy will take yet another hit,” according to a research note from BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes.

“One more reason to wonder why the Bank of Canada has held off on cutting rates further, leaving policy rates as the highest in the developed world.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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