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Biden vs. Trump on the economy: And the winner is

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As odd as the 2024 presidential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is likely to be, one familiar pattern will likely hold: The state of the US economy will be the main issue for voters.

With Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire primary election on Jan. 23, Trump now appears destined to win the GOP nomination, setting up a 2020 redo. Needless to say, there are anomalies this time around. Trump is a defendant in four criminal trials involving 91 felony charges. Biden has to explain away the worst bout of inflation in 40 years. Both candidates are older than most voters prefer.

Yet the fact that both men have served as president gives voters a clear record to judge each candidate by. Yahoo Finance has tracked the economic performance of both Trump and Biden since Trump first took office in 2017. Our methodology has been the same for each president, allowing for the apples-to-apples comparisons you see in the charts below. (Click the arrows to move through the data.)

On seven key metrics, Biden has a 4-3 edge. Biden bests Trump on overall job growth, manufacturing jobs, GDP growth, and exports. Trump wins on stock market performance, real-income growth, and low inflation.

If the economy holds up during the rest of 2024, as most economists expect, Biden will sustain that 4-3 advantage in our tracking. We measure the current president’s economy against prior presidents at the same point in their term. The COVID pandemic dominated Trump’s fourth year in office, wrecking Trump’s stats on employment and GPD growth. So a head-to-head comparison favors Biden for the next 10 months and if stocks do well he could beat Trump there also, for a 5-2 edge in our seven metrics.

But that’s not the whole story. Inflation has been Biden’s biggest economic problem, and even though the rate of price increases is getting back to normal, it’s clear that many voters still feel stung by prices that have risen and stayed there. Until recently, confidence measures were at recessionary levels, despite an extraordinarily strong job market. Consumers are gradually feeling better as gas prices drop and food prices moderate. Yet Biden’s approval rating plunged as inflation was worsening in 2022, and has never recovered.

President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. (Getty)

The COVID pandemic, even though it’s over, is another wild card, because it colors how Americans interpret the Biden and Trump economies. The Trump economy was generally doing well until COVID arrived in 2020, triggering a short but deep recession and vast amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The recession hurt the Trump economy, obviously, but the stimulus generated a strong recovery and a stock market boom just as Trump was leaving office. Should Trump get credit for a huge stock rally driven largely by the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing?

Biden came into office as the stimulus-induced COVID recovery was picking up steam, which is a big reason Biden’s employment and GDP numbers are strong. But all that stimulus, combined with COVID-related distortions such as wrecked supply chains and a surge in demand for goods, pushed inflation to 9% in 2022, the highest level since 1981. Should Biden get credit for all those new jobs? Or should Congress and the Fed? And if you credit Biden with strong job growth, shouldn’t you also blame him for inflation? Or vice versa?

To put it another way, if Biden were president when COVID hit, the recession-stimulus-recovery cycle would probably have been very similar to what Trump oversaw. And if Trump began a second term in 2021, he probably would have faced the same paradox as Biden: record job growth but unnervingly high inflation. Presidential candidates exaggerate their powers and voters sometimes believe them, but presidents alone don’t do a lot to move the economy one way or another.

There’s a distinct difference, of course, between the policies each candidate says he’ll pursue if he wins in November. The incumbent Biden wants to raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy, implement more social benefits, continue the green energy transformation, and aggressively confront aggressor nations such as Russia and China. The challenger Trump would keep taxes where they are or cut them further, slash government, ditch green energy incentives, drill more oil, and broadly withdraw the United States from global conflicts. Maybe that will be enough for voters to go on when they vote 10 months from now.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

 

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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