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Biden-Xi meeting, midterm elections: What to watch in politics this week

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Alongside incoming economic data and earnings, there are a few political developments Wall Street is watching as midterm election vote-counting continues and President Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Here are three things to watch in politics this week:

Biden and Xi Jinping move to ease U.S.-China tensions

President Biden said Monday that he is looking to avoid a Cold War with China after meeting with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia. The meeting marked the first time the two leaders met in person since Biden became president.

“I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War,” Biden said at a press conference in Bali after the meeting. “We’re going to compete vigorously, but we are not looking for conflict. I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly.”

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands before a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit meeting, Nov. 14, 2022, in Bali, Indonesia. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Biden told reporters that the U.S. position of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan has not changed and that he does not expect an imminent invasion of the democratic island by China, the Associated Press reported.

Biden, who has been politically emboldened after his party beat expectations in the midterm elections, also elevated human rights concerns with Xi, particularly surrounding the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang province of China.

Xi, meanwhile, faces global scrutiny for continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a budding geopolitical relationship with Russia and Iran. Both Biden and Xi agreed that Russian President Vladimir Putin should not deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to the White House.

Democrats retain Senate control

Democrats will hold the Senate after Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won re-election in Nevada and Arizona.

It’s unknown what will happen in the Georgia runoff race on Dec. 6 between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. Regardless, Democrats will keep the upper chamber thanks to a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, surrounded by supporters from local unions, speaks during a news conference celebrating her U.S. Senate race win, Nov. 13, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)

It’s likely Republicans will have a narrow majority in the House, though the final races are still being counted. That small majority is much smaller than Republicans had wanted to get in the midterms, and it has weakened House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who predicted a massive GOP win in the House. It’s unclear whether he will secure the 218 votes he’ll need among his caucus to get the speakership.

Independents determine midterm elections

The strategy that propelled Trump to the White House in 2016 did not pan out in 2022.

Trump’s MAGA forces thought that stirring up the base would lead to a red wave. Instead, it turned off independents, who are deeply agitated about the direction of the country and even more perturbed by a return to Trumpism.

According to a survey of midterm voters conducted by the Associated Press, Republicans had a six-point advantage among voters, outnumbering Democrats 49% to 43%. In Pennsylvania alone, Republicans showed up by a more than 5 percentage point margin while the GOP had an 11-point margin in Arizona, the Wall Street Journal noted. But among independents, voters broke to the left.

Employees process vote-by-mail ballots for the midterm election at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)

CNN’s exit polls reported that 49% of voters who identified as Independent broke for Democrats while 47% went for Republicans. That’s a flip from the last four midterm elections, where independents tended to vote for the GOP over Dems.

“A clear victory for team normal,” Liz Cheney said at an antisemitism conference last week.

With a potential Trump presidential announcement looming, the 2022 midterm results suggest that the path to the White House in 2024 will depend on either party’s ability to mobilize the middle — rather than their respective bases.

Kevin Cirilli is a visiting media fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue. Follow him on LinkedIn.

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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