Biden's economic approval rating rises slightly, but is still just 37% despite 'Bidenomics' push | Canada News Media
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Biden’s economic approval rating rises slightly, but is still just 37% despite ‘Bidenomics’ push

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President Joe Biden‘s economic approval numbers have risen modestly in the wake of efforts by the White House to promote what it calls “Bidenomics” and some improvement in inflation, but a substantial majority of respondents to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey still disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy.

The survey also found that Republicans hold double-digit leads on which party Americans believe is best to handle critical economic issues like inflation and jobs and that higher interest rates are beginning to hit Americans in their wallets.

The president’s economic approval rating inched up by 3 percentage points compared with the prior survey in April, with a 4-point drop in disapproval. It now stands at 37% approving and 58% disapproving. The 21 point net-negative rating rose substantially from negative 34 one year ago. It was driven by double-digits gains in approval from Democrats, but also men and retirees.

The survey showed small gains in Americans’ views on the economy, though to levels that remain depressed. The percentage of Americans saying the economy is excellent or good rose 6 points to a still-low 20%. The percentage saying the economy is just fair or poor declined 6 points to a still-high 79%. Just 24% of the public believes the economy will improve in the next year, a relatively low mark for the survey but up 6 points compared with April and the percentage expecting the economy to get worse fell 10 points to 43%.

“I think it’s some combination of the messaging (and) of people possibly legitimately starting to think that the economy is not quite as bad anymore,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, which served as the Democratic pollster for the survey. Campbell cautioned the data only shows Americans believe “things are a little less horrible than they have been” and there isn’t enough data yet to know if the improvement is the beginning of a trend.

There’s little sense in the survey that the White House should celebrate. The president’s overall approval rating remains unchanged from the prior survey at 39% with 55% disapproving and marking only a 5-point improvement over the past year in his net-negative rating.

The survey of 1,000 adults was conducted July 12-16 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

No. 1 issue: Inflation

It took place in the wake of ongoing efforts by the White House to promote the president’s economic record and with the unemployment rate remaining near all-time lows. Inflation, which had risen to nearly 9%, has fallen to around 3% but remains a point above levels before the Covid pandemic. Maybe more significantly, prices have not dropped so Americans continue to pay more for goods and services than they used to.

As a result, inflation was named the No. 1 issue by 30% of respondents. That’s more than double any of the other areas of concern, which include threats to democracy, immigration and border security, health care and crime.

And Americans believe Republicans have better policies than Democrats to handle the key economic issues, often by substantial margins. Republicans lead Democrats by double digits when asked which party would do a better job on the economy, inflation and improving the respondent’s personal financial situation. They lead by single digits when it comes to jobs and keeping energy costs down.

“Those are very broad, very important parts of economic confidence. That the Republicans have double digit leads … helps to understand and underpin the deficiencies that Biden has in those areas and on the economy broadly,” said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which served as the Republican pollster for the survey.

Campbell added, “This is a tough set of results for Democrats at this moment. … It shows the degree to which Biden and the Democrats are really going to have to work very hard to make their case that they are better suited to run the economy going forward for the next four years. That’s a difficult case to make when people’s attitudes, while slightly better than they have been, are still pretty bad when it comes to the economy.”

Higher interest rates impact

Democrats had double-digit leads on which party is better for reducing the cost of health care and lowering housing costs.

In general, Republicans led on economic issues because Republicans gave their own party high marks, while Democrats were less enthusiastic about themselves. For example, 81% of Republicans believe their party will do a better job on inflation. Only 57% of Democrats think that’s true of their own party.

The survey also found Americans are feeling the pain of higher interest rates and it’s changing how they conduct their finances and spending. Majorities of Americans say they are less likely to buy a car or a home or take out a home equity line of credit because of higher rates. Thirty-one percent say they are more likely to pay off their credit cards.

Looking specifically at the impact of higher mortgage rates, 43% say they have either delayed buying a home, rented instead of bought or bought a less expensive home. About 1 in 10 Americans say they have turned down a job because it would require a move. The survey shows the pain of higher rates is felt more among the poor than the upper class, more among younger Americans than older, and more in the South than the Northeast.

But there was one piece of good housing news: 44% of American homeowners believe their home price will increase in the next year, up from 35% in the prior quarter and back to average levels before the pandemic. The numbers back up other data that suggest the housing market may have bottomed.

A bit of optimism has also returned to the stock market with 33% of those surveyed saying now is a good time to invest in the stock market, up from 24% in the April poll. But with 46% saying it’s a bad time to invest, the prevailing negative views on equities remain in stark contrast to the time before the pandemic when Americans, sometimes by more than 20 points, thought the time was ripe for equity investments.

View the full survey results here.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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