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Big Banks Turn Bearish On Oil Next Year – OilPrice.com

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As the year draws to a close, the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are trading at $66.55 and $61.54, respectively.

From $60.65 to $64.50, investment bank and analyst projections for Brent crude prices next year are starting to come in. Most forecasts had the luxury of OPEC’s deeper production cuts under the belt, but by and large, analysts are predicting only lackluster, short-term price gains from the cartel’s actions.

Goldman Sachs – $63/$60. Goldman has updated its 2020 oil price forecast to account for the new OPEC production cuts sealed a couple weeks ago. Its latest projection now sees the Brent benchmark averaging $63 per barrel next year, up from their previous $60 per barrel projection. For the US WTI benchmark, the investment bank sees it averaging $58.50 per barrel. Part of its rationale for the increase was its perceived shift in OPEC strategy—shifting away from trying to correct long-term supply and demand imbalances and toward short-term imbalances. As a result, the Goldman sees the gap between supply and demand next year tightening by 300,000 more barrels per day compared to what they had previously forecast.

JP Morgan – $64.50/$60. While JP Morgan’s Brent forecast for 2020 is higher than Goldman’s, their WTI forecast is the same. JP Morgan is predicting an average barrel price of $64.50 for the Brent benchmark—up from earlier projections of $59.50.  In contrast to Goldman, JP Morgan is estimating that the oil markets will swing into deficit next year, by 200,000 bpd thanks to OPEC’s bigger production cuts. Their previous forecast, issued in September, saw 2020 in an oversupply situation to the tune of 600,000 bpd.

EIA – $61/$55.50. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Brent benchmark will average $61 per barrel next year. Meanwhile, the EIA is expecting WTI to average $55.50. This is lower than 2019 average prices, which for Brent were $64 per barrel. The reason for the lowered forecast is rising global oil inventories, particularly in the first half of 2020. Even though the EIA is seeing increasing oil inventories globally, it is forecasting a 3 percent rise in refinery runs next year as IMO 2020 regulations kick in.

S&P Global Platts – Platts sees Brent topping $65 per barrel in early 2020, after which will fall back to the low $60s by year end. The reason for the early 2020 increase is the new IMO regulations, which will favor sweeter crude varieties such as Brent and WTI. Platts is forecasting that WTI will exceed $60 per barrel early next year, before falling back to the high $50s. Platts mentioned in its 2020 forecast Greta Thunberg and the Climate Extinction rebellion, and stated that “efforts by governments to increase energy prices to support the climate agenda will continue to be met by equal opposition as seen with the gilets jaunes and protests in Chile, Ecuador and Iran,” adding that 2020 will bring us to an “intriguing crossroad for the energy transition.” Still, Platts believes that weather will have a greater impact on prices than US-China trade talks and geopolitical risks. Related: The 10 Most Important Oil Market Trends For 2020

WSJ Poll – $60.65/$55.68. A survey of investment banks conducted by the Wall Street Journal predicted that the Brent benchmark would average $61.23 per barrel in Q1 next year, but for the full year, the banks are anticipating an average of $60.65 per barrel. WTI is expected to average $55.68 per barrel according to the banks polled. Behind the banks’ forecast for slippage mid-year are the thought that the OPEC cuts would not be enough to counteract the oil production injection from Norway, Brazil, Guyana, and the United States.

Morgan Stanley – Presenting a grimmer view of next year’s oil prices, Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude reaching $62.50 in the first quarter of 2020, before falling back to $60 per barrel for the rest of the year. The reason for the more bearish outlook on oil prices is partially due to the single-quarter nature of the deeper OPEC production cuts which will only have a short-term effect, and partially due to the fact that OPEC needed to cut deeper at all in order to lift prices, highlighting the “softness in underlying fundamentals”.  For WTI, Morgan Stanley expects prices to hold at $57.50 per barrel in Q1, and $55 for the rest of 2020.

Reuters Poll – $62.50. A Reuters poll of analysts and economists—taken before the OPEC meeting, in late November—pegged Brent at an average of $62.50 for next year. Reuters noted that this was the lowest prediction for 2020 in about two years. Most respondents did not anticipate deeper OPEC cuts, while agreeing that there was simply too much oil on the market.  There has not been an updated Reuters poll since the OPEC meet, but we would expect those estimates to climb somewhat given OPEC’s surprise cut announcement.

The forecasts for $60.65 to $64.50 for the Brent benchmark compare to today’s Brent prices of $66.69—with all major forecasts calling for a bearish trend for 2020.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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