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Big picture trends in US Politics – GZERO Media

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Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director for the US, breaks down the US political landscape on US Politics In 60 Seconds:

Today, we’re going to start by discussing some of the big picture trends in US politics that are going to affect the election outlook for this year. So, bear with me if this takes a little more than a minute.


When I think of big trends in US politics, I think the number one thing is the growing rural-urban divide between the two parties. If you look back to the 1980 election, the Democrats took about 59% of the vote in the most urban districts, and they took about 56 percent of the vote in the most rural districts in the country. If you fast forward to 2018 and the midterm elections, the Democrats took about 75 percent of the vote in the most urban districts, and they took only 40 percent of the vote in the most rural districts. So, you’re going from a three-point spread in the 80s to a 35-point spread today. And that’s really one the defining characteristics of how the parties have realigned themselves facing the new electoral reality.

What that means is increasing partisanship as you’ve got increasing geographic concentration among the two parties. The Democrats are largely becoming a younger, more diverse, in some cases better educated party. The Republican Party is becoming increasingly white, increasingly rural and a little bit older than the Democratic Party. As a result, you’re seeing enhanced partisanship across the US political spectrum. People are clustering in areas where they’re more likely to come across people who share their partisan views. There’s higher correlation between the House, the Senate and the White House, meaning it’s more difficult for policymakers to differentiate themselves from their party. And you’ve got a fracturing media ecosystem where it’s easier to hear points of view that reinforce your own. And there’s less agreement not only about what the solutions to public policy problems are, but what the problems themselves are.

So, what does that mean for the 2020 election? Well, you’re very likely to see a very close election that looks very similar, with a map that looks very similar to the map in 2016. Meaning you’ve got a number of states that are solidly blue, a number of states that are really solidly red and a small number of states in the middle that will be decided based on these questions of the rural-urban divide.

In particular, three questions that we’ll be watching closely are: Do African American voters in cities show up to vote for Joe Biden? Can Trump hold on to his predominately white rural base? In many cases, they flipped over from Obama to Trump in 2016. Can he hold on to them? And three, what happens in the suburbs? Where a lot of educated, college educated Republicans moved away from the Republican Party, giving the House to the Democrats in 2018 midterms? And if that trend continues, it’s very good for Joe Biden and could be trouble for President Trump.

So, it should be really interesting election year and I’m looking forward to watching with you.

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NDP and B.C. Conservatives locked in tight battle after rain-drenched election day

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VANCOUVER – Predictions of a close election were holding true in British Columbia on Saturday, with early returns showing the New Democrats and the B.C. Conservatives locked in a tight battle.

Both NDP Leader David Eby and Conservative Leader John Rustad retained their seats, while Green Leader Sonia Furstenau lost to the NDP’s Grace Lore after switching ridings to Victoria-Beacon Hill.

However, the Greens retained their place in the legislature after Rob Botterell won in Saanich North and the Islands, previously occupied by party colleague Adam Olsen, who did not seek re-election.

It was a rain-drenched election day in much of the province.

Voters braved high winds and torrential downpours brought by an atmospheric river weather system that forced closures of several polling stations due to power outages.

Residents faced a choice for the next government that would have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, between the incumbent New Democrats led by Eby and Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote last election

Among the winners were the NDP’s Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon in Delta North and Attorney General Niki Sharma in Vancouver-Hastings, as well as the Conservatives Bruce Banman in Abbotsford South and Brent Chapman in Surrey South.

Chapman had been heavily criticized during the campaign for an old social media post that called Palestinian children “inbred” and “time bombs.”

Results came in quickly, as promised by Elections BC, with electronic vote tabulation being used provincewide for the first time.

The election authority expected the count would be “substantially complete” by 9 p.m., one hour after the close of polls.

Six new seats have been added since the last provincial election, and to win a majority, a party must secure 47 seats in the 93-seat legislature.

There had already been a big turnout before election day on Saturday, with more than a million advance votes cast, representing more than 28 per cent of valid voters and smashing the previous record for early polling.

The wild weather on election day was appropriate for such a tumultuous campaign.

Once considered a fringe player in provincial politics, the B.C. Conservatives stand on the brink of forming government or becoming the official Opposition.

Rustad’s unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives as leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years.

Rustad shared a photo on social media Saturday showing himself smiling and walking with his wife at a voting station, with a message saying, “This is the first time Kim and I have voted for the Conservative Party of BC!”

Eby, who voted earlier in the week, posted a message on social media Saturday telling voters to “grab an umbrella and stay safe.”

Two voting sites in Cariboo-Chilcotin in the B.C. Interior and one in Maple Ridge in the Lower Mainland were closed due to power cuts, Elections BC said, while several sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily shut but reopened by mid-afternoon.

Some former BC United MLAs running as Independents were defeated, with Karin Kirkpatrick, Dan Davies, Coralee Oakes and Tom Shypitka all losing to Conservatives.

Kirkpatrick had said in a statement before the results came in that her campaign had been in touch with Elections BC about the risk of weather-related disruptions, and was told that voting tabulation machines have battery power for four hours in the event of an outage.

— With files from Brenna Owen

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Breakingnews: B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad elected in his riding

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VANDERHOOF, B.C. – British Columbia Conservative Leader John Rustad has been re-elected in his riding of Nechako Lakes.

Rustad was kicked out of the Opposition BC United Party for his support on social media of an outspoken climate change critic in 2022, and last year was acclaimed as the B.C. Conservative leader.

Buoyed by the BC United party suspending its campaign, and the popularity of Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, Rustad led his party into contention in the provincial election.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Early tally neck and neck in rain-drenched British Columbia election

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VANCOUVER – Predictions of a close election were holding true in British Columbia on Saturday, with early returns showing the New Democrats and the B.C. Conservatives neck and neck.

Conservative Leader John Rustad was elected in Nechako Lakes, and 20 minutes after polls closed, his party was elected or leading in 46 ridings, with the NDP elected or leading in 45.

Among the early winners were the NDP’s Ravi Kahlon in Delta North and Niki Sharma in Vancouver-Hastings, as well as the Conservatives’ Bruce Banman in Abbotsford South.

It was a rain-drenched election day in much of the province.

Voters braved high winds and torrential downpours brought by an atmospheric river weather system that forced closures of several polling stations due to power outages.

Residents faced a choice for the next government that would have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, between the incumbent New Democrats led by David Eby and Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote last election

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau has acknowledged her party won’t win, but she’s hoping to retain a presence in the legislature, where the party currently has two members.

Elections BC has said results are expected quickly, with electronic vote tabulation being used provincewide for the first time.

The election authority expected most votes to be counted by about 8:30 p.m., and that the count would be “substantially complete” within another half-hour.

Six new seats have been added since the last provincial election, and to win a majority, a party must secure 47 seats in the 93-seat legislature.

There had already been a big turnout before election day on Saturday, with more than a million advance votes cast, representing more than 28 per cent of valid voters and smashing the previous record for early polling.

The wild weather on election day was appropriate for such a tumultuous campaign.

Once considered a fringe player in provincial politics, the B.C. Conservatives stand on the brink of forming government or becoming the official Opposition.

Rustad’s unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives as leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years.

Rustad shared a photo on social media Saturday showing himself smiling and walking with his wife at a voting station, with a message saying, “This is the first time Kim and I have voted for the Conservative Party of BC!”

Eby, who voted earlier in the week, posted a message on social media Saturday telling voters to “grab an umbrella and stay safe.”

Two voting sites in Cariboo-Chilcotin in the B.C. Interior and one in Maple Ridge in the Lower Mainland were closed due to power cuts, Elections BC said, while several sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily shut but reopened by mid-afternoon.

Karin Kirkpatrick, who is running for re-election as an Independent in West Vancouver-Capilano, said in a statement that her campaign had been in touch with Elections BC about the risk of weather-related disruptions, and was told that voting tabulation machines have battery power for four hours in the event of an outage.

West Vancouver was one of the hardest hit areas for flooding, and Kirkpatrick later said on social media that her campaign had been told that voters who couldn’t get to a location to cast their ballot because of the extreme weather could vote through Elections BC by phone.

— With files from Brenna Owen

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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