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Big tech props up U.S. stocks amid mixed economic data

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A rally in tech megacaps drove the stock market higher, with traders assessing economic data that suggest the Federal Reserve still has a path to a soft landing —  with officials set to further downshift their rate hikes next week.

The S&P 500 headed toward its highest since early December. Tesla Inc. led gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, with Elon Musk teasing potential for the carmaker to produce 2 million vehicles this year. International Business Machines Corp. weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as its cash flow miss overshadowed a profit beat.

The U.S. economy grew faster than forecast into the end of 2022, but there were signs of slowing underlying demand as the steepest rate hikes in decades threaten growth this year. Sales of new homes rose for a third month in December, wrapping up an otherwise disappointing year in which soaring borrowing costs stifled demand and weighed on the economy.

Comments:

  • Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com:
    • “The weaker GDP print compared to the previous reading means the economy is slowing, but the above-forecast number will ease recession fears at the same time. They call this the ‘goldilocks’ scenario. It should be positive for risk assets, I would imagine, and judging by the reaction post the data, that’s how it is proving to be so far.”
  • Ian Lyngen, the head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets:
    • “Overall, it was a solid round of data that is consistent with the Fed continuing on with the steady quarter-point hikes at the next 2-3 meetings and then retaining a restrictive policy stance throughout the year.”
  • Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial:
    • “The Q4 GDP report will likely reignite conversations about the economy sticking a soft landing. Given the softer inflation data, the Fed will likely downshift the pace of rate hikes to 0.25 per cent at next week’s meeting. However, other recession indicators are flashing red so upcoming monthly data, especially on the labor market, will be key for investors.”
  • Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank:
    • “A slowing trend in real GDP — and more importantly, slowing inflation — is enough for the Fed to reduce the size of their rate hike at next Wednesday’s decision. The Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, which we forecast will conclude with a final quarter percentage point increase at the March decision.”

A team led by Deutsche Bank AG’s Binky Chadha is maintaining its view that the S&P 500 can rise to 4,500 by the end of the first quarter, 12 per cent above Wednesday’s close, before slumping amid an economic contraction. That’s even as the benchmark is headed for its best January since 2019.

“We view the rally as having further to go,” the strategists wrote. “While a number of leading indicators have fallen steeply, raising the alarm, there are several reasons for a continued pushing out of the timing of a potential recession.”

However, it appears many investors don’t have the appetite to chase the rally. Some 35 per cent of clients in a recent JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey said they plan to add to stock holdings in the coming weeks. That’s a hair away from a 33 per cent reading in late November that marked an all-time low.

Corporate Highlights:

  • American Airlines Group Inc. expects profit this year to exceed estimates following a slow start, as steady demand for air travel keeps an industry recovery going into 2023.
  • Southwest Airlines Co.’s operations meltdown last month will lead to a first-quarter loss as the fallout extends into 2023 from a fiasco that led to thousands of canceled flights and prompted a federal probe into its operations.
  • Lam Research Corp., one of the three biggest providers of chip-manufacturing equipment in the U.S., is cutting about 7 per cent of its workforce to reduce expenses in a declining market.
  • Dow Inc. plans to cut about 2,000 jobs as the chemical maker seeks US$1 billion in savings and confronts a flareup in energy costs that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Mastercard Inc. warned revenue growth would slow even faster than expected this quarter, stoking fears that inflation has put a damper on consumer spending.
  • Comcast Corp. topped Wall Street profit estimates in the fourth quarter despite continuing to lose customers in its cable and broadband businesses.

Key events:

  • Earnings for the week include: American Express, Charter Communications, Chevron, HCA Healthcare (Friday)
  • U.S. personal income/spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, pending home sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.6 per cent as of 10:26 a.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4 per cent
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5 per cent
  • The MSCI World index rose 0.6 per cent

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 per cent
  • The euro fell 0.3 per cent to US$1.0888
  • The British pound fell 0.2 per cent to US$1.2372
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.5 per cent to 130.29 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 2 per cent to US$23,127.32
  • Ether fell 0.4 per cent to US$1,612.75

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.49 per cent
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.19 per cent
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 3.29 per cent

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3 per cent to US$81.19 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 0.5 per cent to US$1,950.10 an ounce

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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