Bitcoin Might Be a Good Investment But Bitcoin Mining Stocks Aren't - Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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Bitcoin Might Be a Good Investment But Bitcoin Mining Stocks Aren't – Bloomberg

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If you believe in Bitcoin, you buy Bitcoin. And if you’re wary, you stay away. That’s about the simplest way of calculating your investment options when it comes to the world’s most infamous speculative bet. 

Of course, you can join the hoards of Telegram and Reddit groups claiming to understand and predict the twists and turns in the cryptocurrency’s price, making you just that much smarter than everyone else. Well done.

But there is another option: invest in stocks of Bitcoin-related companies, including those that supply the “miners” —  the computers that solve the complex algorithms which underpin the cryptocurrency network. That is, buy shovels in a gold rush. 

That could be the dumbest bet of all, though. 

Take Canaan Inc. the largest member of the Elwood Blockchain Global Equity Index. The Hangzhou-based company makes chips and equipment used in miners. You’d think that since Bitcoin price, and ergo demand, keeps rising then people would be clamoring to buy more rigs. The major incentive to do so is that if you run such a machine you can yourself get Bitcoin as a reward, and as the price rises the value of such a prize also climbs.

It’s not working out that way. Canaan’s sales in the June and September quarters dropped and it posted four straight quarters of losses. That’s over a period in which Bitcoin’s price rose a sedate 30%. According to Bloomberg data, there’s no sell-side analysts left to even guess at its revenue outlook or share price target.

Such equity investments are not about the bottom line, though, they’re about share returns. In that regard, Canaan has done well by rising 200% over the past year. Tesla Inc.’s announcement earlier this month that it had got into Bitcoin, followed by Canaan telling investors it had secured long-term orders, accounted for almost all of that gain.

Place Your Bets

You could invest in Bitcoin-related stocks. Or you could just by the cryptocurrency itself

Source: Bloomberg

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This huge return over the past year is minuscule compared to the rise in Bitcoin itself — which is five times higher than a year ago. In fact, on aggregate, betting on related equites — as tracked by the Elwood Blockchain index — would make you a laggard.

There are a few exceptions. MicroStrategy Inc. is a provider of business-analytics software. But now it’s gone all-in on Bitcoin and this past week raised around $1 billion through a convertible-bond sale for the sole purpose of buying more. That big bet drove the stock to outperform even the cryptocurrency itself in the past few weeks.

Unfortunately, as my Bloomberg News colleagues Crystal Kim and Tom Contiliano pointed out, its shares trade at about a 50% premium to the price of Bitcoin — and that was after a 25% plunge in the stock from its Feb. 9 high. It would be akin to buying Bitcoin at $75,019 apiece when it was trading at $49,000, they wrote. Clearly, that’s not the smartest of investments.

And that’s the problem. Without a doubt there’ll be times when individual stocks, or even a collection of them, will be a solid investment strategy. But over the long term, if you truly think Bitcoin is a winner, then there’s really just one clear way to bet on it.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Tim Culpan at tculpan1@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net

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    Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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    NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

    Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

    “Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

    Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

    Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

    Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

    In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

    The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

    And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

    Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

    The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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    TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

    The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

    In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

    The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

    The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

    The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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    TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

    The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

    In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

    The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

    The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

    The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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