Bitcoin Under $40,000 Might Be the Best No-Brainer Investment You Make All Year | Canada News Media
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Bitcoin Under $40,000 Might Be the Best No-Brainer Investment You Make All Year

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For months, Wall Street investors had been predicting that the price of Bitcoin (BTC 0.79%) would soar as soon as the SEC finally approved the new spot-price Bitcoin ETFs. But this didn’t happen. In fact, quite the opposite. The price of Bitcoin is now down to $40,000, and concerns are growing that it could dip even lower.

This is all probably a bit jarring, especially for the first-time crypto investor who expected to become a Bitcoin millionaire overnight. But it’s actually part of a pattern we’ve seen over and over again with Bitcoin, and there’s no need to panic now. Let’s take a closer look.

Bitcoin and tactical asset allocation

There’s been intense media coverage of the new spot-price Bitcoin ETFs, as well as an exhaustive list of possible reasons the price of Bitcoin has dipped in the aftermath of SEC approval. One possible explanation is related to the concept of tactical asset allocation, which simply refers to the process of reallocating funds among different asset classes to take advantage of short-term market situations.

Image source: Getty Images.

In layman’s terms, this simply means that money is being shuffled around among different Bitcoin investment products as people search for the best way to get exposure to Bitcoin. The process of doing this, unfortunately, is causing downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.

Keep in mind that people have different options when they want to buy Bitcoin now. They can invest in Bitcoin proxy stocks (such as Bitcoin mining companies). They can invest in Bitcoin futures contracts. They can buy futures-based Bitcoin ETFs. They can buy Bitcoin directly in the spot market via a cryptocurrency exchange. And they can invest in the new spot-price Bitcoin ETFs.

For the Bitcoin tactical asset allocation thesis to make sense, you would expect to see certain things. You would expect to see people selling off Bitcoin proxy stocks as they look for more direct exposure via the spot-price Bitcoin ETFs. This has happened. You would expect to see people moving out of the higher-cost futures Bitcoin ETFs into the lower-cost spot-price Bitcoin ETFs. This has happened. And you would expect Bitcoin trading volume on crypto exchanges to fall as people instead buy ETFs. This, too, appears to be happening.

From my perspective, this explanation makes a lot of sense if you assume most investors are rational as they search for the best way to invest in a certain asset. Moreover, I find this explanation strangely comforting, because it means that nothing has changed in the grand macro thesis of Bitcoin adoption. It means that there has been no major change in the long-term growth prospects of Bitcoin. The only downside, really, is that less “new” money might be flowing into Bitcoin than we expected. Instead, it’s just “recycled” money from other Bitcoin products.

Historical evidence from Bitcoin

Still not convinced? Well, let’s consider the historical evidence from Bitcoin and similar types of product launches.

One of the best graphics that I’ve seen over the past two weeks appeared on CNBC. As Markus Thielen of 10x Research pointed out, the same pattern has occurred with every major launch of Bitcoin-related financial products. A lot of early hype leads to a surge in the price of Bitcoin, followed by a swift downward correction on the actual news.

This happened with the first Bitcoin futures contracts, which launched in December 2017. It happened with the April 2021 initial public offering (IPO) of crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN 3.46%), which brought Bitcoin trading to the average investor. It happened with the launch of the Bitcoin futures ETFs in October 2021. And it is now happening with the launch of the new spot-price Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. If you take a trading chart of Bitcoin and highlight these dates, the trend is unmistakable. Peaks follow listings, with dips in their wake. And the long-term price gains continue after a pause.

While you could argue that correlation does not imply causation, there does appear to be a strong pattern here, right? It suggests that as soon as there is a new way of investing in Bitcoin, people start reallocating their Bitcoin funds, and that causes a short-term price downturn.

Buy the dip on Bitcoin

Long story short: You should buy the dip. Bitcoin under $40,000 is a no-brainer investment opportunity in my eyes. By my analysis, there is simply no way that a sustained surge in new retail and institutional money into Bitcoin won’t help to prop up its price. And if many investors decide to allocate just 1% of their portfolio to Bitcoin, that’s going to provide long-term price support — and it’s easier than ever to do it thanks to the new spot-price ETFs.

That’s why I’m still strongly bullish on Bitcoin. The process of democratizing crypto for the average investor continues, and the spot-price Bitcoin ETFs are a welcome new addition. Yes, it’s been messy for the past two weeks, but I’m more convinced than ever that investors need to hold Bitcoin for the long term and learn to embrace its volatility.

 

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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