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BLAKE DOYLE: Anticipation of economic direction – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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Approaching the middle of August, Prince Edward Island’s economy is entering a stage where we can assess the seasonal cycle. We can evaluate the success of our tourism season, and the effectiveness of our reopening. Having spent 25 years as a tourism operator outside Charlottetown, the seasonal peak always occurred prior to Old Home Week when traffic starts to migrate toward the capital centre. So this is a good time to calibrate register receipts.

But reliable data is in short supply. By observation, I would concede that Island business experienced a burst of enthusiasm through each successive stage of economic reopening. The pent-up energy of buying ice cream, browsing retail, dinning out or getting a haircut was intense; but now satisfied.

As increased competition for share of wallet spreads the local purchasing power across many seasonal businesses, the influx of tourists has been appreciated, but muted, as measured in traffic flows.

The long-lasting consequences of the pandemic shutdown is an adjustment to consumerism. Shelter in place, eat at home, shop online and suspend travel. These are economy-breaking behaviours, which will take time to readjust.

Business continuity

After a false-start in March, P.E.I. Premier Dennis King recast his economic guidance taskforce in the middle of May. This is one of the most diverse and impressive group of industry leaders recently assembled, under the banner of the Business Continuity Group (BCG). There is strong thought-leadership embedded, but the group is unwieldy.

A quarter into the BCG mandate and with little communication outside a twitterbot that rebroadcast a few community tweets, the business community is ravenous for the promise offered in the group’s inception.

Reliable, decision-worthy data lags too long in a responsive environment. Even Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, is looking at non-standard, high-frequency data to make assessments — data like credit card purchases. What he has seen in the U.S. is an economic uptick in May and June where consumer spending recovered half off the March lows and employment recovered one-third of their losses. But in July, partially from viral resurgence, credit card purchases have slowed, and small business job growth is stalling.

This data is not perfect, but it is the best available. The diversity of the BCG and the breadth of industries touched can provide real-time, generalized analytics on accommodation bookings, retail sales, tourism investment, manufacturing and business purchases. This information is essential for all Island small businesses when forecasting investment, hiring or compression into the fall. We need to release this data.

Weekly updates

I would appeal to the premier to release preliminary findings, not the euphoric economic restart optimism, but practical trending data and provide this information in real-time on a weekly basis. Business needs current information on which to make informed decisions.

If elements of the economy are performing well — and some sectors absolutely are — this is great news. If sectors are suffering — and unquestionably some are — then use this data for policy directives to induce and support industry.

Our seasonal economy is within a quarter of annual suspension. The economy needs a plan for the “off season” with federal CERB and rental rebates winding down, the economic underpinnings will feel the challenges deferred from spring.

The premier has mused about encouraging Islanders to apply tourism dollars locally. Perhaps economic inducements can be offered to Islanders this fall/winter.                                                      

New initiatives

In 1891, the Merchant Bank of Prince Edward Island issued bank notes. Can the government issue a 10-per-cent Buy-P.E.I. credit for local money spent in our Island bubble? 

This encourages a local spend and multiplication benefit at a time when our domestic Island economy will be entirely self-reliant … but still competing with Amazon, Walmart and Costco.

Keep the spend-and-tax revenue local. Easy decision!

Island business should be extended provincial benefits to maintain post-seasonal employment, or even add new hires. This should be paired with the return to school plan and a goal of recovering our labour participation rate to an aspirational 75 per cent.
Our government could offer business interruption insurance, available to companies that can demonstrate a year-over-year decline of a measurable percentage, lagging by a quarter to support stabilization.

Construction carries our economy; as goes construction, so goes our economy. But population is required to continue this run. According to the province’s population projections in September 2019, our natural population rates turns negative in seven years. Now is the time to work on an Employ P.E.I. strategy to attract professionals who are eager to live in our pristine (COVID free) environment and contribute to our economy. (We see these people regularly through my recruitment firm).

More difficult, the government needs to articulate a strategy to taper investment or redirect its budget to economic stabilization. Spending cannot continue in all directions – but investing in the economy will increase revenues.

The Business Edge is always happy to dispense free advice, the value of which is equivalent to the cost. Perhaps other Islanders can contribute to this conversation on our collective economic future.

Blake Doyle is The Guardian’s small business columnist.   

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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