Blame America: Why Canada's steep inflation isn't entirely our fault - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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Blame America: Why Canada's steep inflation isn't entirely our fault – The Globe and Mail

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Shoppers at the Toronto Eaton Centre on July 18.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

In analyzing the causes of high inflation in Canada, many experts point to interest rates that were too low for too long, along with surging commodity prices.

But Canadians may want to consider another culprit: their neighbours to the south.

In a recent working paper, three researchers at the U.S. Federal Reserve dissect the role of fiscal stimulus in today’s inflation shock. They note that a “generous” response to the pandemic, particularly from the U.S. government, led to an increase in demand for goods that was not matched by supply – and ultimately spilled into other countries.

For Canada, the knock-on effects were sizable. The annual inflation rate in February, 5.7 per cent, was about four percentage points higher than in recent history. Of that “excess inflation,” U.S. fiscal stimulus contributed about 2.3 percentage points, the Fed researchers estimate, pointing out that the impact was much bigger in Canada than elsewhere.

“Canada, a country with strong trade links with the U.S., features a high level of excess inflation related to exposure to foreign fiscal stimulus,” they wrote.

The flare-up in consumer prices is only worsening. Canada’s inflation rate hit 7.7 per cent in May, the highest in almost four decades. Bay Street analysts expect it to be even higher when June figures are published Wednesday. U.S. inflation hit 9.1 per cent in June.

Central bankers are now trying to tame inflation with the quickest pace of monetary policy tightening in decades, notably through a series of interest-rate hikes. The Bank of Canada has raised its key rate to 2.5 per cent from 0.25 per cent in less than five months, and bank officials have signalled that more hikes are coming.

“There is clearly a large component of Canadian inflation that is being driven by the overheated nature of the American economy,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, said in an interview. “The fiscal response was huge, but the delay in reining in monetary stimulus also played a large factor in this as well.”

Like other countries, the U.S. moved quickly to launch pandemic support programs and blunt the financial impact on households. Government spending played a “positive role” during the crisis, the Fed researchers wrote, by supporting a strong economic recovery and likely preventing “worse outcomes.”

Bank of Canada blames oil price shifts for inflation forecasting errors

The U.S. response was especially large. It spent more than US$5-trillion, or roughly 25 per cent of gross domestic product – proportionally more than most countries.

U.S. stimulus was often paid directly to households. Families could receive three rounds of cheques – regardless of whether their employment was affected by the pandemic. An individual with an annual income of less than US$75,000 could receive US$3,200.

Flush with cash, Americans started loading up on goods, in part because they had fewer options for spending that extra money on services. A speculative mania swept through various asset classes, from stocks to sneakers.

At the same time, businesses couldn’t keep up with demand, with factories and ports often shuttered by public-health measures, leading to supply chain issues that drove up prices.

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The Bank of Canada consistently underestimated the inflation threat and said about a fifth of its forecast error was related to global supply chain pressures, including the extent to which people bought goods.

“Instead of weakening as in past downturns, U.S. consumer demand for goods unexpectedly surged well beyond pre-pandemic levels. Supported by fiscal policy measures, U.S. household incomes turned out to be higher than anticipated,” the bank said Wednesday in its monetary policy report.

“Overall, strong foreign demand for tradable goods, such as appliances and furniture, has pushed up prices globally, including for Canadian consumers.”

The Fed researchers outlined three ways fiscal stimulus affects prices. Canadians are paying more for U.S. goods as American companies struggle to keep up with scorching demand. Likewise, Canadians are paying more for products from non-U.S. countries that have seen a boost in American demand. And finally, Americans are ordering more Canadian goods than usual, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance seen at home.

“When we are competing for goods or some services on the global stage, and we’re competing with an extremely strong U.S. economy, we’ll have to pay up to get our fair share of those goods and services,” Mr. Mendes said.

There are, of course, many explanations for the surge in inflation. Rock-bottom mortgage rates fuelled a homebuying boom in Canada, which led to higher housing costs. Commodity prices have also risen sharply, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And supply issues are inextricably tied to public-health measures in other countries, such as recent shutdowns of major cities in China.

Domestic stimulus is another factor, the Fed researchers said. Canada’s fiscal response to the pandemic amounted to roughly 20 per cent of GDP, based on International Monetary Fund estimates from last fall. Government transfers to households spiked in 2020, driving up disposable income and supporting consumption. By June of that year, retail sales in Canada were running above prepandemic levels, despite huge job losses.

Inflation can also be self-fulfilling. For instance, companies may raise prices in anticipation of higher costs.

“I really think that the Bank of Canada is going to have to see a lot of things go right that are outside of its control to return inflation to target without causing a recession,” Mr. Mendes said. Those include an easing of supply chain troubles, lower energy prices and the U.S. economy cooling to a more sustainable position, he said.

“It’s an extremely tough spot for them to be in.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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