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BoC 'late' to cut rates, private sector 'starting to buckle': chief market strategist – BNN Bloomberg

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A chief market strategist says the Bank of Canada is late in bringing interest rates lower and says policy is driving inflation above the two per cent target. 

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate for the fifth consecutive meeting at five per cent. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem also added in a speech that it is “too early to consider lowering the policy rate.” 

Jim Thorne, the chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday that policy is now driving inflationary pressures. Specifically, he mentioned carbon taxes, the impact of Ottawa’s immigration policy on rental prices and mortgage interest costs rising by a record 28.5 per cent in 2023. 

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“All of those are policy-induced inflation. We learn in advance macroeconomics, what you’re supposed to do is take that out and ignore it. And if you do, we’re in deflation in Canada,” Thorne said. 

“So it’s really unfortunate that Tiff Macklem, who knows this, is basically willing to ignore the fact that there is a unique time, a very nuanced time where rate hikes cause inflation and therefore rate cuts cause disinflation. And the Bank of Canada should be cutting rates to bring inflation down.”

Beata Caranci, the chief economist at TD Bank, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Thursday that the Bank of Canada is “still trying to judge the data” and doesn’t yet have a high enough degree of confidence to bring interest rates lower.  

Ahead of interest rate decisions in June and July, she said the central bank will rely on “make or break” jobs and inflation data to determine if it can lower interest rates in the early summer months.  

Thorne pointed to rising mortgage delinquency rates in Ontario that rose by 135.2 per cent compared to the previous year in the fourth quarter of 2023 and business insolvencies in January that rose by 129.3 per cent year-over-year. 

“The private sector is starting to buckle under the force of the Bank of Canada having their foot on the throat of the private sector,” he said.  

‘Long and variable lags’ 

According to Thorne, current levels of economic growth are a “mirage created by fiscal policy.”

“We forget this thing called long and variable lags. If the Bank of Canada cut today, it would take 14 months for us to feel it,” he said. 

If the Bank of Canada moves to lower interest rates in June or July, Thorne said it would take until about 2025 for the Canadian economy to feel the effects of the policy shift.

“They’re late and they should be cutting and they’re not. Which is very concerning,” he said. 

Caranci said that the Bank of Canada has traditionally “been a bit more forward-looking” relying on forecast models to determine the trajectory of inflation over a 12 to 18-month period. 

“But this central bank is showing more hesitation in putting a lot of faith in the forecasts because we’ve had so many misses, not just by them, by us on the street and others, over the last three years, because of all the distortions in the data from supply chains and the pandemic disruptions and so forth,” she said. 

“So they are really data dependent.” 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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