BoC 'late' to cut rates, private sector 'starting to buckle': chief market strategist - BNN Bloomberg | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

BoC 'late' to cut rates, private sector 'starting to buckle': chief market strategist – BNN Bloomberg

Published

 on


A chief market strategist says the Bank of Canada is late in bringing interest rates lower and says policy is driving inflation above the two per cent target. 

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate for the fifth consecutive meeting at five per cent. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem also added in a speech that it is “too early to consider lowering the policy rate.” 

Jim Thorne, the chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday that policy is now driving inflationary pressures. Specifically, he mentioned carbon taxes, the impact of Ottawa’s immigration policy on rental prices and mortgage interest costs rising by a record 28.5 per cent in 2023. 

ECONOMICS LANDING PAGE

“All of those are policy-induced inflation. We learn in advance macroeconomics, what you’re supposed to do is take that out and ignore it. And if you do, we’re in deflation in Canada,” Thorne said. 

“So it’s really unfortunate that Tiff Macklem, who knows this, is basically willing to ignore the fact that there is a unique time, a very nuanced time where rate hikes cause inflation and therefore rate cuts cause disinflation. And the Bank of Canada should be cutting rates to bring inflation down.”

Beata Caranci, the chief economist at TD Bank, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Thursday that the Bank of Canada is “still trying to judge the data” and doesn’t yet have a high enough degree of confidence to bring interest rates lower.  

Ahead of interest rate decisions in June and July, she said the central bank will rely on “make or break” jobs and inflation data to determine if it can lower interest rates in the early summer months.  

Thorne pointed to rising mortgage delinquency rates in Ontario that rose by 135.2 per cent compared to the previous year in the fourth quarter of 2023 and business insolvencies in January that rose by 129.3 per cent year-over-year. 

“The private sector is starting to buckle under the force of the Bank of Canada having their foot on the throat of the private sector,” he said.  

‘Long and variable lags’ 

According to Thorne, current levels of economic growth are a “mirage created by fiscal policy.”

“We forget this thing called long and variable lags. If the Bank of Canada cut today, it would take 14 months for us to feel it,” he said. 

If the Bank of Canada moves to lower interest rates in June or July, Thorne said it would take until about 2025 for the Canadian economy to feel the effects of the policy shift.

“They’re late and they should be cutting and they’re not. Which is very concerning,” he said. 

Caranci said that the Bank of Canada has traditionally “been a bit more forward-looking” relying on forecast models to determine the trajectory of inflation over a 12 to 18-month period. 

“But this central bank is showing more hesitation in putting a lot of faith in the forecasts because we’ve had so many misses, not just by them, by us on the street and others, over the last three years, because of all the distortions in the data from supply chains and the pandemic disruptions and so forth,” she said. 

“So they are really data dependent.” 

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

Published

 on

 

Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

Published

 on

Product Name: All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

Click here to get All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store at discounted price while it’s still available…

All orders are protected by SSL encryption – the highest industry standard for online security from trusted vendors.

All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.

(more…)

Continue Reading

Business

Turn Your Wife Into Your Personal Sex Kitten

Published

 on

Product Name: Turn Your Wife Into Your Personal Sex Kitten

Click here to get Turn Your Wife Into Your Personal Sex Kitten at discounted price while it’s still available…

All orders are protected by SSL encryption – the highest industry standard for online security from trusted vendors.

Turn Your Wife Into Your Personal Sex Kitten is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.

(more…)

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version