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Bonds are sending a stark message about the economy – CNN

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A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

New York (CNN Business)Turmoil in stocks has been grabbing headlines. But warning signs are also flashing in global bond markets, revealing the extent to which investors are on edge about the economy, inflation and what central bankers will do next.

What’s happening: The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries — which moves opposite prices — jumped to 3.36% on Monday, its highest level since 2011.
But the yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed even higher as investors dumped those notes, too. That created an unusual phenomenon known as a “yield curve inversion.”
Breaking it down: Usually, the yield on longer-dated bonds is higher than that on shorter-dated bonds. It’s harder to predict what will happen further into the future, and investors want to be compensated for that extra risk.
However, after the surprise jump in US inflation in May, when prices rose at the fastest rate in 40 years, traders are bracing for dramatic action from the Federal Reserve later this week. That could spell trouble for the economy near-term.
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that he thinks Jerome Powell, the current Fed chief, can still bring down inflation without causing a recession.
“Economists are very bad at predicting recessions, but I think the Fed has a decent chance — a reasonable chance — of achieving what Powell calls a ‘soft-ish landing,’ either no recession or a very mild recession to bring inflation down,” Bernanke said.
Bond traders, for their part, seem more skeptical. A yield curve inversion has preceded every single recession since 1955, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Over in Europe, the bond market is also showing signs of anxiety.
The gap between yields on 10-year German and Italian government bonds was at its widest since March 2020 on Monday, according to Tradeweb. It was the same for 10-year German and Greek bonds before a market holiday in Greece on Monday.
That indicates concern that the European Central Bank — which announced last week that it will raise interest rates in July for the first time in 11 years — could strain EU countries with high debt loads as it hikes borrowing costs. The more they have to pay servicing debt, the less for other purposes.
“It’s definitely a worry,” Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, told me.
At the end of 2021, Greece had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in Europe at 193%. Italy was next at 151%.
Europe is in better shape than it was the last time the ECB started raising rates in the run-up to the region’s debt crisis.
Greece’s economy, in particular, has been beating expectations for growth, and it has favorable conditions on its debt that make repayment less of a concern. But that’s not the case in Italy, which will need to refinance its liabilities sooner, and where growth has been dragging.
“Italy has not done enough serious reforms,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.
The ECB has said it would step in and resume bond-buying if the situation deteriorates rapidly. Yet exactly when it would intervene isn’t clear, making investors increasingly nervous.
“The ECB can contain the problem if they want to,” Kenningham said. But they haven’t laid out their “pain threshold,” he added.

US stocks finish in a bear market

US stocks finished Monday’s trading session in a bear market, with the S&P 500 (SPX) closing more than 20% below the all-time high it notched in early January.
The latest: Inflation and recession fears had eased somewhat at the end of May, and stocks regained some ground. But Friday’s miserable report on consumer prices caused the mood to deteriorate again as investors fretted about the Fed’s next moves.
That brought an end to the eye-popping rally stocks had experienced since March 23, 2020.
Remember: Stocks had briefly fallen into bear market territory on May 20. Then a late-day rally rescued the market from closing below that level for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.
Now it’s official. The latest bull market lasted just over 21 months — the shortest on record, according to Howard Silverblatt, an analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Over the past century, bull markets have lasted an average of about 60 months.
Still, the most recent iteration was powerful, lifting the S&P 500 to 70 record highs in 2021.
Cryptocurrencies also rode positive sentiment higher last year. Bitcoin touched a record high of almost $68,790 last November.
It’s now in free fall, hitting its lowest level since late 2020 on Monday, and sliding again Tuesday. Two of the world’s biggest crypto platforms restricted activity amid the meltdown, raising concerns about market stability.

Democrats call for a windfall tax on oil profits

Last week, I wrote about how Exxon’s surging profits have lifted its stock to its highest level in years. But it’s not just investors that are paying attention.
Progressive Democrats are also honing in on the good fortune of oil and gas companies as they hunt for ways to show they’re working to address the consequences of rampant inflation.
Calls are growing for Exxon and its peers to give some of their hefty profits back to Americans who are struggling under the weight of higher prices, especially after the Conservative government in the United Kingdom introduced just such a measure last month.
“The oil companies are raking in record profits and yet they are increasing their prices at the pump. To me that just makes no sense,” Robert Reich, who served as Labor Secretary under President Bill Clinton, recently told CNN.
The White House may agree.
“It’s outrageous that oil and gas companies are able to take advantage and make four times the profits that they made when there wasn’t a war,” Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the National Economic Council, said last week. He did not rule out support for a windfall profit tax.
Big Oil is pushing back hard. The American Petroleum Institute said in a statement that raising taxes on the industry will discourage investment in new production, which it said is “exactly the opposite of what needs to happen.”
“It’s unfortunate that some policymakers continue to be more focused on scoring political points with tried-and-failed policies rather than advancing solutions that could actually address the factors behind rising prices,” said the industry lobby’s senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs.

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StatCan latest wealth survey shows stark disparity between homeowners, renters

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TORONTO – Statistics Canada‘s latest financial security survey shows a stark disparity between the wealth of homeowners and renters, even as it fails to capture the true scale what’s owned by Canada’s richest families.

The survey, conducted only every few years, shows home-owning families whose main earner was 55 to 64, and who had an employer-sponsored pension, had a median net worth of $1.4 million in 2023. Renters without a pension plan in the age group had a median net worth of $11,900.

Home ownership was the main factor in the difference, as those who owned their home but didn’t have a pension had a median net worth of $914,000, while those with a pension but did not own had a median net worth of $359,000.

The data released Tuesday also shows Canadians of all income brackets are trying to get into real estate, said Dan Skilleter, director of policy at economic inclusion non-profit Social Capital Partners.

“The most striking numbers they have in here are about just the growth of real estate as an asset class,” he said.

“So it’s clear everyone’s been getting signals about how important that is, and I think that is dysfunctional, and has been leading to an unsustainable situation where real estate has become an essential stepping-stone to really have any financial security in Canada.”

The picture in the report was similar for families whose main earner was under 35, as the median net worth of those who own their principal residence was $457,100, compared with $44,000 for those who don’t.

The gap for young families is even larger than at first glance though, as Statistics Canada notes that of that $44,000 net worth, an increasing amount is due to renters owning real estate that is not their principal residence.

It noted that of renters without pensions, 15 per cent had a net worth above $150,000 in 2023, compared with five per cent in 2019, as more buy into real estate.

Overall, the survey found the median net worth of Canadian households was $519,700, up 57 per cent from 2019 when it was last conducted.

The median wealth of households under 35 was $159,100, up from $56,400 in 2019, while the 55 to 64 category was the richest at $873,400, up from $797,000 four years earlier.

The survey involved a 45-minute questionnaire sent to a sampling of almost 40,000 homes to provide a detailed view of what families own and what debts they have.

“It’s really the only survey we have where the government gets to peer into the full financial story of families,” Skilleter said.

The survey, however, has a significant blind spot for Canada’s wealthiest. Statistics Canada divides the survey in tiers to make sure various household categories are represented, but the highest tier is the wealthiest five per cent in Canada, meaning anyone above about $2.4 million for the 2019 survey.

The broad top category means the top one per cent, and 0.1 per cent, are hardly captured, Skilleter said.

“What’s not part of the survey is to take a broader look at the Canadian economy and see: is wealth concentration in general getting worse or getting better,” he said.

“And much to my dismay, they can’t even take a stab at answering that question, because they don’t set up their survey to even have a good chance of getting a single billionaire or 100 millionaire to take the survey.”

The richest family in the 2012 version of the survey had a net worth of $23.7 million, and $27.3 million in the 2016 report, while Credit Suisse estimates there are more than 5,500 Canadians with a net worth of more than $50 million, including 120 with a net worth of more than $500 million, Skilleter noted in an April report.

Statistics Canada said the share of wealth held by the top one per cent will be understated in this data source. Skilleter notes that the U.S. specifically carves out a tier for billionaires to make sure they’re represented in the results of its wealth survey, which helps to show the economic inequality in that country.

Canada has looked more equal based on the data from the survey, but it can be misleading.

Data from the 2019 survey was used to estimate Canada’s top one per cent held about 13.7 per cent of wealth, and the 0.1 per cent held 2.8 per cent. But combining the survey with outside data like the Forbes rich list, the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the top one per cent held 24.8 per cent, and the top 0.1 per cent held 11.2 per cent of overall wealth.

“We’re not even being made aware of the ways in which ownership of capital is dramatically increasing the fortunes of some,” Skilleter said.

“That would give rise to a more frank conversation about the different ways that public policy…could intervene and make people’s lives better.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 29, 2024.

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Statistics Canada reports August retail sales up 0.4% at $66.6 billion

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.6 billion in August, helped by higher new car sales.

The agency says sales were up in four of nine subsectors as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 3.5 per cent, boosted by a 4.3 per cent increase at new car dealers and a 2.1 per cent gain at used car dealers.

Core retail sales — which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers — fell 0.4 per cent in August.

Sales at food and beverage retailers dropped 1.5 per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers fell 1.4 per cent.

In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in August.

Looking ahead, Statistics Canada says its advance estimate of retail sales for September points to a gain of 0.4 per cent for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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