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Braid: Russia's economy is too small and weak to sustain Putin's delusions – Calgary Herald

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Russia’s economy is both fragile and pathetically small for a giant nation with such abundant resources

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Vladimir Putin’s Russia looks big and tough these days, a malign giant on the world stage.

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There’s no doubt about the bigness. Russia has the largest area of any nation, 17 million square kilometres, followed by Canada, with nine million.

Russia occupies about 10 per cent of the world’s inhabitable land mass. The Soviet Union was even more vast, with 22.4 million square kilometres.

Putin appears to fret because his is no longer that much bigger than ours.

Russia also has a large, well-equipped military backed by nuclear weapons. This makes the Putin regime dangerous and murderous, as Ukrainians know all too painfully.

But behind the appearances lies reality: Russia’s economy is both fragile and pathetically small for a giant nation with such abundant resources.

The Russian system not only fails to create wealth by any standard of international success, but also diverts vast sums of existing resources to oligarchs.

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“Russia has about two per cent of the world economy,” says U of C economist Trevor Tombe.

“Canada’s is slightly larger, just above two per cent. That sort of puts things in perspective.”

The comparison doesn’t mean Canada is economically weak, however. We do much more with our two per cent to generate wealth and benefit citizens. And our economy is the world’s ninth largest.

Among the rich G7 nations, Canada had a competitive per capita GDP of $43,000 in 2020, according to the World Bank. The U.S. ranked highest with $63,000.

Russia’s GDP per capita was only about $10,000. That’s after it fell by one-third during the era of low oil prices beginning in 2014.

Many countries large and small have higher per capita GDP than Russia, including Finland, with $48,000.

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That’s one reason the Finns fear an invasion. Finland is a rich prize that the Soviet Union already tried to grab once, in the early months of the Second World War.

The first act was to bomb Helsinki and kill civilians. Twenty-one Soviet divisions swarmed into Finland. Sounds familiar.

But Soviet forces stalled miserably in the face of fierce resistance.

Soviet Leader Josef Stalin, worried that the West would intervene, eventually reached a settlement. The same scenario could play out now.

From another angle — total GDP by country — Canada still ranks above Russia, with $1.6 trillion compared to $1.5 trillion.

The numbers vary somewhat among sources, but the relationship doesn’t change: Canada’s economy is larger than Russia’s.

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That’s true even though Russia’s population of 146 million is nearly four times Canada’s 38 million.

Russia strives to expand and conquer with even less economic power behind it than Canada would have, should this nation suddenly be stricken by steroid psychosis.

Wider comparisons also illuminate the weakness behind Putin’s pretensions.

The total GDP of the United States is about $20 trillion, more than 10 times Russia’s.

The U.S. spends a mammoth $778 billion on its military. Russia spends $61 billion, the world’s fourth-highest amount.

But America’s defence spending, gigantic though it is, amounts to only 3.7 per cent of its GDP. Russia’s military budget is 4.3 per cent of that country’s GDP.

The economic output of all 30 NATO countries facing Putin, including Canada and the U.S., is nearly $35 trillion.

And there’s Russia, with $1.5 trillion.

Economic strength and military might are not equivalent, of course. A dictator with ultimate power and dreams of conquest can do enormous harm.

But Putin is reaching far beyond his country’s capacities. That will do him in eventually.

Meanwhile, how tragic it is that Ukrainians suffer and die for his transitory delusions.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

Twitter: @DonBraid

Facebook: Don Braid Politics

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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