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Brazil Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Three Years – The Wall Street Journal

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An assembly line at a plant of Brazilian cosmetics company Natura in Cajamar, Brazil.



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SÃO PAULO—Brazil’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years in 2019 as the government of President Jair Bolsonaro cut spending and investment slowed.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% last year, after expanding 1.3% in each of the previous two years, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, said Wednesday. GDP increased 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.6% in the previous three months.

It was another disappointing year for Brazil’s economy, with growth coming in at less than half the 2.5% forecast by economists at the start of 2019. The year had begun with optimism about Mr. Bolsonaro’s plan to overhaul the country’s insolvent pension system and cut the government deficit, but the outlook and the country’s low interest rates weren’t enough to overcome businesses’ reluctance to boost investment.

The president, who took office on Jan. 1 of last year, moved quickly to try to rein in outlays, making cuts to education, environmental protection and other areas and resulting in a 0.4% decline in government spending in 2019. State investment bank BNDES also slashed lending as the government hoped to spur companies to invest more.

“The private sector was too used to having government help and is still struggling to fill the gap,” said Jason Vieira, chief economist of São Paulo based brokerage Infinity Asset.

A delay to the approval of the pension overhaul also hurt growth in the year. Expectations the bill could be passed by lawmakers in the first half of last year proved to be optimistic. Many companies put investments on hold while waiting to see the final result of the legislation, pushing back the start of some projects and new hires until after it was approved in October.

Growth of gross fixed-capital formation, a measure of investment, slowed to 2.2% in 2019, after increasing 3.9% a year earlier, the IBGE said Wednesday.

The passage of the pension law should boost the economy going forward by freeing up more cash for the government to cut debt, as will Brazil’s unprecedentedly low interest rates, according to economists and investors. The central bank trimmed its benchmark lending rate to a record low 4.25% in February, down from 14.25% in 2016.

The low rates helped some businesses last year, with many reducing their financial costs by refinancing debt, and others getting a boost from demand among Brazilians with access to cheaper loans or people seeking higher returns on their investments.

When the central bank’s benchmark rate was above 14%, “people earned 1% a month on their money, but now they’re getting only about 1% a year, and they’re looking for better places to invest,” said Gabriel Kallas, chief executive of online brokerage Toro Investimentos.

The number of Brazilians investing in the stock market has soared in recent years as returns on fixed-income instruments have fallen along with lending rates, and the money moving from bank accounts to equities will also help boost growth going forward, Mr. Kallas said.

Brazil was also marked last year by a tragedy in the small, rural town of Brumadinho that killed 270 people and hit economic growth. At the end of January, a mining waste dam owned by

Vale SA,

the world’s biggest iron ore producer, collapsed and sent a wave of thick mud sweeping over nearby company offices and a lunch room and into part of the town.

Vale moved quickly to shut down production near other, similar dams around the country to avoid another disaster. Brazilian authorities also ordered the closing of more mines over safety concerns. The closings slashed the company’s output of iron ore by more than 20% in 2019 from 2018, contributing to a 1.1% decline in output by extractive industries last year.

Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

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Tentative deal reached in Metro Vancouver grain strike, federal minister says

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VANCOUVER – Canada’s labour minister says striking grain terminal workers in Metro Vancouver and their employers have reached a tentative labour deal.

Steven MacKinnon announced the agreement between Grain Workers Union Local 333 and the Vancouver Terminal Elevators’ Association in a post on social media platform X, but provided no other details.

The union confirmed the tentative deal in a statement on Facebook, saying its members will conduct the ratification vote by Oct. 4.

The notification from the union also says picket lines were to be removed Saturday and members will return to work pending ratification, ending the strike that had paralyzed grain shipments from Metro Vancouver’s port.

The dispute had previously led to picket lines going up at six Metro Vancouver grain terminals on Tuesday as about 600 workers went on strike.

Canadian grain producers had urged a resolution in the dispute, noting about 52 per cent of the country’s grains moved through Metro Vancouver terminals last year en route to being exported.

Farmers say the strike, happening during crop harvesting, would result in as much as $35 million per day in lost exports.

The Western Grain Elevator Association said on Friday that talks had stalled after two days of negotiations this week, with the employer saying it had increased its offers to settle “outstanding issues.”

The employers group had said they’ve reached the end of their “financial ability to conclude an agreement that industry can absorb” with the last offer, and it was up to the federally appointed mediator to report the results to MacKinnon for the next steps.

MacKinnon says in his tweet that both parties put in “the work necessary to get a deal done.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 28, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite down Friday, U.S. markets mixed as Dow notches another high

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index dipped lower Friday despite strength in energy stocks, while U.S. markets were mixed as the Dow eked out another record but tech stocks dragged.

The mood Friday was mixed after a strong week for equities in both Canada and the U.S., said Andrew Buntain, vice-president and portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust Canada.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 77.01 points at 23,956.82, one day after it . It closed over 24,000 for the first time on Thursday.

The strength this past week wasn’t just in North American markets, noted Buntain, as Chinese stocks enjoyed a rally after the country’s central banks announced a suite of measures intended to boost the economy.

Meanwhile, an undercurrent of broadening strength continued this week as investors spread out their interest beyond a narrow set of tech giants, said Buntain.

“Some of the sectors that have been ignored for several years have been some of the better performers this year,” he said.

“We’re very encouraged by that.”

In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 137.89 points at 42,313. The S&P 500 index was down 7.20 points at 5,738.17 after setting an all-time high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq composite was down 70.70 points at 18,119.59.

A report Friday on one of the U.S. central bank’s preferred measures of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — showed continued cooling.

The Federal Reserve started lowering its key interest rate last week, and is expected to keep going this fall and into 2025.

However, the Fed’s next interest rate decision isn’t until November, noted Buntain, so there’s plenty of data for the central bank to take in yet — including next week’s labour report.

The job market has been an increasingly key focus for the central bank after recent reports showed cooling in that area of the economy. Friday’s report also showed consumer spending in August didn’t meet economists’ expectations.

In Canada, where the Bank of Canada is set for its next rate decision later in October, Friday brought a GDP report that was a little stronger than expected, said Buntain.

“The Bank of Canada has already delivered three cuts and signalled maybe some further reductions,” he said.

If inflation continues to move lower, Buntain added, the Bank of Canada could even announce an outsized half-percentage-point cut, echoing the Fed’s move last week.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.08 cents US compared with 74.22 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 51 cents at US$68.18 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 15 cents at US$2.90 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$26.80 at US$2,668.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.60 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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