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Breakenridge: Blame for the economy is in the eye of the partisan beholder – Calgary Herald

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Alberta Premier Jason Kenney meets with Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland in Calgary, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2020.


THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol

After yet another month of discouraging jobs numbers for Alberta, it’s certainly fair and understandable to wonder who and/or what is responsible for the province’s stubborn unemployment problem.

Depending on whom you ask, the answer might be Jason Kenney, Rachel Notley, Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump, or simply global economic forces beyond our control. Perhaps the answer might even be some variation of “all of the above.”

There’s typically not one simple explanation — or one identifiable hero or villain — when it comes to such matters, which can be inconvenient for those engaged in partisan bloodsport. Depending on one’s partisan stripes, the governing party is entitled to all of the credit or all of the blame when it comes to economic news. Governments probably get too much credit and too much blame for the state of the economy, as it is. Such is politics, though.

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That’s not to suggest that there is no accountability or that policies don’t matter. And for a government that promised not only to create jobs but also to end the “job-killing” policies of its predecessors, it’s reasonable to judge it on this point.

I would argue, though, that for this government — or any government — a period of less than a year is insufficient to conclude whether it has failed to deliver improved economic outcomes. But if indeed Alberta’s unemployment story is a much rosier one in a year or two, that doesn’t automatically mean that the government deserves all the credit, either.

“Where are the jobs, Jason?” the Alberta Federation of Labour demanded to know last week. As you might have guessed, it was not a question it ever asked of Jason’s predecessor. The extent to which a premier is to blame for such things depends largely on your partisan zeal and the holder of that particular office.

But if we accept the premise of the question, shall we expect the AFL to then give kudos to the government if and when we see meaningful progress on the jobless front? Don’t hold your breath.

But partisan zeal cuts both ways. While government defenders might rightly note the complexities of this challenge and the need for patience, there wasn’t such nuance four years ago. By early 2016, the opposition was already blaming the NDP’s “job-killing” policies for the rise in unemployment. And, yes, the Kenney-blamers sounded much like 2020’s Kenney-defenders.

There are also defenders of the current government who would blame the prime minister and his government for Alberta’s continued woes. And while Ottawa is not blameless, would those same people then concede that Trudeau is responsible for Canada’s 40-year lows in unemployment? Probably not.

Moreover, though, Kenney did not put a caveat on his jobs promise. It was not premised on a change in government in Ottawa or favourable changes in various external factors. If you are trying to convince Albertans that a premier can greatly affect the number and quality of jobs available in the province, don’t complain when they hold you to that. Live by the sword, die by the sword, as they say.

While it’s unfair to conclude at this point that the government’s approach has failed, that becomes less unfair the longer it is in power. There’s much on the government’s plate at the moment, but it’s hard to see how job creation isn’t or shouldn’t be priority No. 1.

And there is reason for optimism on this front. Economists largely expect to see improvement this year and next, and we are seeing progress on various major energy infrastructure projects.

While there is logic in the government’s approach of making Alberta a more attractive place for investment, it’s also a long-term effort. Does the government believe we need to stay the course and await the eventual payoff, or does it believe that at some point more urgency and a new or different strategy might be warranted? One needn’t be a partisan to ask those questions.

“Afternoons with Rob Breakenridge” airs weekdays 12:30-3:30pm on 770 CHQR rob.breakenridge@corusent.com  Twitter: @RobBreakenridge

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Economy

IMF Boss Says ‘All Eyes’ on US Amid Risks to Global Economy – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency. 

“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday. 

The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”

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The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last. 

“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”

Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry. 

Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. 

“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”

The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.

China Overcapacity

“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.

“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.

A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.

(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

IMF Boss Says 'All Eyes' on US Amid Risks to Global Economy – Financial Post

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The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency.

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(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency. 

“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday. 

Article content

The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”

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Article content

The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last. 

“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”

Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry. 

Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. 

“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”

The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.

China Overcapacity

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Article content

“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.

“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.

A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.

(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)

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Poland has EU's second highest emissions in relation to size of economy – Notes From Poland

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Poland has EU’s second highest emissions in relation to size of economy  Notes From Poland

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