Britain's economy racing as lockdown lifts, but outlook has not improved: Reuters poll - The Guardian | Canada News Media
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Britain's economy racing as lockdown lifts, but outlook has not improved: Reuters poll – The Guardian

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By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain will expand at its quickest pace in decades this quarter after shrinking at its fastest pace in centuries last quarter, a Reuters poll found, as vast swathes of the economy have reopened following a nationwide shutdown to control the coronavirus.

Despite near-term optimism, almost 85% of respondents, 32 of 38, thought the outlook for the British economy had stayed the same or worsened over the past month, with only six saying it had improved.

The virus has infected almost 15 million people across the world and Britain has the highest death toll in Europe – despite the government forcing businesses to close and citizens to stay home.

(Reuters Poll: UK economic and monetary policy outlook – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/qzjvqwkqavx/UK%20economic%20outlook.PNG)

But many restrictions have now been eased and people are emerging from their homes, returning to work and spending money again, so the economy was expected to expand 12.2% this quarter, the July 13-21 Reuters poll showed, better than the 10.5% recovery predicted last month.

That bounceback comes after an historic 18.9% contraction pencilled in for last quarter and nearly all economists who responded to an extra question said the biggest threat to the recovery would be a second wave of virus infections.

“The economy will almost certainly have imploded over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that in terms of the monthly trajectory, there is clear evidence that the economy has remained on an upward path since May,” said Philip Shaw at Investec.

“But the challenge of course is keeping the economy from running out of steam.”

This year, the economy was expected to contract 9.1%, the median in the poll of over 70 economists showed, and then recover to expand 6.0% in 2021. In a worst case scenario it will shrink 13.0% this year.

Official GDP figures said the economy grew a slower than expected 1.8% in May.

To tackle the hit from COVID-19 to the economy the British government has massively ramped up spending, borrowing 128 billion pounds ($163 billion) last quarter, five times the amount during the same period last year.

But only a slim majority said the Treasury’s response had been enough – 14 of 25 respondents to an additional question said.

“The authorities have done broadly what they needed to do,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

(Reuters Poll: UK economic recovery outlook – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/yxmvjrogevr/Britain%20economy.PNG)

Forming the centrepiece of the government’s support was a scheme to pay 80% of wage bills if staff were put on leave rather than let go. But that is due to close in October and unemployment was seen peaking at 8.0% in the fourth quarter.

The Bank of England chopped borrowing costs to a record low of 0.10% and restarted asset purchases. But no change in policy was expected at its next meeting on Aug. 6.

The bank rate will not rise until 2022, but an additional 70 billion pounds ($89 billion) will be added to the BoE’s existing 745 billion pounds quantitative easing programme toward the end of this year, the poll showed.

Another risk is the expiry of Britain’s transition period with the European Union at the end of the year, after leaving more than 40 years of membership in March.

The two sides resumed talks on Tuesday but while there has been little movement what divides them. Still, the aim of reaching agreement on future ties by October is ambitious but achievable, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Tuesday.

As has been consistent in Reuters polls since the June 2016 vote to leave the EU, economists almost unanimously expect the eventual relationship will be a free trade deal.

“Failure to sign a trade agreement with the EU in 2020 will go down as a major policy error. It is inconceivable to me that the British government would be prepared to take such a risk with the economy, particularly in the current climate,” Commerzbank’s Dixon said.

“But then Brexit and a rational approach to economic policy have never been natural bedfellows.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Polling by Mumal Rathore and Hari Kishan; Editing by Alison Williams)

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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