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Budget 2024 sets up a ‘hard year’ for the Liberals. Here’s what to expect – Global News

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The Liberal government faces a slowing economy and an uphill battle in the polls as it prepares to table its 2024 federal budget on Tuesday.

Global News spoke to Canada’s former parliamentary budget officer ahead of April 16, who said he’s expecting a tight spending plan with little room for surprises or hotly demanded relief on cost-of-living issues for Canadians.

Heading into the third budget under the government’s current mandate, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been on a cross-country tour plugging a series of measures that will be included in the coming year’s spending plans.

Since late March, the Liberals have announced just over $37 billion in new spending and loans planned for the federal budget, according to a Global News analysis. Some of the Liberal announcements have spending spread out over multiple years, while other items come with little to no price tag attached.



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Budget 2024: Here’s what Canadians want from the federal government


A significant amount of spending is tied to the Canadian housing market, in the form of either incentives to build more supply or policy changes to support renters and help prospective buyers get their first rung on the property ladder. Those include promises to help renters build their credit scores, changes to savings plans and amortization rules aimed at promoting affordability and billions in incentives to get more shovels in the ground on new builds.

Outside the housing market, Ottawa is planning to introduce a national lunch program and promised billions for expanded child-care access, boosts to the country’s defence spending and artificial intelligence industry, and a new youth mental health fund.

All the while, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has pledged that the Liberals will not increase the federal deficit past its current $40.1-billion levels.

Liberals have little fiscal room to ‘manoeuvre’: former PBO

Kevin Page, Canada’s first PBO and the president of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, tells Global News the Liberals are facing significant headwinds in trying to keep the deficit stable while also meeting the needs of Canadians.

Canada’s economy may have avoided tipping into a recession in 2023, but growth remains weak under the weight of higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada. That means the federal government is seeing lower revenues flowing into its coffers at the same time its debt is becoming more expensive.


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“Their challenge is, they just don’t have a lot of fiscal room to manoeuvre,” Page explains.

An RBC economics report released last week also warns of consequences for Canadians if governments are tempted to stray from their fiscal anchors, whether that be maintaining the overall size of the deficit or keeping a steady debt-to-GDP ratio.



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CEOs urge CPP investment in Canadian companies in open letter to Chrystia Freeland


Governments, federal or provincial, keeping to their fiscal anchors instils “confidence in voters and financial markets,” author Rachel Battaglia, an economist with RBC, wrote.

Canada’s sovereign triple-A credit rating heading into the 2024 federal budget is “strong,” Battaglia said, but the country risks a downgrade if Ottawa were to stray from its fiscal anchors.

A hit to this key credit rating would trickle down to large banks, and by extension, the rates paid by their customers on products like mortgages, according to Battaglia.

“Even though deeper deficits and higher associated sovereign borrowing costs may feel like a distant problem for many Canadians, the impact has the potential to trickle down to most households and businesses,” Battaglia wrote.

“Therefore, all Canadians have a stake in seeing the federal government meet its fiscal targets.”

Another tactic to increase revenues when economic growth is stalling is by hiking or introducing new taxes. While Freeland has pledged that no new taxes will be levied against the middle class in the 2024 budget, she has been mum on whether taxes on wealthier individuals or corporations could be in the cards.

Little room for surprises in the budget

One tailwind benefiting the federal government this budget season is that the first quarter of real GDP growth in Canada is so far coming in stronger than forecast in Ottawa’s fall economic statement last November.

That’s giving the Liberals a bit more spending room than they would’ve otherwise had amid pressures to maintain the deficit, Page says. But he expects this bandwidth will have been mostly eaten up with the already announced measures, and he does not expect any new big-ticket items will be unveiled on April 16.

Ipsos polling conducted exclusively for Global News last month shows the top demand from voters heading into the federal budget is for financial relief from the rising cost of living.


The most commonly cited priorities from Canadians surveyed by Ipsos about the upcoming 2024 federal budget.


Global News / Ipsos

Some 44 per cent of those surveyed in March said they wanted help with rising daily expenses, followed by 38 per cent who prioritized health-care investments and 33 per cent asking for a reduction in personal taxes.

“Pocketbook issues dominate the list of the things that Canadians want to see addressed in the budget,” Sean Simpson, senior vice-president at Ipsos Global Affairs, told Global News earlier this month.

But Page sees little room for those kinds of relief efforts in the 2024 budget if the Liberals want to maintain the deficit.

The best the Liberals can do is make it look to Canadians like they’re “trying their best” when it comes to acting in a fiscally responsible way while providing support to the most vulnerable, he says.

“I don’t think we’re going to see much new that can make a big difference for families in 2024 with respect to affordability,” Page says.

“It’s possible we see some small measures, but they will be small and targeted.”

The already announced efforts to get more homes built are “incremental steps” to solving the housing crisis, but Page says the country is “millions of units short” of what’s needed to restore affordability. Even efforts to put more housing supply in the pipeline will take years before homes are move-in ready, he says.

“It’s not something that we’re going to solve in the 2024 budget,” Page adds.

Liberals could have better prospects in 2025

Ipsos’s latest political polling from March 28 has the Conservatives up 18 points over the incumbent Liberals, who are themselves only three points ahead of the NDP. Simpson said the Liberals will need to “stop the bleeding” to avoid falling into third place behind the NDP.

A federal election is currently slated for no later than October 2025, but could be called earlier if the Liberals fail a confidence vote or bring down the government themselves.

Page expects a “pretty thin budget” this year, with some major items reserved for a hopeful pre-election budget next year.

But if the Liberals do get to put up another budget before the next federal election is called, Page thinks the incumbent party might find better fortunes in 2025.

By that point, many economists, as well as the Bank of Canada, forecast that the economy will be starting to recover amid anticipated cuts to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.



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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5%


This time next year, the Liberals might find rising revenues will boost their electoral prospects and give them more ammunition to deliver a 2025 budget that would have a better chance at restoring voter confidence in the government, Page says.

“The government knows it’s going to be a hard year economically for Canadians and probably a hard year politically,” he says. “But I think they’re hoping that this will rebalance when we get to 2025.”

– with files from Global News’ Sophall Duch

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Trudeau decried for immigration cuts which scapegoat migrants

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Halifax, Nova Scotia (October 24, 2024) – Today, the Trudeau government announced significant cuts to permanent resident targets for Canada over the next three years. For the first time, targets for temporary residents are also being included in their plan. This follows a series of announcements by the Trudeau government to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada, including low-waged migrant workers.

In 2021, Prime Minister Trudeau made a mandate letter commitment to a regularization program for undocumented people and permanent resident status for migrant workers and students. Earlier this year, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery Tomoya Obokata called Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program “a breeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery” and urged the Government of Canada to provide a clear pathway to permanent residency upon arrival for migrant workers. Instead, these recent changes will mean reduced access to permanent residence for migrants.

In an October 24, 2024 press release, the Government of Canada claims that their new plan “alleviates pressures on housing, infrastructure and social services.”

“These changes unfairly blame and punish migrants. Migrants build communities and bolster the economy. They fund services like healthcare through their taxes, and yet in places like Nova Scotia they are excluded from healthcare coverage. We need real solutions, not more smoke and mirrors,” said Stacey Gomez, Executive Director of the Centre for Migrant Worker Rights Nova Scotia, which is a member of the Migrant Rights Network.

Over 100 organizations have penned an open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warning the government that slashing permanent immigration will force more migrants into temporary and precarious situations, further entrenching their exploitation and worsening conditions for all workers. The letter, signed by nearly every major civil society group in Canada, shows that there is a unified consensus in Canada to expand, not reduce, permanent residency programs, abolish closed work permits and ensure regularization. Read the letter here.

The Migrant Rights Network and its allies are calling on the federal government to immediately reverse this decision and chart a new course that grants equal rights for all migrants. This includes ensuring permanent resident status for everyone, expanding protections for workers, and upholding human rights for all.

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Here is how to prepare your online accounts for when you die

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LONDON (AP) — Most people have accumulated a pile of data — selfies, emails, videos and more — on their social media and digital accounts over their lifetimes. What happens to it when we die?

It’s wise to draft a will spelling out who inherits your physical assets after you’re gone, but don’t forget to take care of your digital estate too. Friends and family might treasure files and posts you’ve left behind, but they could get lost in digital purgatory after you pass away unless you take some simple steps.

Here’s how you can prepare your digital life for your survivors:

Apple

The iPhone maker lets you nominate a “ legacy contact ” who can access your Apple account’s data after you die. The company says it’s a secure way to give trusted people access to photos, files and messages. To set it up you’ll need an Apple device with a fairly recent operating system — iPhones and iPads need iOS or iPadOS 15.2 and MacBooks needs macOS Monterey 12.1.

For iPhones, go to settings, tap Sign-in & Security and then Legacy Contact. You can name one or more people, and they don’t need an Apple ID or device.

You’ll have to share an access key with your contact. It can be a digital version sent electronically, or you can print a copy or save it as a screenshot or PDF.

Take note that there are some types of files you won’t be able to pass on — including digital rights-protected music, movies and passwords stored in Apple’s password manager. Legacy contacts can only access a deceased user’s account for three years before Apple deletes the account.

Google

Google takes a different approach with its Inactive Account Manager, which allows you to share your data with someone if it notices that you’ve stopped using your account.

When setting it up, you need to decide how long Google should wait — from three to 18 months — before considering your account inactive. Once that time is up, Google can notify up to 10 people.

You can write a message informing them you’ve stopped using the account, and, optionally, include a link to download your data. You can choose what types of data they can access — including emails, photos, calendar entries and YouTube videos.

There’s also an option to automatically delete your account after three months of inactivity, so your contacts will have to download any data before that deadline.

Facebook and Instagram

Some social media platforms can preserve accounts for people who have died so that friends and family can honor their memories.

When users of Facebook or Instagram die, parent company Meta says it can memorialize the account if it gets a “valid request” from a friend or family member. Requests can be submitted through an online form.

The social media company strongly recommends Facebook users add a legacy contact to look after their memorial accounts. Legacy contacts can do things like respond to new friend requests and update pinned posts, but they can’t read private messages or remove or alter previous posts. You can only choose one person, who also has to have a Facebook account.

You can also ask Facebook or Instagram to delete a deceased user’s account if you’re a close family member or an executor. You’ll need to send in documents like a death certificate.

TikTok

The video-sharing platform says that if a user has died, people can submit a request to memorialize the account through the settings menu. Go to the Report a Problem section, then Account and profile, then Manage account, where you can report a deceased user.

Once an account has been memorialized, it will be labeled “Remembering.” No one will be able to log into the account, which prevents anyone from editing the profile or using the account to post new content or send messages.

X

It’s not possible to nominate a legacy contact on Elon Musk’s social media site. But family members or an authorized person can submit a request to deactivate a deceased user’s account.

Passwords

Besides the major online services, you’ll probably have dozens if not hundreds of other digital accounts that your survivors might need to access. You could just write all your login credentials down in a notebook and put it somewhere safe. But making a physical copy presents its own vulnerabilities. What if you lose track of it? What if someone finds it?

Instead, consider a password manager that has an emergency access feature. Password managers are digital vaults that you can use to store all your credentials. Some, like Keeper,Bitwarden and NordPass, allow users to nominate one or more trusted contacts who can access their keys in case of an emergency such as a death.

But there are a few catches: Those contacts also need to use the same password manager and you might have to pay for the service.

___

Is there a tech challenge you need help figuring out? Write to us at onetechtip@ap.org with your questions.

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Police suggest speed a factor in fiery EV crash that killed four in downtown Toronto

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TORONTO – Speed was considered a factor in a fiery overnight crash in downtown Toronto that killed four people and injured one woman, officials said Thursday, underlining the challenges firefighters face when batting electric-vehicle battery fires.

The Tesla car was travelling at a “high rate of speed” when it lost control, slammed into a guard rail and then caught fire along Lake Shore Boulevard east of Cherry Street shortly after midnight, Toronto police Deputy Insp. Phillip Sinclair said Thursday.

“There is some evidence to suggest that speed was a factor,” he said.

Sinclair described the crash as “heartbreaking.” All four people who were killed — three men and one woman — were in their 20s and 30s, he said.

The surviving woman was pulled from the car by a motorist who stopped to help, he said. The woman, in her 20s, was sent to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

“Thanks very much to that bystander. We have been speaking to them, and obviously they are also deeply affected by this incident — a very horrific scene for that bystander to step in,” Sinclair told a press conference Thursday morning.

Toronto’s deputy fire chief said the crash underlined the challenge firefighters can face when trying to put out electric-vehicle battery fires.

“The intensity of the fire is directly linked to the battery cells in the Tesla,” said Jim Jessop, speaking alongside Sinclair.

“But I want to be very clear: we have all attended collisions where we’ve had horrible car fires as well that are gasoline powered.”

One of the major risks in electric-vehicle fires, he said, is when the battery gets into an uncontrollable self-heating chain reaction, or what’s called thermal runaway. The battery can sometimes reignite up to weeks later, he said.

Firefighters at the scene put the car’s battery cell in a dumpster and filled it with sand, then moved it from the scene for safe disposal, he said.

“We don’t want to speculate on the intensity of the fire until the investigation is complete, but certainly it did cause extra care and concern in transporting the vehicle and the battery cell that had been ejected (from the vehicle),” Jessop said.

Talk of battery fire risks comes as the city’s transit agency considers a possible ban on e-bikes and e-scooters from its vehicles. A staff report going before the Toronto Transit Commission’s board says the risks are particularly associated with lithium-ion batteries in uncertified or misused devices.

Research findings from EV FireSafe, a group backed by the Australian government, suggest electric-vehicle battery fires are uncommon and happen less often than gas-powered vehicle fires.

Jessop said Toronto Fire is being “very proactive” in preparing for a future where lithium-ion batteries, the type found in everything from cellphones to cars, are even more common.

He said the service has a working group to help inform its response to public messaging about battery fires and tactics for safe disposal by firefighters.

“It’s something that you know we’re going to have to deal with and continue to deal with as this technology expands … and it’s something that, you know, we’re going to continue to work on,” he said.

Lake Shore Boulevard, the major arterial road along the city’s waterfront, was closed in both directions between the Don Valley parkway and Cherry Street for several hours ahead of the morning rush hour. One lane reopened in each direction later in the morning.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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