Amidst the hopes of a V-shaped recovery of the Indian economy, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had recently estimated that India’s economic growth has surged to 20.1% in the April-June quarter, despite a devastating second wave of COVID-19, while the gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 24.4% in the April-June quarter of 2020-21.
Supporting these estimates, in its recently launched Trade and Development Report 2021, UNCTAD has estimated global growth to hit 5.3% in 2021 and growth in India to hit 7.2%.
According to the report, India showed a strong quarterly growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021, on the back of the momentum of the second half of 2020 and supported by government spending in goods and services.
Meanwhile, a severe and broadly unanticipated second wave of the pandemic hit the country in the second quarter, on top of rising food and general price inflation, forcing widespread lockdowns and drastic consumption and investment adjustments.
Given the inherent fragilities, India’s growth in 2021 as a whole is estimated at 7.2%, which is one of the fastest compared to most countries in the analysis, but is still not sufficient to regain the pre-COVID-19 income level.
However, going forward, the economy is likely to experience a deceleration of growth to 6.7% growth in 2022. Beyond that, and even assuming the pandemic is fully under control, the situation is looking increasingly precarious for many emerging economies. To revive and sustain growth, action is needed both at the international and national levels.
The report strongly supports India’s proposed temporary suspension of the World Trade Organization TRIPS waiver, which is considered as a necessary step to enable the local manufacture of vaccines in developing countries but is being resisted by some advanced economies.
The need for the waiver increases in the face of the inability of COVAX and C-TAP schemes to mobilize the requisite resources from Northern governments and corporations.
Building resilient growth also requires a global strategy that mitigates the threat of global warming whilst simultaneously addressing the inequities and fragilities of a financialized world.
Given the existing constraints on developing countries, new sources of finance are required, including a significant scaling up of support from the international community in line with its commitment to common but differentiated responsibilities.
A robust public sector
At the national level, efforts are required to build resilience, which can only be delivered through public investment. COVID-19 has reinforced the idea that resilience is a public good and responsibility of the state.
It has to be delivered through a robust public sector with the resources to make the necessary investments, provide the complementary services and coordinate the multiple activities that building resilience involves.
Revisiting a theme that the report, now in its 40th year, has long been promoting, the challenge of mobilizing financial resources for sustained growth is seen as too important to be left solely to market forces.
A financial system that accords a more significant role to public banks, breaks up and guards against the emergence of megabanks, and exercises stronger regulatory oversight is less likely to generate speculative excesses and more likely to deliver a healthier investment climate.
The report also warns against cutting wages to boost competitiveness. Wages are a critical source of demand and their growth can stimulate productivity and underpin a strong social contract.
Minimum wages and related labour legislation are needed for appropriate protection against abusive practices. Policies targeting informality are of particular importance, especially for a country like India with a large informal economy.
It is important to build a healthy, diversified economy. For this, a strong industrial policy focusing on building digital capacities is needed. A resilient economy goes beyond offering a residual category of safety nets designed to stop those left behind from falling further.
The article was originally published on The Hindu.
$2T needed to reach 2050 target of net-zero economy: RBC – BNN
OTTAWA — A new report says the country will need roughly $2 trillion to put the economy on a path to net-zero emissions in 30 years, including government spending on things like skills training and backstops to prod the necessary investments.
The report from RBC Economics estimates governments, businesses and communities would have to spend at least $60 billion annually to cut emissions by 75 per cent of current levels and reach the 2050 target of net zero.
Money will be needed to build out the electricity system to handle the expected rise in electric vehicles, which will also need some subsidies to get them off assembly lines and onto Canadian roads, the report says.
There will also have to be investment in retrofitting old buildings faster than current federal plans predict, retraining 100,000 workers with new skills for fast-growing green sectors, and skills training programs to add 200,000 more into the labour force by 2030.
The numbers add up to a massive effort to meet the Trudeau Liberals’ short-term and long-term promises on climate change, but one the Royal Bank report estimates is possible if the government eyes a few key areas.
It’s not about ideology, it’s about math. And we’ve done the math and said, OK, here is how we can get those numbers down towards zero, and this is what it is going to cost,” said John Stackhouse, senior vice-president in the office of the CEO at Royal Bank.We think that it’s doable. So let’s focus in a very kind of business-minded way on the key drivers of emissions change.”
Parliament approved legislation last spring that required the country to eliminate as many greenhouse gas emissions as possible, and capture whatever is left to get to net zero by 2050.
The Liberals haven’t outlined the course to the long-term goal, and won’t before a United Nations climate change conference, known as COP26, looming at the end of the month in Glasgow, Scotland.
The government has increased its emissions-reduction targets for 2030 as required by the climate agreement.
Internal government documents suggest the Liberals are acutely aware of the cost to shift the country to net zero and have looked to push banks and other private sector investors to help with funding and financing.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s officials wrote in a September 2020 briefing note that the country’s financial sector, including banks, will need to play a major role” to create a net-zero economy. The briefing note created ahead of Freeland’s meeting with bank CEOs also noted how their institutions needed to do more tofoster the right conditions to support the acceleration of sustainable investment.”
Unlocking some of the needed spending will require federal politicians to create new platforms to channel private investment into green endeavors that may be akin to the Canada Infrastructure Bank.
The Liberals created the agency in 2017 to use federal dollars as a way to entice funding from private-sector investors, but its efforts and existence have become highly politicized with vows from the NDP and Conservatives to dismantle it if either are elected to govern.
Stackhouse said the country needs organizations similar to the infrastructure bank that can be semi-autonomous in terms of investment selections, but subject to government oversight.
Whatever gets created to spur investment has to survive successive governments through to 2050, and should be depoliticized for a better chance of success, he said.
“This is a 30-year project. There will be different governments during those 30 years. So let’s create entities that can channel both public investment and crowd-in private investment to focus on the key strategic drivers,” Stackhouse said.
But the report also warns of moving too fast, too soon. If there was a sudden and severe decline in oil and gas production, government revenues would fall by about $8 billion annually, which the report says could hamper, not help, the transition.
Minister of Finance to Release 2021 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review on November 4 – Government of Ontario News
U.S. Federal Reserve survey finds economy facing supply chain, other drags – The Globe and Mail
The U.S. Federal Reserve reports that the economy faced a number of headwinds at the start of this month, ranging from supply chain disruptions and labour shortages to uncertainty about the Delta variant of COVID-19.
In its latest survey of business conditions around the U.S., the Fed said Wednesday that a majority of its 12 regions viewed consumer spending, the main driving force for the economy, as remaining positive despite the various speed bumps.
The report noted wide differences in performance, however. It noted that auto sales suffered because of constrained inventories resulting from problems obtaining critical semi-conductor components. Manufacturing, meanwhile, was growing either moderately or robustly depending on which Fed district was reporting.
“Outlook for near-term economic activity remained positive, overall, but some districts noted increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months,” the Fed said in the report on business conditions around the country, known as the beige book.
The report, based on surveys of business contacts by the Fed’s 12 regional banks, will form the basis for discussion when central bank officials next meet on Nov. 2-3.
The Fed is widely expected to announce at that meeting that it will begin to reduce, or taper, its US$120-billion in monthly bond purchases starting either in November or December.
Those purchases have been designed to give the economy an extra boost by holding down long-term interest rates.
A move to trim the purchases is expected to be followed in the second half of next year with the first rate hikes. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate has been at an ultralow zero to 0.25 per cent since the COVID pandemic struck with force in the spring of 2020 but there are growing calls to begin removing its support in the face of rising price pressures this year.
The beige book found “significantly elevated” prices with widespread increases across industry sectors in large part because of supply chain bottlenecks.
Prices for steel, electronic components and shipping costs all “rose markedly” during the survey period, the report said.
Expectations for future price increases varied, the Fed report said, with some business contacts expecting prices to remain high or even increase further, while others expected prices to moderate over the next 12 months.
Fed board member Randall Quarles said in a speech Wednesday that he believes elevated inflation will start to “decline considerably next year from its currently very elevated rate.” That reflects his belief that the factors now disrupting the economy, such as supply bottlenecks, “appear likely to fade over time.”
The beige book report noted that while the demand for labour was high, job gains had been dampened by a low supply of workers, forcing many retail, hospitality and manufacturing companies to cut hours or production because they did not have enough employees.
“Firms reported high turnover as workers left for other jobs or retired,” the Fed report said. “Child-care issues and vaccine mandates were widely cited as contributing to the problem.”
In an effort to deal with the labour shortages, the Fed said many companies were offering more training to prospective workers and also boosting wages.
In addition to higher starting wages and increased pay to retain workers, companies reported offering signing and retention bonuses, flexible work schedules or increased vacation time as other incentives, the Fed survey found.
The Fed’s report was based on interviews conducted by the 12 regional banks on or before Oct. 8.
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