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Building brigades: Canada, NATO allies struggle to shore up Baltic defences against Russian threat

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Canada doesn’t have enough troops to deploy without resorting to mobilization, report warns.

The idea looks good on paper.

But converting NATO’s so-called “tripwire” forces in the three Baltic countries to fully topped-up fighting brigades — the kind that could withstand a Russian invasion — is proving to be a challenge for the lead nations involved: Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany.

At the last NATO summit in Madrid, leaders of the western military alliance ordered the conversion of battle groups in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to full combat brigades with anywhere from 4,000 to 6,000 troops each, depending on the availability of equipment.

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Getting there is proving to be a struggle, according to two recent reports — one from the U.K. House of Commons, the other from a Warsaw-based international affairs think-tank.

Since that June NATO summit, journalists have been asking Canadian politicians and military officials when the Canadian-led brigade in Latvia will be created and what it will look like. Their responses have been vague.

In a recent interview with CBC News, Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre wouldn’t be pinned down to a precise timeline but said “the first exercise we’re looking at is in 2024 … at the brigade level.”

Which means that completing the expansion to brigade level could take Canada two years from start to finish.

And it seems Canada isn’t the only country struggling with the creation of combat brigades — despite the demands of Baltic leaders and the political urgency western politicians have attached to the project.

A research briefing for the British House of Commons noted that the U.K., which leads the NATO mission in Estonia, has two battle groups assigned to the country — one under the alliance flag, the other deployed bilaterally by former prime minister Boris Johnson in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine.

“However, in October the Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the additional battlegroup will not be replaced in 2023,” said the research paper, dated Nov. 21, 2022.

“The U.K. will continue to lead the NATO battlegroup. Instead of the additional battlegroup, the U.K. will hold at high readiness the ‘balance of a Brigade’ in the U.K., available to deploy if needed.”

A British soldier checks equipment on a tank during a break in a NATO exercise at Camp Adazi near Riga, Latvia on Thursday, Nov.17, 2022.
A British soldier checks equipment on a tank during a break in a NATO exercise at Camp Adazi near Riga, Latvia, on Nov. 17, 2022. (Patrice Bergeron/The Canadian Press)

The U.K. also promised to “surge” forces throughout the year to conduct exercises, enhance its headquarters and provide support to the Estonian armed forces.

The problem — according to the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Warsaw-based analytics organization — is that the U.K., like Canada, doesn’t have enough troops to deploy without resorting to drastic measures like mobilization.

“At present — and for the foreseeable future — the British Army is unable to maintain a continuous rotational presence of an entire armoured brigade outside the U.K. without announcing mobilization,” says a Centre for Eastern Studies report entitled Expectations vs. Reality: NATO Brigades in the Baltic States.

Britain’s “3rd Division, intended for operations in the European theater, will only complete the process of restructuring and modernisation by 2030 … That is why London is unable to assign a specific brigade to Estonia, but can only offer individual subunits,” says the report.

How much army does Canada need?

The report goes on to say that “Canada also has the problem of deploying an entire brigade without prior mobilization, as its peacetime armed forces consist of only three mechanized brigades.”

Canada’s federal government is currently re-examining the country’s defence policy. One of the things being discussed as part of that process is the appropriate size of the Canadian military, given how the global security climate has changed in recent years.

The Germans, who lead the NATO battle group in Lithuania, are facing their own challenge — namely, their commitment of troops to the alliance’s standing crisis force.

“The German Army will not have one fully equipped brigade available until 2023, when it will be on duty with NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF),” says the Centre for Eastern Studies analysis.

“The Bundeswehr will only have one fully modernized division available by 2027, and a further two by 2031. It would thus only be able to permanently deploy one brigade in Lithuania on a rotational basis by around 2026.”

All of the current battle groups in the region are multinational formations. Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand has said other nations supporting the Canadian-led operation in Latvia are being consulted about what they might contribute.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Minister of Defence Anita Anand speak with Canadian troops deployed on Operation Reassurance as he visits the Adazi Military base in Adazi, Latvia, on March 8, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

The Canadian military’s operational commander, Vice-Admiral Bob Auchterlonie, said Canada is trying to boost the force in Latvia in tandem with its allies.

“We are working with the U.K. and the Germans on schedule, and we’re working with Latvia on a number of things required to actually get there,” Auchterlonie said in a recent interview with CBC News.

In recent months, Lithuania and Estonia in particular have complained about the plan adopted at the Madrid NATO Summit. They say they don’t want their supporting nations (Germany and the U.K.) to simply rush troops into the countries in the event of an emergency. They want real brigades stationed on their soil, not paper ones.

Auchterloine said Canada is also trying to decide how many troops should be stationed in Latvia on a rotational basis — and how many could be rushed in through what could be contested waters and airspace in the event of a conflict with Russia.

And there’s another problem, according to the Centre for Eastern Studies report.

“Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, none of the Baltic states is in a position to provide the infrastructure necessary to station such forces in the near future,” says the report. “The training grounds and barracks infrastructure is insufficient and needs to be significantly developed.”

Allies have time to prepare: Auchterlonie

Lithuania has said it will make all of the relevant investments by 2026. Estonia just finished negotiations in London last fall to make that happen.

Auchterlonie said Canada is facing the same space crunch in Latvia. Camp Adazi outside of Riga, where the battle group is housed, is “busting at the seams,” adding more tanks and troops is impossible at the moment and a brigade “simply won’t fit,” he said.

The allies, he added, have a bit of time.

“The Russians are fully committed to Ukraine. In terms of threat immediately, is there an immediate threat of Russia heading this way? I’d say that, you know, our allies in the Baltic agree that probably that threat is slightly diminished now,” Auchterlonie said.

If the crisis in the region escalates, he said, allies will want to make sure there are forces available.

“But it’s not going to happen today,” he added. “It’s not going to happen tomorrow.”

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1 dead, 2 critically injured after car crash in Montreal

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Montreal

Three people are in hospital with critical injuries after their vehicle crashed into a tree. Police believe they might be connected to two drive-by shootings that took place early Thursday morning.

2 drive-by shootings also took place overnight

an SPVM car near a taped-off crime scene
Montreal police are investigating a car crash possibly linked to two drive-by shootings. (Mathieu Wagner/Radio-Canada)

Urgences-santé say one person died and two others were critically injured after their vehicle hit a tree in the Rosemont neighbourhood.

Montreal police believe the crash may be linked to two drive-by shootings early Thursday morning.

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The first happened around 5 a.m. on Pie-IX Boulevard. Police say a car was shot at repeatedly and the driver, a 41-year-old man, was injured in the upper body. He was transported to hospital, but his life is not in danger, say police.

Shortly afterward, shots were reported in the Plateau Mont-Royal borough, near the intersection of Saint-Joseph Boulevard and Henri-Julien Avenue. No one was injured.

Police say they are investigating to determine if there is a connection between the collision and the shootings. Montreal police spokesperson Jean-Pierre Brabant says it’s possible those in the vehicle were involved in the shootings.

The province’s independent police watchdog is now involved.

with files from Chloë Ranaldi

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Pakistan airline crew sought asylum in Canada: spokesperson – CTV News

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Typically, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight attendants who arrive in Toronto stay at a hotel overnight, meet back up with their crew the next day and then fly to their next destination.

But increasingly often, PIA attendants aren’t showing up, the airline says. According to PIA, at least eight flight attendants disappeared over the last year and a half.

They have abandoned their jobs and are believed to have sought asylum in Canada, a spokesperson for the government-owned airline says.

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Increased occurrences

Abdullah Hafeez Khan said at least eight flight attendants “have gone missing” after flying to Pearson International Airport in Toronto. He said these incidents have been happening over the last 10 years, but are now occurring more frequently.

“Since probably October of 2022, the number of the people that have opted asylum has increased tremendously,” Khan said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca from Karachi, Pakistan, where the airline is based.

“None of those crew members that disappeared in the last one-and-a-half years have come back. So they were granted asylum for one way or the other, and that probably has encouraged others to do so.”

The missing employees were fired immediately and lost their company benefits, Khan said.

Why did they flee?

Khan said he could only speculate as to why the flight attendants would flee.

The Canadian government underscored the volatile situation in Pakistan, warning in a travel advisory of a “high threat of terrorism,” along with threats of civil unrest, sectarian violence and kidnapping.

“The security situation is fragile and unpredictable,” the Canadian travel advisory reads. “Incidents are typically attributed to extremism, ethnic divisions, sectarian strife, regional political disputes and the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan.”

It added that many deaths and injuries have occurred from bombings, shootings and other terrorist attacks at a wide range of targets.

Since Khan isn’t in contact with any of the missing employees, he says, he assumes they decided to seek asylum in Canada for economic and social reasons.

“So I naturally assumed that all of them have been given asylum because I don’t think they would be living there illegally,” he said, adding they may already have family connections in Canada who can support them.

In this June 8, 2013, photo, a Pakistan International Airlines plane moments before take off from the Benazir Bhutto airport in Islamabad, Pakistan. (AP Photo/Anjum Naveed)

‘PR crisis’

Khan called the flight attendants’ disappearances a “PR crisis” for PIA that is “bad” for business amid a crew shortage.

The airline is in talks with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Pakistani law enforcement agencies to potentially create a “legal safeguard” to curtail flight crew from seeking asylum, he said.

When asked about the PIA flight attendants’ disappearances, Erin Kerbel, spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, said the department couldn’t comment on specific cases due to privacy legislation.

In response to questions about PIA’s claim that discussions are underway about the issue, a spokesperson for the CBSA said it could not confirm any information.

“The Canada Border Services Agency does not provide comment or details on specific individuals, including any discussions that would take place with airline companies, as an individual’s border and immigration information is considered private and protected by the Privacy Act,” Maria Ladouceur said in an email to CTVNews.ca.

Since the crew members’ disappearances, Khan said, the airline has “done numerous things to curtail that.”

For instance, the airline is only staffing Toronto-bound flights with crew members who have “established linkages” in Pakistan, such as children, spouses or parents, as well as those who have worked in the organization for more than 15 years.

The airline avoids sending to Toronto those who are single or don’t have established family ties in Pakistan, he said.

Khan said he and the airline are no longer in contact with the flight attendants because, they discovered, they usually change their phone numbers soon after disappearing in Toronto.

Who disappeared?

The PIA flight attendants who vanished in Canada are seasoned pros in their late 30s or 40s, some of whom have worked for the airline for as long as two decades, Khan said.

“There was never any sign from them that they would seek something like that,” he said. “So that is something that is bothering us in the matter because working with people who have been working with you for a long time and then something happens like this is pretty unexpected.”

In one of the latest cases in February, the crew members were waiting to take the bus back to the airport from the hotel in Toronto and one of the flight attendants didn’t show up, Khan said.

The airline was unable to reach the flight attendant on her cellphone or hotel landline so, Khan says, they asked hotel management to check if she was OK.

“When the crew went there, she left her uniform there with a note saying, ‘Thank you PIA,'” Khan said, which he interpreted as a genuine sentiment of gratitude for her more than 15 years of service with PIA rather than a taunt.

Khan said the crew members who disappeared were “family values people” who had good careers in Pakistan.

Asylum policies

Individuals can make a refugee claim in Canada at a port of entry upon arrival or online if they are already in Canada, according to the Canadian government’s website.

Canadian immigration or border officials will determine if the person is eligible for a hearing before the Immigration and Refugee Board. All claimants must undergo health and security screenings, the government says.

If eligible to make a claim in Canada, refugee claimants can access social assistance, education, health services, emergency housing and legal aid pending a decision on their claim. Most can apply for a work permit after a medical examination.

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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