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Bulls, Bears And Buffaloes: What Investment Strategists Are Telling Advisors And Investors To Expect In 2022 – Forbes

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As 2022 approaches, markets continue to be powered by strong earnings growth as advisors and investors price in inflation and expected interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Forbes spoke with several investment strategists about what to expect from 2022.

Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Bank of America

BAC
Merrill Lynch

Prediction:

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Hyzy and his colleagues at Bank of America are characterizing 2022 as a “new dawn” for markets. He is expecting a “boring” total return of 7% to 10% after years of double digit returns.

Allocations:

U.S. equities remain the most attractive to Hyzy, with his firm overweight domestic versus international on the back of a strong dollar while also seeing value from economic growth in Europe and Japan. Merrill recently upgraded small cap stocks because of capital expenditure and an expectation for a “catch up cycle” relative to large caps and he is bullish on cyclicals, including financials, energy, materials and industrials..

Tech Stocks:

Hyzy is still bullish on growth stocks, specifically mega cap technology firms, a sector investors see as safe. With abundant free cash flow generation and strong earnings growth, he expects tech titans to grow at least commensurate with the market despite premium valuations.

Buffalo Market:

Eschewing the traditional dichotomy of bull and bear, Hyzy instead opted for the term “buffalo market.”

“We last used this term in 2012, it is in the bull family. A buffalo market is just a less attractive bull that gets tired more easily and roams quite a bit but ultimately moves forward in the prairie.”

Bearish Views:

Despite his overwhelmingly bullish sentiment, Hyzy sees some trouble for low profit companies as higher interest rates cause pressure on margins. He expects a knee jerk sell off from markets when rate hikes come to fruition, adding that his firm would be buyers in any equity drawdown.

Angelo Kourkafas, Investment Strategist, Edward Jones

Prediction:

Kourkafas is expecting value stocks and cyclicals to be the main beneficiaries of above-trend economic growth in 2022, especially in the first half of the year.

He is projecting the S&P 500 to end 2022 at around 5,000, 4.9% above Dec. 31’s close.

GDP Growth: 

Kourkafas sees strong consumer balances and a shift of demand from goods to services as a tonic for the economy. He is estimating GDP growth between 3% and 4% in 2022.. He also predicts larger capital expenditure spending and inventory rebuilding to support outsize growth.

Investment Returns:

Kourkafas expects moderate single-digit returns from U.S. stocks in 2022, along with increased volatility.

Stock Picks:

Sector wise, he is bullish on consumer staples, utilities and health care. He also likes emerging market equities and international small and midcap stocks, which will benefit from growth in China next year.

Memestocks and Crypto:

With a less accommodative Fed, Kourkafas sees less air for speculative bubbles, including memestocks and cryptocurrencies, citing recent declines in AMC, GameStop

GME
and Bitcoin. 

“Investors should be mindful of portfolio diversification because what has worked this year is not likely to continue working into next year, especially when it comes to the narrow bets that we have seen some investors take.”

Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Raymond James

RJF

Prediction: 

Adam sees economic momentum from recent fiscal stimulus and expects growth of 3.5% for 2022, powered by consumer demand, capital expenditures by business, and inventory rebuilding.

Raymond James has a target price of 5,050 for the S&P 500 to close next year, 6% above the Dec. 31 close.

Inflation: 

Adam calls inflation a “gift to markets,” bringing with it higher corporate earnings and wage growth. He also says inflation fears helped doom President Biden’s Build Back Better plan and the punitive tax hikes that would have come with it. 

Policymakers:

Adam expects Democrats to lose control of the House of Representatives, leading to gridlock in Congress that will allow a strong market to roll on undisturbed by politics.

Tech Stocks:

Adam is still bullish on large tech stocks, despite expensive valuations and because of their diversified business lines. He also is bullish on cyclicals, including consumer discretionary, financial and industrials.

Darrell Cronk, Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo

WFC

Prediction: 

Earnings growth from U.S. companies should help drive the S&P 500 higher by more than 10% in 2022 even if already stretched price-earnings multiples don’t get any loftier. Cronk expects a “super bull market for commodities,” especially energy, industrials, agriculture, soft commodities and precious metals.

Wells Fargo is projecting the S&P 500 to end 2022 at around 5200 points, 9.1% above Dec. 31’s close.

Fed action: 

Cronk doesn’t expect the Fed to be as aggressive as Wall Street is expecting. After tapering ends in March, he expects only one or two rate hikes, rather than the three suggested by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Inflation:

With producer prices jumping at more than a 9% annual rate in November, and consumer prices  rising nearly 7%, Cronk sees inflation peaking in the first half of 2022, as pressure on producers shifts to consumers. 

What he is watching:

Cronk focuses on  credit spreads, the yield curve, corporate margins, and the U.S. dollar to inform his economic outlook. 

Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist, Hightower

Prediction: 

Link expects the S&P 500 to gain 5% in 2022.

Projected Growth

Link sees pent-up demand driving economic growth of 4% in 2022.

Inflation:

Link expects rent and wage increases to continue to push up inflation in 2022.

Investment Strategy:

Link recommends investing in a blend of cyclical and growth stocks. She expects financials, industrials, materials, consumer discretionary and energy to benefit from both GDP growth and inflation.

Denise Chisolm, Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, Fidelity Investments

Prediction:

Chisolm sees more upside to the market and expects the bull market to climb a “wall of worry” in 2022.

Chisholm is projecting an above average year for returns and a strong year for equities.

Inflation:.

Chisolm expects a deceleration in inflation over the next 12 months.

Don’t Fear The Fed

“There’s a lot of concern in the market that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates and that’s going to be a problem for the overall stock market or for the overall economy. What you see when you look back through history is that that’s not often the case.”

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BWXT announces $80M investment for plant in Cambridge – CityNews Kitchener

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BWX Technologies (BWXT) in Cambridge is investing $80-million to expand their nuclear manufacturing plant in Cambridge.

Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, was in the city on Friday to join the company in the announcement.

The investment will create over 200 new skilled and unionized jobs. This is part of the province’s plan to expand affordable and clean nuclear energy to power the economy.

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“With shovels in the ground today on new nuclear generation, including the first small modular reactor in the G7, I’m so pleased to see global nuclear manufacturers like BWXT expanding their operations in Cambridge and hiring more Ontario workers,” Smith said. “The benefits of Ontario’s nuclear industry reaches far beyond the stations at Darlington, Pickering and Bruce, and this $80 million investment shows how all communities can help meet Ontario’s growing demand for clean energy, while also securing local investments and creating even more good-paying jobs.”

The added jobs will support BWXT’s existing operations across the province as well as help the sector’s ongoing operations of existing nuclear stations at Darlington, Bruce and Pickering.

“Our expansion comes at a time when we’re supporting our customers in the successful execution of some of the largest clean nuclear energy projects in the world,” John MacQuarrie, President of Commercial Operations at BWXT, said.

“At the same time, the global nuclear industry is increasingly being called upon to mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase energy security and independence. By investing significantly in our Cambridge manufacturing facility, BWXT is further positioning our business to serve our customers to produce more safe, clean and reliable electricity in Canada and abroad.”

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AI investments will help chip sector to recover: Analyst – Yahoo Finance

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The semiconductor sector is undergoing a correction as interest rate cut expectations dwindle, prompting concerns about the impact on these high-growth, technology-driven stocks. Wedbush Enterprise Hardware Analyst Matt Bryson joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the dynamics shaping the chip industry.

Bryson acknowledges that the rise of generative AI has been a significant driving force behind the recent success of chip stocks. While he believes that AI is shifting “the way technology works,” he notes it will take time. Due to this, Bryson highlights that “significant investment” will continue to occur in the chip market, fueled by the growth of generative AI applications.

However, Bryson cautions that as interest rates remain elevated, it could “weigh on consumer spending.” Nevertheless, he expresses confidence that the AI revolution “changing the landscape for tech” will likely insulate the sector from the effect of high interest rates, as investors are unwilling to miss out on the “next technology” breakthrough.

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For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: As rate cut bets shift, so have moves in one sector, in particular. Shares of AMD and Intel, both down over 15% in the last 30 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as Sox, dropping over 10% from recent highs, despite a higher rate environment.

Our next guest is still bullish on the sector. Matt Bryson, Wedbush Enterprise Hardware analyst, joins us now. Matt, thanks so much for taking the time here. Walk us through your thesis here, especially, given some of the pullback that we’ve seen recently.

MATT BRYSON: So I think what we’ve seen over the last year or so is that the growth of generative AI has fueled the chip stocks. And the expectation that AI is going to shift everything in the way that technology works.

And I think that at the end of the day, that that thesis will prove out. I think the question is really timing. But the investments that we’ve seen that have lifted NVIDIA, that have lifted AMD, that have lifted the chip stock and sector, in general, the large cloud service providers, building out data centers. I don’t think anything has changed there in the near term.

So when I speak to OEMs, who are making AI servers, when I speak to cloud service providers, there is still significant investment going on in that space. That investment is slated to continue certainly into 2025. And I think, as long as there is this substantial investment, that we will see chip names report strong numbers and guide for strong growth.

SEANA SMITH: Matt, when it comes to the fact that we are in this macroeconomic environment right now, likelihood that rates will be higher for longer here, at least, when you take a look at the expectations, especially following some of the commentary that we got from Fed officials this week, what does that signal more broadly for the AI trade, meaning, is there a reason to be a bit more cautious in this higher for longer rate environment, at least, in the near term?

MATT BRYSON: Yeah. I think certainly from a market perspective, high interest rates weight on the market. Eventually, they weigh on consumer spending. Certainly, for a lot of the chip names, they’re high multiple stocks.

When you think about where there can be more of a reaction or a negative reaction to high interest rates, certainly, it has some impact on those names. But in terms of, again, AI changing the fundamental landscape for tech, I don’t think that high interest rates or low interest rates will change that.

So when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, all of those large data center operators looking at AI, potentially, changing the landscape forever and wanting to make a bet on AI to make sure that they don’t miss that change, I don’t think whether interest rates are low or high are going to really affect their investment.

I think they’re going to go ahead and invest because no one wants to be the guy that missed the next technology wave.

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If pension funds can't see the case for investing in Canada, why should you? – The Globe and Mail

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It’s time to ask a rude question: Is Canada still worth investing in?

Before you rush to deliver an appropriately patriotic response, think about the issue for a moment.

A good place to begin is with the federal government’s announcement this week that it is forming a task force under former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. The task force’s job will be to find ways to encourage Canadian pension funds to invest more of their assets in Canada.

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Wooing pension funds has become a high-priority matter for Ottawa because, at the moment, these big institutional investors don’t invest all that much in Canada. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for instance, had a mere 14 per cent of its massive $570-billion portfolio in Canadian assets at the end of its last fiscal year.

Other major Canadian pension plans have similar allocations, especially if you look beyond their holdings of government bonds and consider only their investments in stocks, infrastructure and real assets. When it comes to such risky assets, these big, sophisticated players often see more potential for good returns outside of Canada than at home.

This leads to a simple question: If the CPPIB and other sophisticated investors aren’t overwhelmed by Canada’s investment appeal, why should you and I be?

It’s not as if Canadian stocks have a record of outstanding success. Over the past decade, they have lagged far behind the juicy returns of the U.S.-based S&P 500.

To be fair, other countries have also fallen short of Wall Street’s glorious run. Still, Canadian stocks have only a middling record over the past 10 years even when measured against other non-U.S. peers. They have trailed French and Japanese stocks and achieved much the same results as their Australian counterparts. There is no obvious Canadian edge.

There are also no obvious reasons to think this middle-of-the-pack record will suddenly improve.

A generation of mismanagement by both major Canadian political parties has spawned a housing crisis and kneecapped productivity growth. It has driven household debt burdens to scary levels.

Policy makers appear unwilling to take bold action on many long-standing problems. Interprovincial trade barriers remain scandalously high, supply-managed agriculture continues to coddle inefficient small producers, and tax policy still pushes people to invest in homes rather than in productive enterprises.

From an investor’s perspective, the situation is not that appetizing. A handful of big banks, a cluster of energy producers and a pair of railways dominate Canada’s stock market. They are solid businesses, yes, but they are also mature industries, with less than thrilling growth prospects.

What is largely missing from the Canadian stock scene are big companies with the potential to expand and innovate around the globe. Shopify Inc. SHOP-T and Brookfield Corp. BN-T qualify. After that, the pickings get scarce, especially in areas such as health care, technology and retailing.

So why hold Canadian stocks at all? Four rationales come to mind:

  • Canadian stocks have lower political risk than U.S. stocks, especially in the run-up to this year’s U.S. presidential election. They also are far away from the front lines of any potential European or Asian conflict.
  • They are cheaper than U.S. stocks on many metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios and dividend yields. Scored in terms of these standard market metrics, they are valued more or less in line with European and Japanese stocks, according to Citigroup calculations.
  • Canadian dividends carry some tax advantages and holding reliable Canadian dividend payers means you don’t have to worry about exchange-rate fluctuations.
  • Despite what you may think, Canada’s fiscal situation actually looks relatively benign. Many countries have seen an explosion of debt since the pandemic hit, but our projected deficits are nowhere near as worrisome as those in the United States, China, Italy or Britain, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

How compelling you find these rationales will depend upon your personal circumstances. Based strictly on the numbers, Canadian stocks look like ho-hum investments – they’re reasonable enough places to put your money, but they fail to stand out compared with what is available globally.

Canadians, though, have always displayed a striking fondness for homebrew. Canadian stocks make up only a smidgen of the global market – about 3 per cent, to be precise – but Canadians typically pour more than half of their total stock market investments into Canadian stocks, according to the International Monetary Fund. This home market bias is hard to justify on any rational basis.

What is more reasonable? Vanguard Canada crunched the historical data in a report last year and concluded that Canadian investors could achieve the best balance between risk and reward by devoting only about 30 per cent of their equity holdings to Canadian stocks.

This seems to be more or less in line with what many Canadian pension funds currently do. They have about half their portfolio in equities, so devoting 30 per cent of that half to domestic stocks works out to holding about 15 per cent of their total portfolio in Canadian equities.

That modest allocation to Canadian stocks is a useful model for Canadian investors of all sizes. And if Ottawa doesn’t like it? Perhaps it could do more to make Canada an attractive investment destination.

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