Byelection win fuels ongoing U.S. debate: Are Democrats in better shape than polls suggest? | Canada News Media
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Byelection win fuels ongoing U.S. debate: Are Democrats in better shape than polls suggest?

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The results of a special election this week poured fuel on a debate raging among American political observers.

The topic: Are Democrats actually in better shape than they appear heading into this year’s presidential election?

Because by conventional standards, they seem to be in pretty rough shape. Poll after poll shows Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, nationally and in swing states.

In fact, Trump has never enjoyed surveys this good, not in either of his past two elections, which he won and nearly won.

On the other side, doubters of these polls insist that what matters is results. Real election results. By that standard, Democrats are enjoying a hot streak.

This week they reclaimed the New York City district previously held by Republican congressman George Santos — the accused fraudster infamous for lying about being Jewish, about where he went to school and worked, and about his mother dying in a terrorist attack.

It’s no isolated success, either. Democrats defied both the polls and history last year for an incumbent party — they gained a Senate seat, almost held the House, gained two state governorships, took control of four state legislative chambers and won a string of special elections.

‘See you in November’

A triumphant-sounding Democratic congressman celebrated Tuesday’s result with a taunt about this fall’s presidential election.

The polling numbers for U.S. President Joe Biden have given Democrats cause for concern about his re-election chances in November. (Matt Rourke/The Associated Press)

“We’ll see you in November,” Rep. Ted Lieu said Wednesday, the day after Democrats won Santos’s seat. He ascribed the win to voters recognizing which of the major parties actually cares about governing.

“What are Republicans focused on? Stupid stuff, like baseless impeachments with no evidence, stopping a national security package that’s going to improve America’s national security, and doing things that no one in America really wants them to do…. The American people want a Congress that actually does something.”

Needless to say, Republicans drew contradictory conclusions from the result.

They pointed to the Democrats’ advantages in this race: they spent heavily; ran a well-known former congressman and mayor against an unknown Republican criticized for avoiding public events; and in a district with a history of swinging wildly between parties, they capitalized on Santos’s inimitable array of personal scandals.

“There are a lot of factors there. That [result] is in no way a bellwether of what will happen this fall,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said. “There is a fervour among the American people. People know this country is on the wrong track.”

Shift in voter habits

So what’s going on here?

What’s undisputedly happening is that there’s a shift helping Democrats perform better than they once did in low-turnout contests like Tuesday’s byelection in New York.

The parties are undergoing a realignment in their voter coalitions — with the college-educated, and the most politically engaged, voters drifting toward the Democrats.

Could the Democrats replace Joe Biden?

 

U.S. President Joe Biden has come out swinging against a special council report that called him ‘an elderly man with a poor memory.’ With an election just months away, CBC’s Asha Tomlinson asks Washington insiders Brian Stelter and Philip Bump to break down where the Democrats go from here.

Just look at the historical trendline.

College-educated voters now constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate — that’s double their share from 2000. These voters now make up a far higher share of the Democratic electorate than the Republican one.

It’s a historic reversal: these voters used to identify primarily as Republicans.

Republicans used to win most college-educated voters until 2000, but a gradual shift occurred, and it accelerated during the Trump era, culminating in Democrats winning college graduates by about 12 points in 2020.

These sorts of voters are statistically likelier to turn out in an election like Tuesday’s: a low-participation race, during a winter blizzard, to decide a single seat that won’t change control of Congress.

This extended a hot streak for Democrats that began in mid-2022, when the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion, unleashing a torrent of anger and activism on the political left.

Does win streak translate to another presidency?

Democrats have been repeatedly over-performing polls. And not just that: they’ve been improving on past election results. In four districts that have held special elections since the 2022 midterms, Democrats have improved on their previous score in all four, including by a whopping 15 points in a couple of them.

Is any of this predictive of what might happen in this fall’s presidential election?

The head of an election data company acknowledges Democrats have reason to be pleased with recent results.

Supporters of Democrat Raphael Warnock react during an election night party in Atlanta, Ga., on Dec. 6, 2022, after a projected win for Warnock in the midterm runoff for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)

“They have certainly done very well in special elections,” said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, in an interview this week.

But he adds a big caveat. These results don’t tell us much about a presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

“Special elections tend not to be predictive,” McCoy said.

This goes back to the types of voters who show up in presidential versus non-presidential elections. In the midterm elections of both 2022 and 2018, 43 per cent of voters had a college degree.

This is significantly higher than the percentage who had one in presidential elections, six points higher than in 2016 and four points higher than in 2020. Given the close results in presidential swing states, that’s a potentially game-changing difference.

Concerns about the fall

The Democrats’ lead pollster in the New York race this week, Mike Bocian, said the turnout numbers left him feeling positive about November.

He said the Democratic candidate, Tom Suozzi, tapped into a deep desire of voters for solutions, rather than virulent partisanship.

Bocian lauded Suozzi’s centrist message on what’s been a difficult issue for Democrats — the border and immigration. Suozzi advocated more border security, but also more legal immigration, and he contrasted that with Republicans’ alleged obstructionism after that party blocked a border deal.

“That is where the public is,” Bocian told a podcast hosted by The New Republic magazine. “What they want, mostly, is solutions.”

Yet he acknowledged lingering concerns about the fall.

Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks after meeting with members of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters at their headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 31, 2024. (Andrew Harnik/The Associated Press)

One worry is whether lower-propensity voters will turn out in droves for Trump; the former president twice broke a record for most votes received by a Republican candidate.

The other is whether the Democratic base holds together. Young voters, and voters of colour, are unusually disenchanted with Biden, which is a major reason he has fallen behind in the polls.

Bocian said Biden’s campaign must communicate to these voters the threat of a national abortion ban should Republicans win this fall.

Behind that, he said, the campaign has to adjust its usual timetable.

Rather than wait until later in the race to contact base voters in a final get-out-the-vote push, he urged immediate outreach.

“I think that’s gotta change this cycle,” Bocian said. “We need to be reaching out early, often, and making the case to these younger voters and voters of colour.”

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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