The results of a special election this week poured fuel on a debate raging among American political observers.
The topic: Are Democrats actually in better shape than they appear heading into this year’s presidential election?
Because by conventional standards, they seem to be in pretty rough shape. Poll after poll shows Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, nationally and in swing states.
In fact, Trump has never enjoyed surveys this good, not in either of his past two elections, which he won and nearly won.
On the other side, doubters of these polls insist that what matters is results. Real election results. By that standard, Democrats are enjoying a hot streak.
This week they reclaimed the New York City district previously held by Republican congressman George Santos — the accused fraudster infamous for lying about being Jewish, about where he went to school and worked, and about his mother dying in a terrorist attack.
It’s no isolated success, either. Democrats defied both the polls and history last year for an incumbent party — they gained a Senate seat, almost held the House, gained two state governorships, took control of four state legislative chambers and won a string of special elections.
‘See you in November’
A triumphant-sounding Democratic congressman celebrated Tuesday’s result with a taunt about this fall’s presidential election.
The polling numbers for U.S. President Joe Biden have given Democrats cause for concern about his re-election chances in November. (Matt Rourke/The Associated Press)
“We’ll see you in November,” Rep. Ted Lieu said Wednesday, the day after Democrats won Santos’s seat. He ascribed the win to voters recognizing which of the major parties actually cares about governing.
“What are Republicans focused on? Stupid stuff, like baseless impeachments with no evidence, stopping a national security package that’s going to improve America’s national security, and doing things that no one in America really wants them to do…. The American people want a Congress that actually does something.”
Needless to say, Republicans drew contradictory conclusions from the result.
They pointed to the Democrats’ advantages in this race: they spent heavily; ran a well-known former congressman and mayor against an unknown Republican criticized for avoiding public events; and in a district with a history of swinging wildly between parties, they capitalized on Santos’s inimitable array of personal scandals.
“There are a lot of factors there. That [result] is in no way a bellwether of what will happen this fall,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said. “There is a fervour among the American people. People know this country is on the wrong track.”
Shift in voter habits
So what’s going on here?
What’s undisputedly happening is that there’s a shift helping Democrats perform better than they once did in low-turnout contests like Tuesday’s byelection in New York.
The parties are undergoing a realignment in their voter coalitions — with the college-educated, and the most politically engaged, voters drifting toward the Democrats.
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Just look at the historical trendline.
College-educated voters now constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate — that’s double their share from 2000. These voters now make up a far higher share of the Democratic electorate than the Republican one.
It’s a historic reversal: these voters used to identify primarily as Republicans.
Republicans used to win most college-educated voters until 2000, but a gradual shift occurred, and it accelerated during the Trump era, culminating in Democrats winning college graduates by about 12 points in 2020.
These sorts of voters are statistically likelier to turn out in an election like Tuesday’s: a low-participation race, during a winter blizzard, to decide a single seat that won’t change control of Congress.
This extended a hot streak for Democrats that began in mid-2022, when the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion, unleashing a torrent of anger and activism on the political left.
Does win streak translate to another presidency?
Democrats have been repeatedly over-performing polls. And not just that: they’ve been improving on past election results. In four districts that have held special elections since the 2022 midterms, Democrats have improved on their previous score in all four, including by a whopping 15 points in a couple of them.
Is any of this predictive of what might happen in this fall’s presidential election?
The head of an election data company acknowledges Democrats have reason to be pleased with recent results.
Supporters of Democrat Raphael Warnock react during an election night party in Atlanta, Ga., on Dec. 6, 2022, after a projected win for Warnock in the midterm runoff for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)
“They have certainly done very well in special elections,” said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, in an interview this week.
But he adds a big caveat. These results don’t tell us much about a presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
“Special elections tend not to be predictive,” McCoy said.
This goes back to the types of voters who show up in presidential versus non-presidential elections. In the midterm elections of both 2022 and 2018, 43 per cent of voters had a college degree.
This is significantly higher than the percentage who had one in presidential elections, six points higher than in 2016 and four points higher than in 2020. Given the close results in presidential swing states, that’s a potentially game-changing difference.
Concerns about the fall
The Democrats’ lead pollster in the New York race this week, Mike Bocian, said the turnout numbers left him feeling positive about November.
He said the Democratic candidate, Tom Suozzi, tapped into a deep desire of voters for solutions, rather than virulent partisanship.
Bocian lauded Suozzi’s centrist message on what’s been a difficult issue for Democrats — the border and immigration. Suozzi advocated more border security, but also more legal immigration, and he contrasted that with Republicans’ alleged obstructionism after that party blocked a border deal.
“That is where the public is,” Bocian told a podcast hosted by The New Republic magazine. “What they want, mostly, is solutions.”
Yet he acknowledged lingering concerns about the fall.
Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks after meeting with members of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters at their headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 31, 2024. (Andrew Harnik/The Associated Press)
One worry is whether lower-propensity voters will turn out in droves for Trump; the former president twice broke a record for most votes received by a Republican candidate.
The other is whether the Democratic base holds together. Young voters, and voters of colour, are unusually disenchanted with Biden, which is a major reason he has fallen behind in the polls.
Bocian said Biden’s campaign must communicate to these voters the threat of a national abortion ban should Republicans win this fall.
Behind that, he said, the campaign has to adjust its usual timetable.
Rather than wait until later in the race to contact base voters in a final get-out-the-vote push, he urged immediate outreach.
“I think that’s gotta change this cycle,” Bocian said. “We need to be reaching out early, often, and making the case to these younger voters and voters of colour.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
