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Calgary Heritage byelection test of right-wing parties' strength: political scientist – Calgary Herald

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‘We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side’

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A looming federal byelection in a Conservative stronghold in south Calgary could be most relevant as a brawl between parties on the political right, says a political scientist.

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Voters in Calgary Heritage head to the polls Monday to replace a Conservative Party of Canada MP who stepped down last January in the riding once held by former prime minister Stephen Harper.

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Bob Benzen announced last October that he wouldn’t run again, citing a wish not to become “a career politician,” prompting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month to call a byelection for the riding.

The Conservatives won the riding handily in the Sept. 20, 2021, federal election, capturing 57.7 per cent of the vote, with the NDP finishing a distant second with 17.4 per cent.

The Liberals garnered 16.7 per cent of the vote.

The People’s Party of Canada, which some thought could siphon strength from the Conservatives, proved a limited factor in that election with five per cent of ballots cast.

But with at least four of the eight candidates contesting the byelection falling on the right of the political spectrum, the byelection is likely to prove more of a referendum on the strength of the various conservative parties heading toward the 2025 general election, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

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“We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side,” said Williams.

“Are they growing or staying the same? Those parties will be looking at the margins . . . it could have some indications for the upcoming (2025) federal election.”

After a recent succession of leadership races and a provincial election, as well as the fact the byelection is happening in the middle of summer, many voters will likely tune out — but the federal Conservatives under Leader Pierre Poilievre should still win easily, she said.


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While the CPC’s total stranglehold on Alberta weakened by 14 per cent in 2021, with the Liberals claiming two seats in the province and the NDP one, ripping Calgary Heritage from their grasp is considered a long shot.

Four federal byelections last month failed to appreciably alter the political equation, with the Conservatives and Liberals each retaining two seats.

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In three of those races, the Liberals polled better than their previous results but the party shouldn’t expect to replicate that in Calgary Heritage, said Williams.

Conservative candidate has ties to Stephen Harper

Carrying the Conservative Party banner in Harper’s former riding is a man who works closely with the former PM — Calgary native Shuvaloy Majumdar.

A longtime party staffer and foreign policy adviser, Majumdar is a director of Harper’s consulting firm and counts himself a friend of Poilievre.

His campaign didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

But his LinkedIn page says he’s “a nationally recognized and respected thought leader in Canadian foreign policy and national security — advocating for Canadian energy, confronting foreign authoritarians interfering in the lives of Canadians, and promoting a principled vision for Calgary and our country in a disrupted world.”

NDP candidate looks to build party’s presence in Calgary

NDP candidate Gurmit Bhachu called Majumdar “a Harper clone” but doesn’t think his ties to the ex-PM will have an effect on the race.

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Bhachu said he doesn’t expect to prevail but notes the NDP has nearly doubled its share of the vote in the riding over the past two elections.

“My role is to keep chipping away — there are Conservatives moving to the NDP, which is awesome,” said Bhachu, a Grade 4 teacher with the Calgary Board of Education.

He said concerns over affordability and health care play well in the NDP’s favour, given the party’s efforts in pushing the Trudeau government toward wider pharmaceutical and dental coverage.

“Those things would save Canadians a lot of money,” said Bhachu, who ran for the NDP in 2019 and 2021 in nearby Calgary Midnapore.

Liberal candidate ‘putting out a really positive message’

A Conservative victory isn’t a foregone conclusion, said Liberal hopeful Elliot Weinstein.

“We’ve been working really hard, we’ve been putting out a really positive message that’s resonating at the doors,” he said.

He wouldn’t deny the unpopularity in Calgary of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but emphasized he’s running on his own name and background.

“It’s my name on the ballot — I put myself forward as a small-business owner and family person,” said Weinstein.

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His campaign, he said, is trying to appeal to other progressive voters who might normally lean toward the NDP with a pitch that, if elected, he’ll “be stepping right into government,” adding he’s serious about addressing environmental issues.

And Weinstein said he’s heard some rumblings of dissatisfaction with Poilievre among some Conservatives in Calgary Heritage.

People’s Party of Canada candidate looks to ‘hold people accountable’

People’s Party of Canada candidate Kelly Lorencz said he agrees with Williams’ prediction the byelection could have relevance as a showdown among conservatives.

“But we need to find ways to work together and address the concerns Canadians have,” said Lorencz, a military veteran and ex-corrections officer who’s the party’s “western lieutenant.”

He said his campaign in the riding “has been really, really well-received, which has surprised me . . . we need another set of eyes in Ottawa, we’ve got to have people who speak their mind and hold people accountable.”

Inflation and cost-of-living challenges have been at the forefront of constituents’ concerns, he said, as have parental rights.

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“Parents want to have control over their children’s lives in health, education, health care and religion, and keep the government out of that,” said Lorencz, who’s said he’ll hold accountable the CPC just as he would the Liberals.

Party leader Maxime Bernier was scheduled to attend a noontime PPC barbecue in the riding on Saturday to rally his troops ahead of Monday’s byelection.

Also contesting the byelection is the Green Party of Canada’s Ravenmoon Crocker, Larry Heather of the Christian Heritage Party, the Maverick Party’s Dan Irving and unaffiliated candidate Donovan Eckstrom.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn

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Moe visiting Yorkton as Saskatchewan election campaign continues

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to be on the road today as the provincial election campaign continues.

Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.

NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.

On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.

The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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