Night one of a three game road trip for the Montreal Canadiens began in New Jersey. The Canadiens continue to stay in the wild card hunt despite little faith in their game anywhere in the NHL, except their own locker room.
Perhaps that is why they’ve performed so well against top teams this season. This time, another tough foe, New Jersey, was rested and ready.
But again, it was the Canadiens who pulled off the upset 3-2 in Newark.
Wilde Horses
Every game the last six weeks has the same heroes, essentially. The top line continues to provide an exciting look into the future. They’re doing most of the team’s scoring. In the first period, it was an outstanding combination with all three playing their part.
It was Nick Suzuki who came in hard as the first forechecker. He forced an uncomfortable Devils pass to behind the net. It kicked up off the dasher mid-air, about waist height, where Cole Caufield was able to turn his stick over and bat it to the front of the net.
That’s where Juraj Slafkovsky was slashing through bodies untouched to pounce on it for his his sixth goal of the season. What a run it is is for the former first pick overall in 2022. Slafkovsky had his sixth goal of the season, but more than that, it’s 10 points in the last 15 games for Slafkovsky on his second goal in two games.
In the third period, it was Caufield who scored the game winner. Sean Monahan and Caufield were both in the crease to tip a deflection. The final tip was Caufield’s, whose goal total is getting a bit more respectable at 14. It’s impressive how often Caufield is around the crease for a small player.
The top line is also putting together strong analytics. They have fallen from the top 10 when they were at a 61-per cent share of expected goals at 5-on-5. However, at 56 per cent overall, they are still strong, and by far, the best line on the club.
Though there is only one line showing top-six talent, when the club returns to health they may have the workings of something resembling strength. Imagine a healthy Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, joined perhaps by Joshua Roy.
It was as if a light bulb went off in the head of Roy in his third game as an NHL player. His first two he was a bit tentative, but in this one, he was outstanding. Roy pushed hard on the forecheck. He showed outstanding vision. He made strong passes.
In the second period, he one-upped that effort by scoring his first NHL goal. It was a beauty as Roy fed Monahan with a breakout pass. Monahan seemed to wait too long as he carried the puck behind the goal line, but he had the angle to feed Roy streaking in. Roy parked it far side. There aren’t many first goals more beautiful than that one.
Roy looked like he did for two seasons for the Sherbrooke Phoenix, for Canada at the World Juniors, and for the Laval Rocket. It looks like he can repeat this effort. It wasn’t as if the puck was tracking him, but he was tracking the puck. If Roy can carry this game forward in any capacity, he becomes an excellent hope for the future.
The club also has two other forwards in the juniors who are shining in Filip Mesar and Owen Beck. Both are absolutely lighting up the scoreboard in the Ontario Hockey League.
There is so much talk about the lack of a star scorer, and a lack of a second line. It’s fair. However, what never gets spoken of is how deep the Canadiens are going to be from forward one to forward 12. It’s difficult to know where each player’s ceiling will settle out, but there are nine forwards as a group that will scare any team’s defence overall when everyone matures.
In the goal against New Jersey, it was Samuel Montembeault excelling again. Montembeault has one of the best save percentages in hockey in January at .930. Listening to comments around the league, it’s remarkable how difficult it is to gain respect when a goalie gets a late start to his NHL career.
Montembeault is not a back-up goalie just because he was three years ago. He has arrived. He is top five in the league in stolen victories this year. He was top five last year, too. You can’t ask for more than a goalie stealing a game and giving a club two points in the standings they didn’t deserve. Montembeault deserves so much more respect than he gets.
This one was one of his best. Saves on breakaways, on shots from five feet, rebounds controlled — he was simply outstanding. It may be time to change from saying he’s playing great to saying he is great.
Wilde Goats
It’s back-to-back wins over Colorado and New Jersey for the Canadiens this week. It’s Jan. 17, and the Canadiens are only four points out of a wild card spot. With two vital centres, Kirby Dach and Christian Dvorak, out for the season, and a key winger out for four months in Alex Newhook, this was not supposed to be possible.
No goats for these stunning results, and this club that stays in the fight.
Wilde Cards
The optimistic are still entertaining hopes that the Canadiens can be a part of a playoff race in March. The pessimistic have their eyes on a high draft pick and are hoping for losses. It is still too early to definitively say which path the Canadiens are on, but by one measure a high draft pick is more likely.
When half a season remains, it becomes important which teams have difficult opponents in front of them, and which teams still have the bottom dwellers to go. It’s commonly known as ‘strength of schedule’ and it’s not a pretty tale for the local heroes.
The Canadiens have the fourth most difficult schedule in the entire league in front of them with their opponents having a collective record of a .577 winning percentage. Montreal has a lot of teams like Boston, Carolina and Vancouver yet to face. However, they do play well against great teams, so perhaps they can keep it up.
Also not in the Canadiens’ favour is most of the clubs that they would compete with for that playoff spot have easy schedules. For the pessimistic looking for a high draft pick, that is possibly good news to pass on to you.
Every single team but two in the bottom third of the league standings has an easy schedule. Only the Ottawa Senators and Columbus Blue Jackets are in the top half in strength of schedule. Buffalo, San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, Calgary, St. Louis, and Minnesota are among the teams with the easiest schedules.
What this means is for those who want the Canadiens to fall lower in the standings, they have a good chance of this happening considering when Calgary plays Minnesota, someone has to win. When all the bad teams play each other, someone has to take the points.
Imagine a Tuesday night in March — Montreal plays Boston, while Buffalo is playing Ottawa. That will happen a lot the rest of the year, and that means the road to the playoffs is a lot harder than the road to a high draft pick.
Let’s play the games to see what happens. Perhaps that fighting spirit in the Canadiens locker room doesn’t care one bit about strength of schedule. They’ve certainly not laid down for teams like the Rangers, Jets, Stars, Oilers, and the Avalanche this season. It might just continue.
However, there is the math for you.
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