Can Canada have an effective climate action policy without a carbon tax? | Canada News Media
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Can Canada have an effective climate action policy without a carbon tax?

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Eight years ago, Mark Jaccard, a sustainable energy economist at Simon Fraser University, co-authored a paper that warned of the “severe political consequences” that would be faced by a federal government that chose to rely exclusively or primarily on carbon taxes to fuel a climate action strategy.

To achieve federal emissions targets largely on its own, a national carbon tax would need to start at $30 per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions and increase to $200 per tonne by 2030, argued the 2016 paper titled, Is Win-Win Possible?

“It is highly unlikely that our political leaders will implement such a price, given the severe political consequences,” the paper said.

But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government did implement a national carbon tax as a main policy tool. And now, it is facing the political consequences of that choice.

Recent polling suggests that, while British Columbians support climate action policies, that support decreases the more that those policies cost them.

According to Research Co., 70 per cent of British Columbians say they support the federal government’s net-zero ambitions, but that level of support drops to just 49 per cent if average energy costs increase by 20 per cent. Support for federal net-zero policies drops to just 40 per cent if energy costs were to rise by 30 per cent.

The federal carbon tax, which started in 2019 at $20 per tonne of emissions, now sits at a minimum of $80 per tonne. It is scheduled to rise by more than 160 per cent to reach $170 per tonne by 2030.

On April 1, the carbon tax in B.C. jumped from $65 per tonne of carbon dioxide to $80 per tonne, bringing the carbon tax paid on gasoline to about $0.18 per litre.

Now that carbon tax increases are getting costly enough to have their intended effect, which is to deter people from using fossil fuels, inflation-fatigued Canadians are starting to revolt against them.

And as elections loom in B.C. in October, and next year in Ottawa, governing parties will need to re-evaluate carbon taxes or risk losing to politicians who are vowing to scrap them.

Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the federal carbon tax a main election promise, and in B.C., John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of BC, has likewise pledged to cancel B.C.’s carbon tax.

Kevin Falcon, meanwhile, said a BC United government would eliminate the provincial motor fuel tax on gasoline, and exempt home-heating fuels (natural gas and heating oil) from the carbon tax.

“In a democratic system like Canada, politicians can’t get too far ahead of their voters on issues,” said Barry Penner, chair of the Energy Futures Initiative, a new B.C. energy policy think-tank. “And if the voters decide that various forms of climate action are too expensive or not working properly, it poses a real threat that climate action policies will be unwound.”

Penner served as B.C.’s environment minister when the Gordon Campbell BC Liberal government brought in B.C.’s climate action plan, which included a historic, economy-wide, revenue-neutral carbon tax. It was originally set to rise by $5 per tonne until it hit $30 in 2012.

Today, B.C.’s carbon tax is accompanied by other climate-focused policies that carry their own costs—like the current B.C. government’s legislated zero-emissions vehicle mandate, which will require auto dealers to have electric or hydrogen fuel-cell cars and trucks account for 90 per cent of total light-duty vehicle sales by 2030, and 100 per cent by 2035.

An effective carbon tax should not require other “heavy-handed” policies, Penner said.

“If you were standing behind the carbon tax as a market mechanism, you would think that consumers will make that decision on their own without the heavy hand of government restricting their choices,” Penner said.

“The government’s now doing both—they’re ratcheting up the carbon tax and limiting your choice and prescribing what technology you must choose. I think, taken together, that helps contribute to a backlash from people who don’t like the government telling them what to do.

“I think governments have to be willing to adjust their timelines and possibly their policies because public support for climate action waxes and wanes.”

In an open letter to the federal government, hundreds of Canadian economists and academics defended Canada’s carbon tax and urged the Trudeau government to stick to its guns. The letter counters the argument that carbon taxes have not been effective in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

“Since the federal carbon pricing took effect in 2019, Canada’s GHG emissions have fallen by almost eight per cent, although other policies were at work,” the letter states. Emissions must fall by between 32 per cent and 37 per cent by 2030.

The letter points to a Canadian Climate Institute (CIC) study that shows federal and provincial carbon pricing is expected to account for nearly half of Canada’s emissions reductions. Interestingly, though, most of the heavy lifting comes from industrial carbon pricing for heavy industry, and not from consumer carbon taxes on fuels.

Should the carbon tax be axed in Canada, it would still be possible to have effective climate action policies, Jaccard said, although he added that politicians vowing to “axe the tax” need to state what other policies they would implement.

Apart from saying that he would support nuclear power and carbon capture and storage, Poilievre hasn’t spelled out what other climate action policies a Conservative government might maintain or implement.

“If a politician promises to kill carbon taxes but won’t tell you what they’ll do instead, you should assume they are not climate-sincere,” Jaccard told BIV. “For example, innovation does not replace carbon pricing. Innovation is an outcome of policy, not a policy.”

When B.C. first introduced a carbon tax in 2008, it was revenue neutral, but revenue neutrality was eventually abandoned. Penner said he thinks there might be more support for carbon taxes if people saw other taxes—such as income taxes—go down by levels commensurate with carbon tax increases.

“I think it was a strategic error to diverge from revenue neutrality,” Jaccard said.

Ken Peacock, chief economist at the Business Council of British Columbia (BCBC), agrees.

“Definitely part of the problem is that they abandoned revenue neutrality,” he said. “If they were truly interested in reducing emissions, while continuing to foster investment and make business viable, they would provide some offsetting tax relief.”

It is worth noting that, if governments decide to rethink some of their climate action policies, one option might be to at least maintain carbon pricing for industry—the so-called large-emitter trading system. Alberta has had a variation of this in place since 2007. In B.C., it’s called an output-based pricing system.

In a recent paper, the CCI wrote that, of all the major climate action tools adopted by the federal government, large-emitter trading systems are the single most effective in terms of avoiding GHG emissions.

By 2030, the large-emitter trading system would account for 23 per cent to 39 per cent of avoided emissions from all federal policies implemented to date, the CCI report estimates. That compares to just eight per cent to nine per cent for the “fuel charge” paid by consumers purchasing gasoline and diesel.

The second-largest emissions reduction would come from an emissions cap on oil and gas production. Methane reduction regulations would account for the third-largest reduction.

“We know that the current package is working, and of the current package, large-emitter trading systems are by far and away the single most impactful policy,” said Ross Linden-Fraser, senior researcher for CCI.

“That makes that policy really important. If governments want to change the policies they are relying on, they’re going to need to come up with alternatives that fill any gap created by missing policies.”

Jaccard’s paper eight years ago suggested that Canada could implement effective climate action policies without having to rely on carbon taxes as a policy cornerstone.

“We must have at least one of these compulsory policies to achieve emissions effectiveness. But it does not have to be carbon pricing,” the paper argued.

Examples of compulsory federal policies include apartial zero-emission vehicle standard, a low-carbon fuel standard and sector-specific performance standards for industry that set declining percentage emissions intensities.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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