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Can humanity’s new giant leap into space succeed?

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Nasa’s Space Launch System (SLS) Moon rocket lifts off for the uncrewed Artemis I mission

There is a new order emerging in space – a race between America and China. But with the demands of space exploration, even these great superpowers won’t be able to do it alone.

Hugely technically challenging and costly goals have been touted, not least the aim of people living and working on other worlds, possibly within ten years – but in a divided world where international good will is scarce, are they realistic?

Nasa’s return to the Moon has begun with its Artemis programme. The first of three missions has been successfully launched. This uncrewed flight tested that the rockets and technology worked. The second mission will take humans further in space than they have ever gone before and the third launch will put astronauts on the Moon for a week, where they will carry out experiments. The long-term goal is to use the Moon as a jumping off point to get to Mars.

But the programme is estimated to cost $93bn (£76bn), a heavy price tag for the American taxpayer, who is already feeling the economic squeeze.

In a report to Congress last year, the US Auditor General’s office warned of an “unrealistic development schedule” and likely overruns, adding that Nasa needed to make cost estimates “more reliable and transparent”.

Yet although Nasa will get less overall funding than it asked for in 2023, Congress, at the moment, still supports its human space exploration ventures.

China has achieved its own fully operational space station, Tiangong, in orbit on schedule. The Chinese space programme has launched probes to the Moon and Mars. It plans to establish an unmanned research station on the Moon by 2025 and then land astronauts on its surface by 2030.

Pallab Ghosh and Kate Stephens look at the rapid expansion in space exploration which will lead to people living and working on other worlds.

Putting an astronaut on the Moon has been done before but the next step, to Mars, is much more difficult. It is 250 times further away than the Moon and there is no spacecraft currently capable of sending humans to the red planet.

Even if scientists can find a safe way to launch a fuel-heavy rocket and land it on a planet with such a thin atmosphere, there is the further challenge of returning the astronauts safely home after months in space.

Yuri Gagarin of the Soviet Union was the first man into space

Historically superpowers have jostled for supremacy above the Earth. America and Russia vied for dominance in the 1950s and 1960s. The Russians put the first man in orbit. The Americans landed a man and planted their flag on the Moon a few years later.

In the 1970s a golden era of cooperation was forged culminating in the construction of the International Space Station (ISS), which began in 1998.

Along with 13 other partner nations, the two superpowers built what is now the largest structure in space. It is not owned by any one nation, and each depends on the other to operate.

A US astronaut and Soviet cosmonaut shake hands in orbit, paving the way for a golden age of cooperation in space between the two superpowers

It was a symbol of what humanity could achieve if nations put aside their differences and worked together.

But the reality was somewhat different. Notably America prevented China from becoming a partner in the ISS, so the Chinese went their own way.

More recently, within weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, nations stopped working with Russia. Two joint Moon missions between the European Space Agency (ESA) and Russia have been cancelled, as has a joint Mars Rover project to search for signs of life on the red planet.

The international space station is the largest structure in space, built by 15 nations working in partnership

Yet scratch the surface and collaboration continues on the ISS, where Western countries have to work with Russia to maintain it in orbit. Americans and Europeans even still train in the centre of Moscow at Russia’s Space HQ, Star City.

But what happens once the ISS comes to the end of its lifetime in 2030?

Juliana Suess, a space policy analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London says Russia has much less to offer partner nations than it once did because its technology is outdated. She raises the possibility that the first nation into space could be the first one out.

“If the Russians haven’t figured out an alternative by the time the ISS is decommissioned or develops its own space station, which given the current circumstances and sanctions is quite unlikely, it might not have any human spaceflight,” she says.

Russia’s plight comes at a time when China’s space programme is advancing rapidly. In the last ten years it has launched more than 200 rockets, even though America’s spending on space still makes China’s look small.

China is mindful that partnerships offer technical know-how and money. It has invited other nations prohibited from access to the ISS to join them and has made a call for proposals for scientific experiments.

China’s orbiting space station now has a crew and is available to all nations for scientific experiments

Seventy-two countries now have their own space programmes because they can’t afford to be left behind in what has become a new space race.

The billionaire spacefarers

Space is a vital part of our everyday lives. We depend on satellites for weather forecasts, communications, bank transitions, not to mention valuable surveillance tools for nation states. And it’s getting busy out there. In 2021 about 5,000 satellites were launched. Going back 20 years, about 800 were launched annually.

Space is an expensive and technically difficult business. No one country can do it alone. New partnerships are being forged, notably with the new brash billionaires on the block.

Elon Musk’s company, SpaceX, is already taking passengers into orbit. The billionaire entrepreneur is bringing down costs with a reusable rocket. Not to be outdone, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos wants to build a commercial orbiting station, called Orbital Reef.

Helen Sharman, who was the UK’s first astronaut, on a mission to the Soviet Space Station Mir in 1991, believes that current international rivalries could be put in the shade by the pragmatism of the private sector.

“It really is going to be commercialisation that brings companies together worldwide,” she told the BBC. “We don’t care where they are registered, what matters is what they do for the benefit of the world.”

The prospect of financial gain and scientific discovery drives collaboration. Private companies may help to bring a new cooperation in space but they have to obey the laws of their home country. When nations imposed sanctions on Russia in 2022 firms were obliged to withdraw from contracts with Russia.

Dr Josef Aschbacher, who is head of the European Space Agency, is determined to keep Europe in the new space race. He has recently had a £2bn ($2.4bn) increase in funding, despite the financial squeeze facing governments.

“Space is one of those sectors which is expanding very fast and much faster now than in the last few decades. We cannot lose out,” he told the BBC. “We really need to participate strongly in this sector because I want to create new business opportunities for companies in our member states to participate in.”

Outposts on the Moon within a decade are a realistic possiibility

It will be nations that lead space exploration of the future. But the challenges will require them coming together as a single group or “bloc” of countries to share information and to compete with other blocs. The European Space Agency has been doing this successfully for years.

New laws for space

But what is potentially going to hold back the next big push to other worlds is the set of international laws governing space. The marvellously named “Outer Space Treaty” has not been updated since it was signed in 1967, when 31 nations, including the US and the Soviet Union, pledged not to have nuclear weapons in space.

According to Juliana Suess of the Royal United Services Institute, it is not fit for purpose.

“It doesn’t talk about companies; it doesn’t talk about billionaires,” she said. “Space is entirely different to what it was like in 1967.”

This was the first colour image of the Earth people had ever seen, sent back from one of America’s first crewed missions to the Moon

New rules to regulate the commercial exploitation of the Moon, Mars and beyond were introduced by the UN in 1979 but the US, China and Russia have all refused to sign it.

ESA’s Josef Aschbacher believes the new space race will be hampered until a new outer space treaty is hammered out.

“In space we are using the same orbits for satellites, using the same Moon surface for China, the US, Europe,” he said. “We need a way to work together to establish rules of engagement and establish rules of how we work there.”

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Here’s how Helene and other storms dumped a whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain on the South

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More than 40 trillion gallons of rain drenched the Southeast United States in the last week from Hurricane Helene and a run-of-the-mill rainstorm that sloshed in ahead of it — an unheard of amount of water that has stunned experts.

That’s enough to fill the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium 51,000 times, or Lake Tahoe just once. If it was concentrated just on the state of North Carolina that much water would be 3.5 feet deep (more than 1 meter). It’s enough to fill more than 60 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

“That’s an astronomical amount of precipitation,” said Ed Clark, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. “I have not seen something in my 25 years of working at the weather service that is this geographically large of an extent and the sheer volume of water that fell from the sky.”

The flood damage from the rain is apocalyptic, meteorologists said. More than 100 people are dead, according to officials.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former NOAA chief scientist, calculated the amount of rain, using precipitation measurements made in 2.5-mile-by-2.5 mile grids as measured by satellites and ground observations. He came up with 40 trillion gallons through Sunday for the eastern United States, with 20 trillion gallons of that hitting just Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida from Hurricane Helene.

Clark did the calculations independently and said the 40 trillion gallon figure (151 trillion liters) is about right and, if anything, conservative. Maue said maybe 1 to 2 trillion more gallons of rain had fallen, much if it in Virginia, since his calculations.

Clark, who spends much of his work on issues of shrinking western water supplies, said to put the amount of rain in perspective, it’s more than twice the combined amount of water stored by two key Colorado River basin reservoirs: Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Several meteorologists said this was a combination of two, maybe three storm systems. Before Helene struck, rain had fallen heavily for days because a low pressure system had “cut off” from the jet stream — which moves weather systems along west to east — and stalled over the Southeast. That funneled plenty of warm water from the Gulf of Mexico. And a storm that fell just short of named status parked along North Carolina’s Atlantic coast, dumping as much as 20 inches of rain, said North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello.

Then add Helene, one of the largest storms in the last couple decades and one that held plenty of rain because it was young and moved fast before it hit the Appalachians, said University of Albany hurricane expert Kristen Corbosiero.

“It was not just a perfect storm, but it was a combination of multiple storms that that led to the enormous amount of rain,” Maue said. “That collected at high elevation, we’re talking 3,000 to 6000 feet. And when you drop trillions of gallons on a mountain, that has to go down.”

The fact that these storms hit the mountains made everything worse, and not just because of runoff. The interaction between the mountains and the storm systems wrings more moisture out of the air, Clark, Maue and Corbosiero said.

North Carolina weather officials said their top measurement total was 31.33 inches in the tiny town of Busick. Mount Mitchell also got more than 2 feet of rainfall.

Before 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, “I said to our colleagues, you know, I never thought in my career that we would measure rainfall in feet,” Clark said. “And after Harvey, Florence, the more isolated events in eastern Kentucky, portions of South Dakota. We’re seeing events year in and year out where we are measuring rainfall in feet.”

Storms are getting wetter as the climate change s, said Corbosiero and Dello. A basic law of physics says the air holds nearly 4% more moisture for every degree Fahrenheit warmer (7% for every degree Celsius) and the world has warmed more than 2 degrees (1.2 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.

Corbosiero said meteorologists are vigorously debating how much of Helene is due to worsening climate change and how much is random.

For Dello, the “fingerprints of climate change” were clear.

“We’ve seen tropical storm impacts in western North Carolina. But these storms are wetter and these storms are warmer. And there would have been a time when a tropical storm would have been heading toward North Carolina and would have caused some rain and some damage, but not apocalyptic destruction. ”

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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‘Big Sam’: Paleontologists unearth giant skull of Pachyrhinosaurus in Alberta

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It’s a dinosaur that roamed Alberta’s badlands more than 70 million years ago, sporting a big, bumpy, bony head the size of a baby elephant.

On Wednesday, paleontologists near Grande Prairie pulled its 272-kilogram skull from the ground.

They call it “Big Sam.”

The adult Pachyrhinosaurus is the second plant-eating dinosaur to be unearthed from a dense bonebed belonging to a herd that died together on the edge of a valley that now sits 450 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.

It didn’t die alone.

“We have hundreds of juvenile bones in the bonebed, so we know that there are many babies and some adults among all of the big adults,” Emily Bamforth, a paleontologist with the nearby Philip J. Currie Dinosaur Museum, said in an interview on the way to the dig site.

She described the horned Pachyrhinosaurus as “the smaller, older cousin of the triceratops.”

“This species of dinosaur is endemic to the Grand Prairie area, so it’s found here and nowhere else in the world. They are … kind of about the size of an Indian elephant and a rhino,” she added.

The head alone, she said, is about the size of a baby elephant.

The discovery was a long time coming.

The bonebed was first discovered by a high school teacher out for a walk about 50 years ago. It took the teacher a decade to get anyone from southern Alberta to come to take a look.

“At the time, sort of in the ’70s and ’80s, paleontology in northern Alberta was virtually unknown,” said Bamforth.

When paleontogists eventually got to the site, Bamforth said, they learned “it’s actually one of the densest dinosaur bonebeds in North America.”

“It contains about 100 to 300 bones per square metre,” she said.

Paleontologists have been at the site sporadically ever since, combing through bones belonging to turtles, dinosaurs and lizards. Sixteen years ago, they discovered a large skull of an approximately 30-year-old Pachyrhinosaurus, which is now at the museum.

About a year ago, they found the second adult: Big Sam.

Bamforth said both dinosaurs are believed to have been the elders in the herd.

“Their distinguishing feature is that, instead of having a horn on their nose like a triceratops, they had this big, bony bump called a boss. And they have big, bony bumps over their eyes as well,” she said.

“It makes them look a little strange. It’s the one dinosaur that if you find it, it’s the only possible thing it can be.”

The genders of the two adults are unknown.

Bamforth said the extraction was difficult because Big Sam was intertwined in a cluster of about 300 other bones.

The skull was found upside down, “as if the animal was lying on its back,” but was well preserved, she said.

She said the excavation process involved putting plaster on the skull and wooden planks around if for stability. From there, it was lifted out — very carefully — with a crane, and was to be shipped on a trolley to the museum for study.

“I have extracted skulls in the past. This is probably the biggest one I’ve ever done though,” said Bamforth.

“It’s pretty exciting.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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