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Can The Fed And OPEC Really Rescue Oil Markets? | OilPrice.com

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham is an independent journalist, covering oil and gas, energy and environmental policy, and international politics. He is based in Portland, Oregon. 

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The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 50 basis points on Tuesday, springing into action as the global economy has suddenly slammed on the brakes.

“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” the U.S. Federal Reserve said in a statement. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity.”

The central bank cut the federal funds rate to between 1 and 1.25 percent, lowering its target by a half percentage point. The bank also said that it would act again if the situation deteriorated.

The move could ease the path for more central banks around the world to loosen monetary policy, likely setting off a wave of rate cuts.

While the Fed said that the “fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” that message is slightly undercut by the fact that the action was the first time since the global financial crisis in 2008 that the bank cut rates by 50 basis points. Also, it comes two weeks before the committee was set to meet. Obviously, the Fed believed the situation couldn’t wait until then.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted as much in a press conference, saying that the central bank “judged that the risks to the U.S. outlook have changed materially.”

However, monetary policy does not cure the coronavirus. “We do recognize a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain. We get that,” Powell said. “But we do believe that our action will provide a meaningful boost to the economy. More specifically, it will support accommodative financial conditions and avoid a tightening of financial conditions which can weigh on activity and will help boost household and business confidence.” Related: What’s Next For Omani Oil?

President Trump wasn’t satisfied, calling for “More easing and cutting!” JPMorgan Chase said that there is a 50 percent chance that the Fed cuts rates to zero later this year.

The immediate reaction to the Fed’s move was positive. Financial markets rallied and oil prices rose by more than 1 percent during midday trading. But markets turned negative as Tuesday wore on.

Either way, the spread of the virus continues. It has hit lawmakers in the Iranian parliament. It is spreading in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and new cases have popped up in New York. India has reported five cases, as of Monday. Japan suggested that the Tokyo Olympics might be delayed.

In short, the spread of the virus will continue, inflicting on uncertain toll on the global economy.

For oil demand, the forecasts continue to be revised down by analysts. Earlier this year, the IEA said that oil demand would increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2020. By February, the IEA cut that figure to 0.825 mb/d.

Others are more pessimistic and more downward revisions are inevitable. Oil consultancy FGE said on March 3 that it expects oil demand to fall by 220,000 bpd.

It’s worth dwelling on that for a second. The firm is not merely cutting its growth forecast; it’s saying global oil consumption will actually shrink in 2020 by 220,000 bpd. Related: Putin Hints Russia May Participate In Newest Round Of OPEC Cuts

If that forecast is close to the mark, it would be catastrophic for oil producers. The market was already facing a potential oversupply situation heading into 2020 – which is why OPEC+ cut deeper in December – before the coronavirus hit. Erasing 1.2 mb/d or more of expected oil demand for the full year would leave a mess for OPEC+ and for U.S. shale producers.

The OPEC+ coalition is set to gather in Vienna this week, where they may agree to an additional production cut of 1 mb/d. As the FT notes, cash-strapped U.S. shale drillers are “praying” for the cartel to cut deeper.

OPEC actually has the chance to deal a knock-out blow to embattled shale drillers, but the fiscal crunch on their own budgets is apparently too much to bear. “If I were in their position I wouldn’t be cutting more,” Doug King, London-based chairman of RCMA Capital’s Merchant Commodity Fund, told the FT. “I’d sit it out and watch what happens.”

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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