I have been wondering lately what the ramifications of the past two years will be. I enjoy thinking about things like this; its especially fun when there is no consensus, and no one really has much of a clue about the future. This has been even more true than usual lately.
I don’t pretend to have answers, but I do have questions that raise interesting scenarios. The one I have been having the most fun with lately: How will residential real estate and migration of human capital (employees) alter the way people work, get hired, and live?
Just imaging different outcomes of what might happen can occasionally lead to insights. It’s a useful exercise, especially when we are in a period of great flux.
Consider the lessons learned during the lockdown period that began in March 2020 and sporadically ended over the next 18 months.
– Knowledge workers were very productive during WFH; – Good Technology is essential; – Corporate Culture can be challenging to maintain from a distance; – Residential Real Estate is driven by multiple factors which rise and fall in importance at different times; – Wages are relative to the local cost of living; – Many firms have begun hiring in geographies outside of where their offices are physically located; – We are still feeling the fallout of the Great Financial Crisis in residential real estate.
My frame of reference is my own circumstances.
Pre-pandemic, I was in the office four days a week but working from home on Fridays.1 Today I’m in the office once or twice a week (my train is still not on a normal schedule). Friends and colleagues’ work experience is across the spectrum: Some firms are mandating at least four days a week in the office (with a mandatory “Everybody comes in Wednesday!”); some are still full remote, while others are a hybrid. Once things get back to the way it was, I’ll be in the office two or three days a week.
Assuming it does return to normal. And therein lay the rub.
During the lockdown, we hired a number of staffers from all over the country. Some are nowhere near our HQ or remote offices. You live in a high-wage metropolitan region, but your staffers are not coming into the office, why not hire from less expensive parts of the country?
Perhaps this is merely a blip. Maybe once this is over and people are hungry for social interactions and human contact the world returns to the way it was circa 2019. If that’s the case then there are no serious issues with residential real estate or location of labor and migration.
But I have my doubts that this is going to be the outcome. It is simply too cost-efficient to source workers from less expensive locales. Note this began in the United States decades ago, with customer service (phone) workers who could be anywhere (including overseas).
Imagine this scenario:
Numerous companies, ranging from startups to smaller established firms to mid-sized companies to even larger publicly traded corporations, adopt this interstate labor arbitrage approach to hiring. Over time, the people who have to be physically in their offices are the most senior in the organizational chart. Much of the rest of that org chart was working in the same building but either commuting much longer or living in much smaller spaces or both.
Will that continue?
Consider the concentric rings of bedroom communities that surround metropolitan centers like Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, etc. Commute times of 30, 60, 90, 120 minutes used to include a fairly linear increase in RRE costs per square foot contingent on the shorter the commuting distance was.
What happens to this model?
What happens to the supply of office space – do we have a massive urban glut?
What does that do to residential real estate in urban centers, and their surrounding bedroom communities?
Will we continue to have pricey shortages of real estate in cities?
Where will entry-level position workers find employment – in the more expensive urban areas or the less expensive suburban and rural areas? (Consider how rent-poor many of these workers were pre-pandemic).
How significant are these changes going to be? Is this a small trim adjustment, or is this a substantially remaking of the employment/real estate model of the entire 75-year post-war period?
I don’t have the answers to these questions, but I have been wrestling with how these may resolve. The impact is likely to be substantial regardless of which direction this goes…
1. Our house is less than an hour commute to the city; I could have lived 30 minutes closer in a smaller home on less land for the same purchase price, or 30 to 60 minutes further out on even more land for less money.
If I had known I was only going in 2 days a week, how might that have impacted our thinking on location?
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
