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Canada could see ‘grotesque’ spike in coronavirus cases after holidays: expert – Global News

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Public health officials and infectious disease experts are urging Canadians to limit their contacts over the holidays to avoid a potentially devastating spike in the number of cases of the novel coronavirus which continues to spread rapidly across the country.

Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, said Canadians should expect to see a “grotesque” spike in the number of COVID-19 infections after the holidays “because of family visiting.”

“This will tend to be in homes, in close quarters, with shared air, for prolonged periods, without masks, and involving mixing people from different households,” Furness wrote in an email to Global News.

Furness said there will be a lot of “close physical contact.”

“These are all risk factors for COVID,” he said. “And because COVID is already so prevalent in the community — far more so than say, at Thanksgiving which is a much smaller holiday — there will be a significant increase.”

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What happened after Thanksgiving?

Over the summer, it appeared Canada had flattened the curve of the pandemic. However, by early fall, the number of new infections began to rise steadily again.

By Sept. 23, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that many areas of the country were already experiencing the second wave of the pandemic.

On Oct. 12 — Thanksgiving — Canada had seen a total of 184,645 confirmed cases of the virus.

In the 14 days after the holiday, more than 35,000 new cases were detected, reaching 219,982 infections by Oct. 26.

Since Thanksgiving, Canada has reported over 343,000 new cases of the novel coronavirus.

Manitoba was hit especially hard by the post-Thanksgiving COVID-19 spike.

Earlier this month, the province’s chief public health officer, Dr. Brent Roussin, said the death rate in Manitoba increased by more than nine times between Thanksgiving and Dec. 11.

Since the pandemic began, Manitoba has seen 605 deaths related to COVID-19. Of those fatalities, 571 have occurred since Thanksgiving.

Thousands of new cases reported daily

As cases continue to rise across the country, experts have urged Canadians to heed public health measures by avoiding social gatherings and limiting their contacts over the holidays.

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On Wednesday, just two days before Christmas, Canada reported 6,846 new cases of the virus, and health officials said another 172 people had died after falling ill.

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Over the past seven days, an average of 6,629 cases have been reported daily across the country.

Read more:
Don’t break the rules during Christmas, pleads B.C. doctor working in COVID-19 ward

Furness said he worries that people who are infected with the virus over the next several days “will not have a hospital bed in January when they need it.”

By Wednesday, 3,625 people across the country were hospitalized due to the virus, jumping by nearly 200 since Sunday. 

Earlier this month, the total number of hospitalizations in Canada surpassed the record set during the first wave of the pandemic in May, when 3,056 people were in hospital.

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In mid-August the number of hospitalizations dropped and remained in the 200s, before steadily increasing again in the middle of September.

How many cases could Canada see after the holidays?

Furness said it is “very hard to predict” just how big of a spike Canada could see after the holidays, because we don’t know exactly how much mixing is going on.

“But a doubling in daily cases seems possible to me,” he wrote. “I’d like to be wrong about that, and I hope I am.”






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Coronavirus: Toronto mayor asks city to honour front-line workers on Christmas eve


Coronavirus: Toronto mayor asks city to honour front-line workers on Christmas eve

In a previous interview with Global News, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases faculty member at the University of Toronto, said everyone in Canada should be limiting their contacts as much as possible.

“I think that’s a very safe rule because it’s easy to understand: If you don’t live under that roof, don’t go into that house,” he said. “It’s a very simple message to understand.”

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Modelling released by the Public Health Agency of Canada earlier this month suggests if the country continues on its current trajectory, it could see between 12,000 to 14,000 new cases daily by January.

In a series of tweets on Tuesday, Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, said it is a “perilous time” for the country.

“Canada remains on a trajectory for even stronger resurgence of the next two months and our actions to #SlowtheSpread remain crucial,” she wrote.

Tam said as infection rates remain “very high” in several areas of the country, Canadians “must celebrate holidays differently this year and carry on with our public health practices through the coming weeks and months.”

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Speaking during a press conference on Wednesday, Trudeau urged Canadians to “do the right thing” and refrain from holding large gatherings over the holidays.

“If people don’t follow public health rules now, we could be in for an even more difficult winter than we’re already going to have,” he said.

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Instead of gathering in person, the prime minister said Canadians should take advantage of the “miracles of technology.”

“Reach out over Zoom, reach out over the phone to make sure people know we’re thinking of them,” he said. “And part of our love for them and thinking of them is not showing up to give them a hug this Christmas.”

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-With files from Global News’ Rachael D’Amore and Emerald Bensadoun

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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