Canada Doubled Down On Real Estate In 2005. Now It’s The Biggest Bubble The G7 Has Ever Seen, and It’s Getting Bigger - Better Dwelling | Canada News Media
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Canada Doubled Down On Real Estate In 2005. Now It’s The Biggest Bubble The G7 Has Ever Seen, and It’s Getting Bigger – Better Dwelling

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Canadians know real estate prices have grown quickly, but most have no idea how it compares to the world. US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (US Fed) data shows how home prices evolved since the Financial Crisis. While most countries scrambled to balance home prices with local economic growth, Canada doubled down on housing. The result is Canadian real estate prices have grown at nearly triple the pace of any G7 country, since 2005.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Increased Over 3% Last Year

Canadian real estate prices have seen growth slow recently, but not much. Canadian prices at the national level have increased 3.39% in Q1 2020, in real terms when compared to a year ago. To contrast, the US follows with a lower 3.29% over the same period. Canada is currently right in the middle of the G7, with Germany (+4.9%) and France (+3.9%) being the two markets above. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, until you realize this is very high growth after the run Canadian prices have made.

G7 Real Estate Prices – 12 Month Change

The inflation adjuted 12 month change in G7 real estate prices for Q1 2020.

Source: US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Better Dwelling.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Grew At Nearly 3x The Rate of The Next G7 Country

Since the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), Canada leaned on the housing economy, and it shows. Canadian home prices increased a whopping 88.0% from 2005 to 2020. The next closest G7 country is Germany, with prices having increased 32.3% over the same period. Yes, that’s nearly just a third. For context, US real estate prices have only increased 3.0% over the same period.

G7 Real Estate Price Index

An inflation adjusted index of G7 real estate prices.

Source: US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Better Dwelling.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Increased Rapidly Before 2015

Most of the price growth narrative starts around 2015, but we can see the horse already left the barn at that point. Canadian real estate prices increased 50.5% from 2005 to 2015. The next closest G7 country was France, which saw price growth increase only 4.8% over the same period – less than one-tenth. To contrast, US real estate prices were down 15.1% at the time. Rather than accept a market inefficiency against labour, Canada doubled down on credit expansion.

G7 Real Estate Price Change From 2005 to 2015

The inflation adjusted percent change in real estate prices across G7 countries from 2005 to 2015.

Source: US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Better Dwelling.

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Canada has leaned on non-productive investment, and it shows. The rate of residential investment to GDP more than doubled from 2000 to 2020. Last year, real estate transactions were generating almost half of all GDP growth. This isn’t just a Toronto and Vancouver thing either. The national index outpaces growth for every other G7 country, and is more than double the next one. With the government currently dedicating an unusual amount of resources to driving home prices during this recession, they’re shooting to go all-in or for failure.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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