The “crises” rocking national and international affairs are likely to get worse over the next few years and could have a significant effect on the federal government and Canada’s federal police force, says an internal report prepared for the RCMP.
“The global community has experienced a series of crises, with COVID-19, supply-chain issues, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine all sending shockwaves throughout the world,” says the report, entitled Whole of Government Five Year Trends for Canada.
“The situation will probably deteriorate further in the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and a global recession add their weight to the ongoing crises.”
The report was prepared by the RCMP’s three-member Strategic Foresight and Methodology Team, a special section set up in February 2022. The report was shared with management at the RCMP’s federal policing section, RCMP spokesperson Robin Percival said in response to questions from CBC News.
The report was obtained through access to information law by Matt Malone, an assistant law professor at Thompson Rivers University, who shared it with CBC News.
The heavily redacted nine-page report looks at shifts “in the domestic and international environments that could have a significant effect on the Canadian government and the RCMP.” Percival said it was written between March and December of 2022 “for situational awareness and to inform decision making” over the five years following the report’s completion. It has not been updated since then.
The report says it is based on “open source, foresight material, horizon scans and environment scans from law enforcement agencies, government agencies and private entities, both domestic and international.”
The report paints a bleak picture of what the RCMP — and Canada — could have to face over the next several years.
“The geopolitical, economic, social, technological and environmental shifts presented here are complex and continue to evolve,” the report warns. “They can disrupt or redefine law enforcement work and operations in unexpected ways. Both minor and major shifts have the potential to cause multi-faceted disruptive change across the organization.”
A car sits in the backyard of a house after a major spring flood hit the region on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 in Baie-Saint-Paul Que. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)
Climate change will have a significant impact, the report predicted.
“Over the course of the next five years, environmental scientists expect that increasingly violent and even concurrent storms, worsening drought, floods and persistent heat waves all over the globe will reduce the global output of a variety of commodities,” says the report.
“Law enforcement should anticipate that these destructive weather patterns will affect all facets of government, including damage to critical infrastructure, increasing pressure to cede Arctic territory, and more.”
The report predicts that more frequent extreme weather events could have “a disproportionately adverse effect on Indigenous communities because many of them are located in areas that are warming faster and the weather events could take place at the same time as other major crises that require RCMP resources.
“Emergency management planning should be considered by law enforcement decision makers to ensure continued levels of service delivery. Capacity building through the attraction and retention of qualified staff remains a challenge to law enforcement.”
Sliding living standards and polarization
Political polarization and resentment, coupled with the threat of an economic recession, will also present a challenge, the report predicts.
“The coming period of recession will also accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” says the report.
“For example, many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live. The fallout from this decline in living standards will be exacerbated by the fact that the difference between the extremes of wealth is greater now in developed countries than it has been at any time in several generations.”
WATCH | How could global events disrupt shipments to Canada?
How could global events disrupt shipments to Canada?
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Duration 0:58
Security and defence expert Christian Leuprecht describes how global conflicts could cause serious problems for Canada’s supply chain.
Populists have been capitalizing on a rise in political polarization and conspiracy theories and tailoring their messages to appeal to extremist movements, the report says, adding that authoritarian movements have been on the rise in many liberal-democratic countries.
“Law enforcement should expect continuing social and political polarization fuelled by misinformation campaigns and an increasing mistrust for all democratic institutions,” says the report.
New information technologies, including AI deepfakes, quantum computing and blockchain, could also present challenges, says the report.
“Law enforcement should anticipate that criminals will leverage technological innovations to gain profit and influence,” the report says. “Law enforcement should also continue to contribute to policy change related to the privacy of personal information, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, quantum computing, digital ledger technology and more.”
A sign advocating for support for the homeless is seen through a fenced-in homeless encampment in Victoria Park in Halifax’s downtown on Monday, March 4, 2024. (Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press)
The COVID-19 pandemic may have faded but, in 2022, it continued to have an impact on Canadian society, says the report.
“The damage to the economy and to the social fabric of the nation is ongoing, and there is an established opposition to existing and potential public health measures and other restrictions,” it says, citing a university study indicating there is more than a 10 per cent chance of another pandemic spreading in the near future.
While the report says it covers geopolitical factors, references to geopolitical challenges appear to be among the passages redacted. Two pages of the report are entirely blank, with the exception of a picture of a globe.
Michael Kempa, University of Ottawa associate professor of criminology, welcomed the report and the existence of the special unit, saying the RCMP has been “struggling to meet its federal policing responsibilities.”
“They’ve now got this special body that is sort of scanning major trends and threats to federal policing type issues, presumably with a view to positioning the RCMP to dealing with these types of challenges down the line. So that’s positive.”
Kempa said the report correctly identifies the challenges the RCMP and the government are likely to face.
“The only thing that I would think that they underestimate is the urgency with which the RCMP must prepare … to address these challenges,” he said.
Kempa said the RCMP doesn’t have a lot of time to make necessary changes, such as recruiting people with the skills needed to address these kinds of problems.
“This report underestimates the severity of the challenges,” he said.
A ‘disconnect’ between threat and preparation
Christian Leuprecht, a Queen’s University and Royal Military College professor who specializes in defence and security, said the section of the report on the challenges posed by new information technologies — and the suggestion that law enforcement should “contribute to policy change” in response — stood out for him.
“That’s a highly unusual statement,” said Leuprecht. “This is a hint that clearly there is a sense that the policy framework in this country is not adequately set up for the challenges of everything from safeguarding personal information … artificial intelligence, the connectivity of the Internet of Things … the privacy challenges and others presented by quantum computing and blockchain technology, and the accelerant that has proven for all sorts of criminal activity in this country.”
Leuprecht said the report also points to some threats that are often overlooked, such as problems with global supply chains and the need to improve emergency management planning.
“What we see is some of the disconnect between the strategic threat assessment … and the resources, capacities, capabilities and political will to posture Canada effectively for what is clearly going to be a very difficult future for this country,” he said.
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.
Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.
“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”
The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.
Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.
TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.
That has been easier said than done this season.
Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.
But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.
“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”
The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.
Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.
“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”
While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.
TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”
“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.
While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.
“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”
Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.
Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.
MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.
Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.
Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.
There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.
Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.
Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.
Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.
Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.
The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.
While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.
Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.
“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.
“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.
But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.
“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”
After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024
Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.
Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.
His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.
“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.
“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”
Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.
Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.
However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).
“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.
“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”
It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.
“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”
This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.
“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour
“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”
Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.
He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.
“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”
An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.
Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.
“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”
DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.
KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.
CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.
LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.
EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
