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Canada facing the start of a Delta-driven 4th wave, top doctors warn – Global News

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Canada is likely at the start of a Delta variant-driven fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, federal public health officials warned on Friday.

The news comes on the heels of an upward trend in cases across Canada which, if vaccine uptake doesn’t increase in younger groups, could eventually exceed health-care system capacity, the doctors said.

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Read more:
Will we ever lock down again? Experts say it’s ‘unlikely,’ as pandemic finish line draws near

A long-range epidemic forecast “suggests we are at the start of the Delta-driven fourth wave,” chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam told reporters.

But, she added, “the trajectory will depend on ongoing increase in fully vaccinated coverage and the timing, pace and extent of reopening.”

The Delta variant is continuing to spread across Canada — and fast. Over the month of June alone, cases of the new COVID-19 variant increased five-fold nationwide, making it the dominant variant of concern in the country.


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Ottawa extending multiple COVID-19 subsidies for workers, businesses amid Delta variant spread


Ottawa extending multiple COVID-19 subsidies for workers, businesses amid Delta variant spread

While Tam said the cases are expected to be concentrated “largely in younger unvaccinated people,” the disease will likely spread into “older, unvaccinated populations.”

“Both higher case volumes and older age of cases could ultimately increase severe illness and hospitalization rates,” Tam warned.

This forecast further highlights the importance of taking a cautious approach to relaxing public health measures, Tam said.

Alberta recently plunged headfirst into its reopening, dropping nearly all restrictions on July 1. Other provinces have also followed suit: Saskatchewan abandoned most of its COVID-19 restrictions on July 11, and New Brunswick is set to lift all of its restrictions this weekend.

“International experience with Delta driven waves underscores the need for gradual and cautious lifting of restrictions until fully vaccinated coverage is high across the population,” Tam said.

In the meantime, Tam said governments should keep watching closely for signs of resurgence as they continue pushing people to get their vaccines.

Read more:
Ottawa extending multiple COVID-19 subsidies for workers, businesses amid Delta spread

Canada has seen enthusiastic vaccine uptake, particularly among the older, at-risk groups. Over 89 per cent of seniors aged 70 years or older are now fully vaccinated, and 37 per cent to 46 per cent of teenagers and young adults have their second shot, Tam said.

First dose coverage is even higher, according to Tam. About 70 per cent of teenagers and young adults have their first dose, and 95 per cent of seniors have had their first jabs.

Despite the warning that Canada could be in the early days of the fourth wave, cases also remain low. Case counts across Canada are 93 per cent lower than they were in the peak of the third wave, Tam said, even with the recent uptick. The number of people experiencing severe and critical illness is also still trending downwards.


Click to play video: 'Majority of Canadians worried about lingering COVID-19 threat, according to poll'



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Majority of Canadians worried about lingering COVID-19 threat, according to poll


Majority of Canadians worried about lingering COVID-19 threat, according to poll

This is likely in large part to do the widespread vaccine uptake. Tam said the vaccines are proving to be “highly protective against severe illness.”

“The data show that 85 per cent of hospitalized COVID-19 cases were unvaccinated, with only 0.7 per cent of hospitalized cases occurring in fully vaccinated patients,” she said during the Friday press conference.

Fewer than 480 people have been treated daily in Canada’s hospitals, according to the most recent seven-day averages. On top of that, fewer than 225 of those individuals were being treated in intensive care units, and an average of just eight deaths have been reported daily.

Read more:
Delta COVID-19 variant as contagious as chickenpox, internal CDC report says

However, the pandemic looks a little different among Canada’s unvaccinated population.

“The majority of cases, hospitalizations and fatal outcomes are occurring among unvaccinated people,” Tam said.

Compared to cases among those who have been fully vaccinated, unvaccinated Canadians are three times more likely to be hospitalized if they catch COVID-19. With the Delta variant ripping across the country, it’s more important than ever to try to get your jab, Tam said.

“We need more eligible people vaccinated,” she said.

Roughly 6.3 million Canadians still haven’t had a vaccine.

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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Why Canada's record population growth is helping – and hurting – the economy – CTV News

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Canada has recorded the fastest population growth in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, in 2023, according to a new report from Statistics Canada.

The country has not seen such growth since 1957, when the spike was attributed to the baby boom and an influx of immigrants fleeing Hungary.

The vast majority of Canada’s growth last year was due to immigration, with temporary residents — which includes foreign workers and international students — making up the largest proportion of newcomers.

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“We need people coming to Canada to help with our economy,” says Matti Siemiatycki, a professor of planning at the University of Toronto. “There are many jobs and professions where there are vacancies, and that is having an impact, whether in the healthcare sector or trades and construction sector.”

Siemiatycki adds immigrants also bring “ingenuity… resources… and culture” to Canada.

Newcomers are relied on to help keep pace with Canada’s aging population and declining fertility rates, but the influx also presents a challenge for a country struggling to build the homes and infrastructure needed for immigrants.

“It’s an incredibly large shock for the economic system to absorb because of just the sheer number of people coming into the country in a short period of time,” says Robert Kavcic. a senior economist and director with BMO Capital Markets.

“The reality is population can grow extremely fast, but the supply side of the economy like housing and service infrastructure, think health care and schools, can only catch up at a really gradual pace,” Kavcic says. “So there is a mismatch right now.”

The impact of that mismatch can most acutely be seen in the cost of rent, services and housing.

In December, Kavcic wrote in a note that Canada needs to build 170,000 new housing units every three months to keep up with population growth, noting the industry is struggling to complete 220,000 units in a full year.

To address this, Ottawa has announced plans to cap the number of new temporary residents while also reducing the number of international student visas, a move economists say could offer some relief when it comes to housing and the cost of living.

“The arithmetic on the caps actual works relatively well because it would take us back down to 1 per cent population growth which we have been used to over the last decade and which is more or less absorbable by the economy,” Kavcic says. “The question is whether or not we see policy makers follow through and hit those numbers.”

Economists believe these changes could help ease inflationary pressures and may make a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely, but could also lead to slower GDP growth.

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Canada’s population hits 41M months after breaking 40M threshold – Global News

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Nine months after reaching a population of 40 million, Canada has cracked a new threshold.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s estimated 41 million people now call the country home, according to Statistics Canada’s live population tracker.

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The speed at which Canada’s population is growing was also reflected in new data released Wednesday by the federal agency: between Jan. 1 2023 and Jan. 1 2024, Canada added 1,271,872 inhabitants, a 3.2 per cent growth rate — the highest since 1957.

Most of Canada’s 3.2 per cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration. Without it, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said.


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Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population


From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, Canada’s population increased by 241,494 people (0.6 per cent), the highest rate of growth in a fourth quarter since 1956.

Usha George, a professor at the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement at Toronto Metropolitan University, told Global News in June a booming population can benefit the economy.

“It is not the bodies we are bringing in; these are bodies that fill in the empty spaces in the labour market,” she said.

“They bring a very-high level of skills.”


Click to play video: 'Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan'

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Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan


However, Ottawa has recently sought to ease the flow of temporary immigration in a bid to ease cost-of-living woes.


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Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation.

The next day, BMO economist Robert Kavcic in a note to clients the new limits will have a positive impact on Canada’s rental market and overall housing crisis.

“We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has had an excess demand problem in housing, and this is maybe the clearest example,” Kavcic said.

“Non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800K in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Alberta gains, Ontario loses: A look at Canadian migration in 2023

If Alberta is truly calling, then it appears more Canadians are choosing to answer.

Putting the pun on the provincial government’s attraction campaign aside, Canada’s wild rose country saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, Statistics Canada said in Wednesday’s report.


Click to play video: 'Is Alberta ready for population growth?'

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Is Alberta ready for population growth?


The agency said 55,107 Canadians moved to Alberta last year, which was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data become available in 1972.

“Alberta has been recording gains in population from interprovincial migration since 2022, a reverse of the trend seen from 2016 to 2021, when more people left the province than arrived from other parts of Canada,” Statistics Canada said.

“Approximately 333,000 Canadians moved from one province or territory to another in 2023, the second-highest number recorded since the 1990s and the third straight year that interprovincial migration topped 300,000.”

Meanwhile, British Columbia had 8,624 more residents move out than in in 2023, meaning net interprovincial migration was negative for the first time since 2012, Statistics Canada said.

In general, the largest migration flows for British Columbia and Alberta are with each other, and most of the net loss from British Columbia in 2023 was to Alberta, it added.


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‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population


It also seems that good things may no longer be growing in Ontario; Canada’s most populous province lost 36,197 people to other regions in 2023, the biggest regional loss in 2023, Statistics Canada said.

That followed a loss of 38,816 people in 2022; the only other times a province has lost more than 35,000 people due to migration to other parts of Canada occurred in Quebec in 1977 and 1978.

Alberta aside, net interprovincial migration was also up in Nova Scotia (+6,169 people), New Brunswick (+4,790) and Prince Edward Island (+818), although all three Maritime provinces gained fewer interprovincial migrants in 2023 than in the two previous years, Statistics Canada said.

— with files from Uday Rana and Sean Previl

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