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Canada home prices fall deeper into correction

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Canadian home prices fell for a ninth straight month as sharply rising interest rates prompted both buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market heading into the traditionally slower winter season.

The benchmark price for a home fell 1.4 per cent on a seasonally-adjusted basis to $744,000 in November, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Thursday. That brings the cumulative price drop from February’s peak to 11.5 per cent.

The number of transactions nationwide fell 3.3 per cent, outpacing the decline in new listings, which were down 1.3 per cent from the month before, according to the data.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark overnight rate to 4.25 per cent this year from 0.25 per cent in March, a rapid rise in borrowing costs that has left many prospective buyers priced out of the market. With many sellers also waiting for a more opportune time to list, the market seems to be going into a deep freeze during Canada’s winter months.

Still, supply remains tight. The number of new listings in November was the second lowest for that month in 17 years. The number of months of inventory up for sale nationwide, meanwhile, stood at 4.2, a full month below its long-term average.

Economists are now predicting Canada will enter a shallow recession the first half of next year, even as the central bank says rates may need to rise even further to tame inflation. So whether more buyers or sellers emerge as the weather warms into the spring selling season will likely depend on how the economy develops between now and then.

“November’s housing data from across Canada came in as expected — still pretty quiet — and that is unlikely to improve this winter with the Bank of Canada raising rates again last week,” Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist, said in a press release accompanying the data. “It will be interesting to see what buyers do when listings start to come out in big numbers in the spring.”

In a separate release Thursday, the Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said builders started work on an annualized 264,159 units in November. Total housing starts remain elevated compared to historical levels, pushed higher by multi-family construction.

With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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