Canada staged a large-scale diplomatic deployment this week in preparation for a U.S. presidential election of more consequence than usual.
More than a dozen Canadian diplomats posted in various U.S. cities came to Washington to meet with scores of American lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Looming over their visit was the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. In particular, there’s one Trump policy they’re watching warily this year.
The former president has promised a worldwide tariff on imported goods if he wins. This would be stricter than any trade policy from his first term.
Trump has offered minimal details about the policy in his campaign literature and in media interviews but has said he envisions a 10 per cent global tax.
Would that apply to Canada?
Neither Canadian officials, nor Trump’s allies, have a clear answer on that. Trump has been vague about which countries and products might be included or exempted.
But Canada’s starting position, as one might expect, is that, no, there should not be penalties on a country — ours — that recently signed a free-trade agreement with Trump, which he has praised repeatedly as the best ever.
“We will have a serious conversation with them if they’re looking to apply that policy to us,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador, told CBC News.
“But I think the starting point is that it shouldn’t — and we have just concluded a deal that is 99 per cent tariff-free,” she said, referring to the new NAFTA.
Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the U.S., led a delegation that consisted of a dozen Canadian consuls-general to various U.S. cities as they met with over 50 members of Congress this week. (CBC)
Tariffs on Canada? Depends who you ask
It’s worth watching Trump’s platform closely, as current polls give him a decent chance of being returned to office in the November election.
Even in Washington there’s no clear consensus on what his policy might ultimately look like. Ask different people about tariffs on Canada, and you’ll get different answers.
“I have a hard time believing that would be the case,” Michigan Republican congressman Bill Huizenga told CBC News. “Especially when it comes to the trade agreement that he negotiated, and led.”
North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer says that’s exactly what he tells Trump: “We talk about these things a fair bit,” he said. “I think we should have a North American strategy. Not a U.S.-only strategy.”
Sen. Kevin Cramer, seen here in 2018 with Trump, says he speaks frequently to the former president and advises him against tariffs within North America. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)
An expert who supports Trump’s tariff policies says he’s not sure this will affect nations with free-trade deals; he suspects it probably will, but adds that Trump is attempting to do something unprecedented under modern law.
“There’s literally no precedent,” said Charles Benoit, a Canadian-born, U.S.-based trade lawyer with Coalition For A Prosperous America, a pro-domestic manufacturing group.
He expects Trump would invoke the Trade Act of 1974. Its section 122 allows a president to set a maximum 15 per cent tariff, for up to 150 days, in the event of a balance-of-payments deficit with other nations, which the U.S. consistently has.
He says Trump could then try extending it, again and again, every 150 days. This would certainly trigger lawsuits, as the law says extending it requires an act of Congress.
Benoit’s advice: Let it lapse for a day, then keep reimposing the tariffs every 151 days.
“I think that that’s something that the president could do. Just do it — [and] do it a second time after letting it lapse,” he said in an interview.
Despite looming threats to Canada-U.S. trade relations from presidential candidate Donald Trump, ‘Team Canada’ is confident American industry leaders know that Canada is ‘essential’ to economic growth in North America, says Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne.
One of Washington’s best-known trade-policy experts over several decades says such behaviour would make a mockery of the language in the bill.
It would be challenged in court, Gary Hufbauer said. Meanwhile, countries would launch retaliatory tariffs.
As for Canada, here’s his prediction: The northern neighbour will get an exclusion, as would Mexico. But it won’t come for free.
He expects Trump to use the threat as a negotiating ploy — a stick to threaten Canada and Mexico into making concessions.
“He will bargain — to get something for that exclusion,” Hufbauer said, noting that when it comes to Trump, “[It’s] all transactional.”
As for what Trump might ask for, he’s already complained, as has the Biden administration, about the way Canada has implemented certain aspects of the new NAFTA. Specifically, dairy and autos.
“Dairy comes up right away,” Hufbauer predicted.
Parsing the words of Trump’s trade czar
One thing Trump has already succeeded at doing is reorienting the American political consensus on trade.
The current Biden administration has maintained most of his policies. The two presidents may differ in style, but they agree substantively on trade.
That philosophy has been articulated at length by Trump’s former trade minister. In his book and several magazine pieces, Robert Lighthizer has laid out some of the tariff policies Trump is now running on.
Trump’s former trade minister Robert Lighthizer, seen here in 2020, remains influential. He has advocated for these tariffs and argued in detail for why the U.S. needs tougher trade policy. (Andrew Harnik/Reuters)
Lighthizer remains in the picture: He’s advising the Trump campaign, and recently said publicly that he intends to be involved in the next administration if Trump wins; either serving in an official role, or as an outside adviser.
His basic argument is that globalization has impoverished the U.S. working class; made the country incapable of producing vital goods; lost manufacturing industries that drive innovation; and left it dependent on a potential military rival (China) for basic everyday products.
He has little patience for people who call the United States protectionist, when it has among the lowest tariffs in the world.
And when it comes to Canada, Lighthizer’s book takes the country to task for seeing itself as a free trader, then adopting “parochial” and “protectionist” policies around everything from dairy to television to telecoms.
He said tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel were useful; Trump imposed them, then lifted them, and threatened to reimpose them.
“The fact that President Trump was willing to impose tariffs on two of America’s closest trading partners — one of whom, Canada, is also one of our closest allies — sent an unmistakable signal that business as usual was over,” Lighthizer wrote in his book, No Trade Is Free.
Canada, Mexico defeat U.S. in auto part rules dispute
Mexico and Canada have won a trade dispute with the United States over rules of origin for auto parts, which could help protect Canadian businesses and jobs.
What next?
The tangible effects of Trump’s trade policies remain in dispute.
Several studies say his tariffs had a minimal positive impact on U.S. jobs, and a minimal harmful impact on the economy and inflation.
One trade economist and historian says Trump’s policies shifted some production from China, primarily to Vietnam and Mexico; meanwhile, China bought more food from Brazil.
“In the political debate, both the benefits and the costs [of tariffs] tend to get exaggerated,” said Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.
But what Trump is proposing now is bigger than his first-term tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office said shaved 0.3 per cent off the U.S. economy.
Trump also wants Congress to pass a law that would allow reciprocal tariffs — massive duties on countries with high tariffs, like India and China.
Trump touts his tariffs on washing machines at an Ohio Whirlpool plant in 2020. A study by economists at the U.S. Federal Reserve says those tariffs created 1,800 jobs, but raised prices on washing machines by about $90. It’s an example of how tariffs had small effects, both positive and negative. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Irwin says the real risk is that in the long term, Trump’s policies could trigger a domino effect, toppling the rules-based trading system, making commerce more political and less predictable and leading to tit-for-tat retaliation. He says countries that rely most heavily on the U.S. for trade are the most vulnerable.
“You’re right to be worried in Canada.”
Benoit takes the opposite view. If Trump managed to enact his entire agenda, with the biggest tariffs on Asia, he says Canada would enjoy a renaissance in manufacturing.
Instead of reflexively opposing some of these policies, he says Canada should offer to team up with Trump to impose similar tariffs against China.
“Canada should say: ‘We’re with you. We’re walking shoulder to shoulder with you,’ ” Benoit said.
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
