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Canada is already preparing for Trump’s potential tariff threats

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Canada staged a large-scale diplomatic deployment this week in preparation for a U.S. presidential election of more consequence than usual.

More than a dozen Canadian diplomats posted in various U.S. cities came to Washington to meet with scores of American lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Looming over their visit was the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. In particular, there’s one Trump policy they’re watching warily this year.

The former president has promised a worldwide tariff on imported goods if he wins. This would be stricter than any trade policy from his first term.

Trump has offered minimal details about the policy in his campaign literature and in media interviews but has said he envisions a 10 per cent global tax.

Would that apply to Canada?

Neither Canadian officials, nor Trump’s allies, have a clear answer on that. Trump has been vague about which countries and products might be included or exempted.

But Canada’s starting position, as one might expect, is that, no, there should not be penalties on a country — ours — that recently signed a free-trade agreement with Trump, which he has praised repeatedly as the best ever.

“We will have a serious conversation with them if they’re looking to apply that policy to us,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador, told CBC News.

“But I think the starting point is that it shouldn’t — and we have just concluded a deal that is 99 per cent tariff-free,” she said, referring to the new NAFTA.

Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador to the U.S., led a delegation that consisted of a dozen Canadian consuls-general to various U.S. cities as they met with over 50 members of Congress this week. (CBC)

Tariffs on Canada? Depends who you ask

It’s worth watching Trump’s platform closely, as current polls give him a decent chance of being returned to office in the November election.

Even in Washington there’s no clear consensus on what his policy might ultimately look like. Ask different people about tariffs on Canada, and you’ll get different answers.

“I have a hard time believing that would be the case,” Michigan Republican congressman Bill Huizenga told CBC News. “Especially when it comes to the trade agreement that he negotiated, and led.”

North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer says that’s exactly what he tells Trump: “We talk about these things a fair bit,” he said. “I think we should have a North American strategy. Not a U.S.-only strategy.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer, seen here in 2018 with Trump, says he speaks frequently to the former president and advises him against tariffs within North America. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)

An expert who supports Trump’s tariff policies says he’s not sure this will affect nations with free-trade deals; he suspects it probably will, but adds that Trump is attempting to do something unprecedented under modern law.

“There’s literally no precedent,” said Charles Benoit, a Canadian-born, U.S.-based trade lawyer with Coalition For A Prosperous America, a pro-domestic manufacturing group.

He expects Trump would invoke the Trade Act of 1974. Its section 122 allows a president to set a maximum 15 per cent tariff, for up to 150 days, in the event of a balance-of-payments deficit with other nations, which the U.S. consistently has.

He says Trump could then try extending it, again and again, every 150 days. This would certainly trigger lawsuits, as the law says extending it requires an act of Congress.

Benoit’s advice: Let it lapse for a day, then keep reimposing the tariffs every 151 days.

“I think that that’s something that the president could do. Just do it — [and] do it a second time after letting it lapse,” he said in an interview.

 

Despite looming threats to Canada-U.S. trade relations from presidential candidate Donald Trump, ‘Team Canada’ is confident American industry leaders know that Canada is ‘essential’ to economic growth in North America, says Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne.

One of Washington’s best-known trade-policy experts over several decades says such behaviour would make a mockery of the language in the bill.

It would be challenged in court, Gary Hufbauer said. Meanwhile, countries would launch retaliatory tariffs.

As for Canada, here’s his prediction: The northern neighbour will get an exclusion, as would Mexico. But it won’t come for free.

He expects Trump to use the threat as a negotiating ploy — a stick to threaten Canada and Mexico into making concessions.

“He will bargain — to get something for that exclusion,” Hufbauer said, noting that when it comes to Trump, “[It’s] all transactional.”

As for what Trump might ask for, he’s already complained, as has the Biden administration, about the way Canada has implemented certain aspects of the new NAFTA. Specifically, dairy and autos.

“Dairy comes up right away,” Hufbauer predicted.

Parsing the words of Trump’s trade czar

One thing Trump has already succeeded at doing is reorienting the American political consensus on trade.

The current Biden administration has maintained most of his policies. The two presidents may differ in style, but they agree substantively on trade.

That philosophy has been articulated at length by Trump’s former trade minister. In his book and several magazine pieces, Robert Lighthizer has laid out some of the tariff policies Trump is now running on.

Trump’s former trade minister Robert Lighthizer, seen here in 2020, remains influential. He has advocated for these tariffs and argued in detail for why the U.S. needs tougher trade policy. (Andrew Harnik/Reuters)

Lighthizer remains in the picture: He’s advising the Trump campaign, and recently said publicly that he intends to be involved in the next administration if Trump wins; either serving in an official role, or as an outside adviser.

His basic argument is that globalization has impoverished the U.S. working class; made the country incapable of producing vital goods; lost manufacturing industries that drive innovation; and left it dependent on a potential military rival (China) for basic everyday products.

He has little patience for people who call the United States protectionist, when it has among the lowest tariffs in the world.

And when it comes to Canada, Lighthizer’s book takes the country to task for seeing itself as a free trader, then adopting “parochial” and “protectionist” policies around everything from dairy to television to telecoms.

He said tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel were useful; Trump imposed them, then lifted them, and threatened to reimpose them.

“The fact that President Trump was willing to impose tariffs on two of America’s closest trading partners — one of whom, Canada, is also one of our closest allies — sent an unmistakable signal that business as usual was over,” Lighthizer wrote in his book, No Trade Is Free.

Canada, Mexico defeat U.S. in auto part rules dispute

 

Mexico and Canada have won a trade dispute with the United States over rules of origin for auto parts, which could help protect Canadian businesses and jobs.

What next?

The tangible effects of Trump’s trade policies remain in dispute.

Several studies say his tariffs had a minimal positive impact on U.S. jobs, and a minimal harmful impact on the economy and inflation.

One trade economist and historian says Trump’s policies shifted some production from China, primarily to Vietnam and Mexico; meanwhile, China bought more food from Brazil.

“In the political debate, both the benefits and the costs [of tariffs] tend to get exaggerated,” said Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.

But what Trump is proposing now is bigger than his first-term tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office said shaved 0.3 per cent off the U.S. economy.

Trump also wants Congress to pass a law that would allow reciprocal tariffs — massive duties on countries with high tariffs, like India and China.

Trump touts his tariffs on washing machines at an Ohio Whirlpool plant in 2020. A study by economists at the U.S. Federal Reserve says those tariffs created 1,800 jobs, but raised prices on washing machines by about $90. It’s an example of how tariffs had small effects, both positive and negative. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)

Irwin says the real risk is that in the long term, Trump’s policies could trigger a domino effect, toppling the rules-based trading system, making commerce more political and less predictable and leading to tit-for-tat retaliation. He says countries that rely most heavily on the U.S. for trade are the most vulnerable.

“You’re right to be worried in Canada.”

Benoit takes the opposite view. If Trump managed to enact his entire agenda, with the biggest tariffs on Asia, he says Canada would enjoy a renaissance in manufacturing.

Instead of reflexively opposing some of these policies, he says Canada should offer to team up with Trump to impose similar tariffs against China.

“Canada should say: ‘We’re with you. We’re walking shoulder to shoulder with you,’ ” Benoit said.

 

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Woman faces fraud charges after theft from Nova Scotia premier’s riding association

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NEW GLASGOW, N.S. – Police in New Glasgow, N.S., say a 44-year-old woman faces fraud charges after funds went missing from the Pictou East Progressive Conservative Association.

New Glasgow Regional Police began the investigation on Oct. 7, after Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston reported that an undisclosed amount of money had gone missing from his riding association’s account.

Police allege that a volunteer who was acting as treasurer had withdrawn funds from the association’s account between 2016 and 2024.

The force says it arrested Tara Amanda Cohoon at her Pictou County, N.S., residence on Oct. 11.

They say investigators seized mobile electronic devices, bank records and cash during a search of the home.

Cohoon has since been released and is to appear in Pictou provincial court on Dec. 2 to face charges of forgery, uttering a forged document, theft over $5,000 and fraud over $5,000.

Police say their investigation remains ongoing.

Houston revealed the investigation to reporters on Oct. 9, saying he felt an “incredible level of betrayal” over the matter.

The premier also said a volunteer he had known for many years had been dismissed from the association and the party.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Nova Scotia company fined $80,000 after worker dies in scaffolding collapse

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PICTOU, N.S. – A Nova Scotia excavation company has been fined $80,000 after a worker died when scaffolding collapsed on one of its job sites.

In a decision released Wednesday, a Nova Scotia provincial court judge in Pictou, N.S., found the failure by Blaine MacLane Excavation Ltd. to ensure scaffolding was properly installed led to the 2020 death of Jeff MacDonald, a self-employed electrician.

The sentence was delivered after the excavation company was earlier found guilty of an infraction under the province’s Occupational Health and Safety Act.

Judge Bryna Hatt said in her decision she found the company “failed in its duty” to ensure that pins essential to the scaffolding’s stability were present at the work site.

Her decision said MacDonald was near the top of the structure when it collapsed on Dec. 9, 2020, though the exact height is unknown.

The judge said that though the excavation company did not own the scaffolding present on its job site, there was no evidence the company took steps to prevent injury, which is required under legislation.

MacDonald’s widow testified during the trial that she found her husband’s body at the job site after he didn’t pick up their children as planned and she couldn’t get in touch with him over the phone.

Julie MacDonald described in her testimony how she knew her husband had died upon finding him due to her nursing training, and that she waited alone in the dark for emergency responders to arrive after calling for help.

“My words cannot express how tragic this accident was for her, the children, and their extended family,” Hatt wrote in the sentencing decision.

“No financial penalty will undo the damage and harm that has been done, or adequately represent the loss of Mr. MacDonald to his family, friends, and our community.”

In addition to the $80,000 fine, the New Glasgow-based company must also pay a victim-fine surcharge of $12,000 and provide $8,000 worth of community service to non-profits in Pictou County.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Remains of missing Kansas man found at scene of western Newfoundland hotel fire

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Investigators found the remains of a 77-year-old American man on Wednesday at the scene of a fire that destroyed a hotel in western Newfoundland on the weekend.

Eugene Earl Spoon, a guest at the hotel, was visiting Newfoundland from Kansas. His remains were found Wednesday morning during a search of the debris left behind after the fire tore through the Driftwood Inn in Deer Lake, N.L., on Saturday, the RCMP said in a news release.

“RCMP (Newfoundland and Labrador) extends condolences to the family and friends of the missing man,” the news release said.

Spoon was last seen Friday evening in the community of about 4,800 people in western Newfoundland. The fire broke out early Saturday morning, the day Spoon was reported missing.

Several crews from the area fought the flames for about 16 hours before the final hot spot was put out, and police said Wednesday that investigators are still going through the debris.

Meanwhile, the provincial Progressive Conservative Opposition reiterated its call for a wider review of what happened.

“Serious questions have been raised about the fire, and the people deserve answers,” Tony Wakeham, the party’s leader, said in a news release Wednesday. “A thorough investigation must be conducted to determine the cause and prevent such tragedies in the future.”

The party has said it spoke to people who escaped the burning hotel, and they said alarm and sprinkler systems did not seem to have been activated during the fire. However, Stephen Rowsell, the Deer Lake fire chief, has said there were alarms going off when crews first arrived.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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