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Canada is flattening the coronavirus curve. That’s ‘good news,’ expert explains – Global News

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Canadians have closed schools and shut down large parts of the economy to deal with the threat of the novel coronavirus.

Encouragingly, public health experts say that a graph of positive tests shows that the sacrifice is working.

“This is a good-news graph,” says Steven Hoffman of York University.

“The good news is that it’s not a straight line and that it’s actually curving downwards, which is exactly what we would want to see. These lines don’t show that the outbreak is ending. The number of cases might be going up. It’s just not going up as fast as we would have expected in the absence of intervention.”

The University of Toronto’s Ashleigh Tuite agrees.

“Overall, it’s a positive graph,” she says. “All the provinces are bending — you want them to be as flat as possible. They are all headed in the right direction, which is a positive sign.”

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The graph above will continue to be updated as new data becomes available.

Epidemiologists use graphs like this in part to see how long it takes infections to double — the longer the period, the better.

“That’s just a convenient way to think about it: there’s nothing special about doubling,” Hoffman says.

“You could also say how many days it it is before it gets 10 times bigger. It’s a helpful measure of the pace of what we’re trying to slow down. At this point, our focus is not on stopping the spread of an outbreak but slowing down how fast it spreads.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done


Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario health official says province has ‘bent the curve’ but more work must be done

The graph below is identical to the graph above, except for the addition of reference lines. These lines allow you to compare provincial trends against common doubling rates.

Doubling every two days, the dotted line on the left-hand side of the graph, would be a “very bad sign,” Hoffman says.

“The average we’re seeing in the world is four and a half to five days per doubling. If we could get it down to a doubling every week or so, that would be better than the rest of the world and totally change the severity of the outbreak in a very good way.”

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Slowing the outbreak is crucial because it gives the medical system time to cope. If the number of cases becomes unmanageable at a given time, doctors are forced to make harsh choices.

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“The scary thing becomes when the curve goes above the system capacity because that’s when doctors have to start making resource allocation decisions, which are probably among the very worst decisions that anyone could ever have to make,” Hoffman says.


READ MORE:
One will live, one will die — How Canada is preparing for tough coronavirus choices

Urgently, we need to measure the coronavirus as a problem, but every way we have to measure it has to be seen with an understanding of its flaws.

Daily totals of cases (used in the charts above) seem like the most obvious and up-to-date number to look at. As a way of measuring the scale of the problem, though, these are distorted by the uneven availability of tests and the fact that some provinces test much more than others.

Deaths and hospitalizations are in some ways better but can reflect infections that happened three or four weeks ago.

The graph below shows the growth trend of COVID-19 deaths for each province with more than 30 deaths due to the illness.

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The numbers are crucial because we have few other tools to answer life-and-death questions, among them: is the huge dislocation caused by largely shutting down society helping to slow the virus, and if so, to what extent? If we were to reopen the economy, how would we know if that was the right decision?

A sharp rise in positive cases could show that the problem is getting worse — or that our knowledge about it is getting better.

“Normally, when you test more, you’re going to find more cases,” says the University of Toronto’s Colin Furness.

“It would be even better if we tested more and didn’t. All you’re doing is saying: ‘There’s an iceberg out there.’ Some portion of the iceberg is visible, and we are measuring that. That doesn’t say anything about the iceberg — it simply quantifies what you can already see.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier


Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario hits first COVID-19 testing target, says premier

If we had the resources, Tuite says, we would ideally test people in a broad cross-section of society in a system somewhat like jury duty.

Quebec has suffered more than the rest of Canada because of “bad luck,” Furness says.

“They got some super-spreading, clearly. They got a big dose of virus-laden people. Sometimes, you only need a couple of people with lots of contact,” he says.

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“Their March break was a week early. The point at which, Canada-wide, we started closing schools and so forth, was a week too late for Quebec. If they’d just done it a week earlier, and if Ontario had done its stuff a week earlier — days matter.”

Quebec also tested more extensively, Tuite explains.

“If you look at the first five days since their 100th confirmed case, they have this very, very rapid growth in cases, and what that reflects is the fact that early on, they had a really large increase in testing that they were doing in their population. That gets to the messiness of the data,” she says.


READ MORE:
Blaine Higgs suggests N.B. could be first province to reopen as no coronavirus cases reported Thursday

The Maritimes, on the other hand, have had a gentler time of it, at least so far.

“When you look at the Atlantic provinces — New Brunswick, P.E.I. — they didn’t have bad luck, and part of that is that they don’t have big international airports, so there’s less opportunity to have bad luck, and they started closing stuff down when Ontario started closing stuff down,” Furness says. “Lo and behold, they’re kind of done. The spread never really happened.”

At what point will the data tell us that can we start to lift restrictions? All the experts Global News talked to said there wasn’t a clear standard.

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“The reality is that it’s going to be trial and error, and I don’t think that putting a timeline on it is helpful,” Tuite says.

“If you look at how rapidly the situation has changed — every week feels like a month, or longer, in terms of how things change. Our understanding changes of where we are in the epidemic curve.”


The charts above are logarithmic charts.

In a traditional chart, like the one below, the vertical axis is divided evenly: 10, 20, 30. In a logarithmic chart, the vertical axis accelerates by a factor of 10: 10, 100, 1,000 and so forth. Logarithmic charts show change better, but you have to bear the distortion in mind.

You can see charts like this for dozens of countries here.

Here is what a more traditional chart of known infections looks like:

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Virginia Democrats advance efforts to protect abortion, voting rights, marriage equality

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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.

The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.

“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”

The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.

“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”

The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.

“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.

Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.

Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.

It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.

“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.

If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.

The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.

As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.

Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.

“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.

The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.

___

Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

___

Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.

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Vancouver Canucks winger Joshua set for season debut after cancer treatment

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua is set to make his season debut Thursday after missing time for cancer treatment.

Head coach Rick Tocchet says Joshua will slot into the lineup Thursday when Vancouver (8-3-3) hosts the New York Islanders.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., was diagnosed with testicular cancer this summer and underwent surgery in early September.

He spoke earlier this month about his recovery, saying it had been “very hard to go through” and that he was thankful for support from his friends, family, teammates and fans.

“That was a scary time but I am very thankful and just happy to be in this position still and be able to go out there and play,,” Joshua said following Thursday’s morning skate.

The cancer diagnosis followed a career season where Joshua contributed 18 goals and 14 assists across 63 regular-season games, then added four goals and four assists in the playoffs.

Now, he’s ready to focus on contributing again.

“I expect to be good, I don’t expect a grace period. I’ve been putting the work in so I expect to come out there and make an impact as soon as possible,” he said.

“I don’t know if it’s going to be perfect right from the get-go, but it’s about putting your best foot forward and working your way to a point of perfection.”

The six-foot-three, 206-pound Joshua signed a four-year, US$13-million contract extension at the end of June.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump chooses anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary

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NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.

He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.

The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.

A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.

With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”

It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.

Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.

He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.

HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.

__ Seitz reported from Washington.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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