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Canada is heading towards a 'Delta-driven' fourth wave, Tam says – CTV News

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OTTAWA —
Canada is headed towards a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, but how severe of a resurgence it’ll be depends on how many people are fully vaccinated, warns new national modelling released Friday.

The country is seeing an increase in new COVID-19 cases, and thousands more infections are predicted if contacts aren’t contained, the modelling indicates.

The new picture on Canada’s pandemic trajectory shows the serious threat the highly-contagious Delta variant is posing, and the risk that the unvaccinated may be to the country being thrust into a fourth wave of the disease.

“The updated longer-range forecast shows how the epidemic trajectory may evolve through early September. It suggests that we are at the start of the Delta-driven fourth wave, but that the trajectory will depend on ongoing increases in fully vaccinated coverage, and the timing, pace and extent of reopening,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said.

After weeks of sustained decline in new cases, the Public Health Agency of Canada is warning that if community-wide contact rates increase too quickly with ongoing reopening efforts, the long-term forecast indicates Canada could experience a “stronger resurgence” of the virus.

Ultimately, factoring in the spread of Delta, hospital capacity could be exceeded this fall or winter if more people don’t get vaccinated, the modelling indicates.

The predominance of the Delta variant “underscores the need for high vaccination coverage and continued caution as restrictions are eased,” the modelling states.

The Public Health Agency of Canada’s aim is to see as many eligible Canadians vaccinated this summer as possible. As of midday Friday, 80.5 per cent of those eligible have received a first dose, while 65.8 per cent of those eligible are now fully vaccinated.

“If we can get to 90 [per cent vaccinated], I’ll be popping over the champagne for sure,” Tam said.

The new data predicts that in the short-term, the case count will continue to increase, meaning the country could see between 2,700 and 11,800 new cases over the next week or so. As of midday Friday, there have been 1,429,937 reported cases nationwide, and by Aug. 8 that number could grow to between 1,432,555 to 1,441,610 cases.

One sign that Canada’s case counts are on an upward trajectory: the national “Rt” or effective reproduction number, recently started trending above one around mid-July, meaning there are “early signs of epidemic growth” in some regions. This comes after the “Rt” had remained out of a growth pattern since April.

“If the ‘Rt’ remains persistently above one for several weeks, with the predominance of the highly contagious Delta variant, we could expect to see a return to rapid epidemic growth, particularly as measures that slow the spread are eased,” said Tam.

PHAC says it saw a five-fold increase in the proportion of Delta cases in June, reminding that Delta cases have an increased risk for hospitalization, and has reduced vaccine effectiveness against a symptomatic infection. Further, the majority of the Delta cases in Canada are in those who are unvaccinated, or are partially vaccinated.

“People seem to be, in certain areas, tired and forgetting about science, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Lisa Barrett, an infectious disease expert and assistant professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, in an interview on CTV News Channel.

“We know at this point that we are going to live with the virus… however we don’t have enough data, information, vaccination, ways to treat this virus… we don’t have enough of that knowledge yet to expect to treat this just like another respiratory virus,” she continued.

89.7 PER CENT OF CASES UNVACCINATED

In an indication that the vaccines are working, the modelling does not anticipate the rate of new deaths to increase along with the uptick in new cases.

The modelling shows that regionally, hospitalization rates remain low, with fewer than one per cent of reported cases and fewer than one per cent of hospitalized cases occurring in people who are fully vaccinated.

The flipside of this statistic though, is that 89.7 per cent of all cases are occurring in eligible, but unvaccinated people, and 84.9 per cent of hospitalized cases are people who are unvaccinated. Another 5.3 per cent of cases are in those who are not yet eligible for vaccines, and 4.6 per cent of infections are in those who are partially vaccinated.

Tam said it’s also mostly those who are unvaccinated who are dying after contracting COVID-19.

The federal health officials are now pushing to see a marked increase in vaccination rates in younger populations, warning that if they don’t increase in the coming months, Canada could face a “serious resurgence” this fall or winter.

Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo called out the approximately 6.3 million eligible Canadians who have yet to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated.

“What are you waiting for?” said Njoo. “This is all very preventable if people go forward and get vaccinated, so let’s go for it. Let’s go.”

Generally speaking, the rate of vaccination decreases in each younger demographic. During the early stages of the rollout, older generations were often prioritized for vaccination ahead of younger ones.

As of last week the percentages in each age group who are fully vaccinated are:

  • 89 per cent of those aged 70 or older;
  • 81 per cent of those aged 60-69;
  • 70 per cent of those aged 50-59;
  • 63 per cent of those aged 40-49;
  • 54 per cent of those aged 30 to 39;
  • 46 per cent of those aged 18 to 29; and
  • 37 per cent of those aged 12 to 17.

The data also breaks down how each province stacks up on vaccination rates, with Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta still having the farthest to go in terms of fully vaccinating its eligible population, while the Yukon and Northwest Territories continue to lead the nation in vaccination rates.

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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